Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Eight is Enough. Maybe Nine.


Was it Kierkegaard or Dick Van Patten who said, "If you label me, you negate me?" My money's on Dick - he was a true genius. Perhaps he is best remembered by his ABC "hit" "Eight is Enough", starring future tattooed freak and Scott Baio compadre, Willie Aames and future typical child star Adam Rich. Thanks for your continued contributions to society, sirs! Yes, as a child of the 70's, I watched this show. It's amazing what you could get kids to watch if you have enough likable characters and maybe a few kids on it - are they doing this today? Is this why there is a Bill Engvall show?

Anyway, "Eight is Enough" took place in one of the loveliest little glens that the NBA likes to call home, Sacramento. I drove through Sacramento once. It was foggy. Is their arena deal done? Because I would love for this team to move to Las Vegas, be the Las Vegas Kings, have at least 4 jerseys (club, diamond, heart, spade, maybe Elvis too). Nobody in their right mind gambles on the NBA, you can take it off the books. But back to the Kings and all their Arco Arena splendor. This is another crappy NBA team (John Wall, start your condo search now), but has people worthy of drafting in a standard 12 x 13 league.

Martin! Kevin Martin is second/third round talent. You need to know that. Here are the pertinent numbers from last year: 24.6 ppg; 86.7 FT% @ 10.3 ftapg; 2.3 3pg. There he is, your pure shooting guard to plug in your SG spot. Of course, you'll notice that I mentioned only three categories - chances are you'll have nine, so I guess you're about six shy. Excuse-flippin'-me, we can't all be LeBron James! He'd be a really good roto pick, in that he could counteract a lot of, say Dwight Howard's deficiencies. Then again, he has played 51 and 61 games the last 2 seasons, so that may not work so well either. You'll have a lot of hand wringing with Kevin this year if you are debating drafting him. If it gets to be late in the 3rd round and he's available, go ahead and grab him if your team is set up to handle him. Or maybe you can go for the Kevin-Heaven strategy by picking Durant, Garnett, and Martin in the first 3 rounds. That will work for ya.

Depending on how you rank players, possibly the next best King is Francisco Garcia. Everyone likes players who can average 1 steal/1 block/ 1 three-pointer a game, right kids? Well Garcia done did that last year. You know who did that last year? LeBron, Wade, Granger and Garcia. So if you're stuck on who to pick in the first round, you should go with the Dominican, right? Um, yeah. He may not start, but he will get minutes. He's not a scorer, and while he gets the counting numbers, he won't rack them up. He's got more value in roto, too, but if you've got a strategy where you're punting points, he's a definite have. For instance, you're picking in the middle of round 1 and you start off with Danny Granger (I know, you're punting points, but still he does other things well), come back with Gerald Wallace, maybe a Josh Smith and/or Shawn Marion, grab a decent mid-tier PG who can pass, pick up Wilson Chandler in rd. 6 or 7, then you've got a lineup that can do some damage in any week. Oh, and when you draft Garcia, you have to say "Bring me the head of Francisco Garcia." It's one of Yahoo's new rules.

If you do your rankings another way, the next best King is Spencer Hawes. This guy will get thirty minutes a night probably. He can score a little, board a good amount, decent but not great from the field, not a FT shooter, should get slightly more than a block per game. Not bad numbers for the center position. But there are a couple sneaky things there with Hawes. Dude had 40 three's last year - look at who went all Memo Okur on us! And after Brad Miller was traded, he went for 20 points/10 boards five times and had several other games where he was close. I'm telling you, no one will come into your draft thinking of explicitly grabbing Hawes. And when he comes off the board, you likely won't even be thinking of him - not because he will be overdrafted, just that he's so far off of the consciousness of the NBA fan. At least tell me you'll think of him, okay?

Jason Thompson plays basketball for the Sacramento Kings as well. He's another one of those PF/C's who doesn't score much and can rebound and grabs some of your counting stats. Free throws, not so much. The things that stands out for me was that after Brad Miller was traded, Jason had 10 games of where he grabbed 10 or more rebounds. Man, was Miller a drag on this team or what? Again, this is another King you won't necessarily be thinking of come draft day. Keep him on your watch list in those shallow leagues.

Man, I would have loved to have seen Ricky Rubio in Kings purple. I guess Tyreke Evans ain't so bad neither. Anything that will push Beno Udrih further down the bench is okey dokey with me. The big thing with Evans is that he should get to the line a ton as that's his calling card. It would certainly help things if he could learn to hit the NBA 3, as Martin is really the only threat from long range. I'm rooting for him, just not about to draft him.

He's gritty, he'll hustle, and dammit, he'll work his way into the lineup. Keep living the dream, you 42% shooting Andres Nocioni. Oh, and Sean May sweats hollandaise sauce. There, that's eight Kings, that should be enough. Okay, nine. Kenny Thomas has one significant number - $8,553,125, the value of his expiring contract. That could shake up the lineup come February, when the Kings should be out of it, so watch their numbers at that time.

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Give Me The Rock mock draft

The mock draft for readers and whatnot has just started, and this humble writer has selection #1. Even though it's being done be Google spreadsheet, I took less than the allotted Yahoo time of 90 seconds to make the 1.1 selection of Chris Paul. It's a shame that I have to wait so long to back him up, but with picks 24/25, I can do some serious damage - 2 more guards, 2 bigs, one of each, or 2 scorers, or 2 hustle cat guys. I'm really excited about what CP3 can do this year. Now dance, Honey Bees!

(picture from SI.com)

Friday, September 25, 2009

One Game at a Time


"One Day at a Time" was a sitcom in the on CBS in the 70's and the early 80's. Now I was a kid then, and I watched plenty of TV and I know I watched this show because I remember Valerie Bertinelli, Bonnie Franklin, Mackenzie Phillips, a bunch of other guys, and of course Schneider. Since it was written and produced by TV legend Norman Lear, it was a comedy that dealt with "serious" issues of the day, feminism, drugs, yadda yadda yadda. But for the life of me, I can't remember one episode or line of dialogue from this show. All I can picture is "Family Guy" spoofing it and the theme song. How is a show on for nine years and have no lasting memories or hipster ironic nostalgia? "Ally McBeal" was only on for five seasons - at least they had a dancing baby. I've got an odd curiosity to go into hulu.com and check out some old episodes, maybe if Sunday's 4pm NFL games are boring.

What does this have to do with fantasy hoops? Well, ODAAT was/is the only show I can think of, sitcom or otherwise, to take place in Indianapolis. I guess Louisville wouldn't give them tax breaks or something. ODAAT ran for 9 unmemorable seasons; the Pacers, since the 2000 Finals, have had 9 unmemorable seasons as well (Malice at the Palace notwithstanding). A TV legend Norman Lear ran the show withoud spectacular results. Larry Bird, what's your next move? Oh, and Schneider, the building superintendent could do it all, including throwing out double entendres. Ladies and gentlemen, Danny Granger!

Yes, Danny Granger can do it all on your fantasy team, and is a likely 1st round pick.
[25.8 ppg, 2.7 3pg, 5.1 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.0 spg, 1.4 bpg, 2.5 topg, 44.7 FG% @ 19.0 fgapg, 87.8 FT% @ 6.9 ftapg] I'll say it now: you can win your league if you've picked Danny Granger in the first round, but you won't win your league because you picked Danny Granger in the first round. Granger is a guy you want if you want to stay away from those "win every week 6-3 and punt a few categories" in head to head strategies. You can now go a lot of ways if you grab Granger in round 1 - Yahoo has him averagely drafted at 7.1; standard league, so who you take at 18 will show how you want to go about things for the year. If you look at who is listed 15-25 in average draft position, you can get a good direction for your team: Jefferson, Billups, Duncan, Nash, Butler, Jamison, Calderon, Iguodala, Joe Johnson, Harris, Kidd. You take a big, Granger is your SG, and got a nice big leaning lineup. You take a small, Granger is your SF and you can have a solid small leaning lineup. The point is, you take Granger, you can go a few ways - just like Schneider (c'mon, look at his mustache and rolled up cigarette pack, he's a disco backing track away from dancing next to an Indian chief and a dude in leather chaps!).

Ooh, here's a nifty fantasy player, Troy Murphy. Perhaps you remember him from hits such as "I Was The Second In The League In Rebounds - No, Really!", "I'm Big and I Shoot Threes - The Bill Laimbeer Story", and "Dial D for Downtown". I'll say it now: you can win your league if you've picked Troy Murphy in the second round, but you won't win your league because you picked Troy Murphy in the second round. Again, he's another player where you'll need help around him, but he can provide you a nice base. I'm not 100% sold he'll put up similar numbers to last year, but anyone who has the possibility of putting up 2 three's a night and 10+ rebounds a night can be a fantasy star. We have seen his ceiling, so I'm not going to be surprised if he's not 2nd in the league in rebounds. Like Valerie Bertinelli post this show, I think we've seen the peak, and it's not going to get better.

Well, Mike Dunleavy's season was a waste last year. He's not going to reach his status of last year of 4th/5th round-ness, but if you need a scorer who can put in some threes, he'll do nicely. Hopefully, your draft is after he's had a few preseason games under his belt so you know he can play. I wonder if he has daddy issues like "One Day at a Time"'s Mackenzie Phillips. Dear God of all that is green on this earth I hope not.

I'll say it now: you can win your league if TJ Ford is on your roster, but it will be because you have TJ Ford on your bench on your roster. He's not a three point shooter, he'll steal a little but not a lot, he doesn't pass it enough, he'll turn it over more than he needs to, and he'll hoodwink someone in your league because they'll say, "hey, he's the starting PG for a kinda-up-and-down team, that's a good pick." I can't have him as one of my top 2 guards; good luck for you.

Jeff Foster or Roy Hibbert are going to be getting center minutes for the Pacers. That is one mighty deep league you are playing in. Yes, they will rebound, and the guy in his 11th year will do it better.

NBA career total points: Josh McRoberts - 92; Tyler Hansbrough - 0. I believe that argument is settled. With Dahntay Jones on the Pacers roster, they have 3 Dukies, and we're not even talking about Bobby Hurley playing for Indiana University in Blue Chips. I'll let all y'all make a joke containing the following words: Pacers, Duke, white, scrappy, suck, gritty, pasty, Gene Hackman, Ollie, miss the playoffs, and can't jump.

I miss Marquis Daniels and Jarrett Jack on this team, since they at least had some fantasy value. Travis Diener and Solomon Jones - less so. Although I will keep an eye on Luther Head and Brandon Rush.

I look forward to a few Pacers games this year, as I feel I'll be saddled with Troy Murphy on at least one of my teams and I'll be mildly underwhelmed. Up next on my crappy team preview - the Sacramento Kings.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

16 blocks down, 2 blocks over from "30 Rock"

I was reading this preview of one of the squadrons in the National Basketball Association. We get it, the Knicks suck. But man, sucky teams are fantasy gold, Jerry, gold! That's what I love about fantasy hoops - not every team has a LeBron or Kobe, but everyone has a gunner like Al Harrington or numbers guy like Gerald Wallace or all the guys who do stuff for Golden State. You win fantasy leagues by following the crappy teams. Last year I had 8 different Thunder players (I still don't know what to call them - Thunderers? Thunderinos? Thundi?) on my 4 teams last year, and they all had their moments (yes, even Kyle Weaver, not so much Chris Wilcox).

The point is, I get a lot more enjoyment out of the bad teams in fantasy hoops - they'll put up numbers, and if you've got some less than hardcore guys in your league, you'll get the jump on them because they don't know about the next Andris Biedrins or Francisco Garcia because they're watching Cavs-Heat for the third time this year on a Sunday on ABC (consult local listings). So today, I want to look at one of those sucky teams that can give you fantasy joy, the New York Knickerbockers. A few years ago, there was a little sitcom on NBC that was supposed to be horrible, but now is pulling in Emmy after freakin' Emmy, and not just those technical ones that no one cares about. They've got quality up and down the lineup; in my sitcom characters fantasy league, I grabbed Jack Donaghy, came right back with Tracy Jordan, grabbed Judah Friedlander's Frank in the late middle, and grabbed Grizz (but couldn't get Dot Com). Someone reached for Kenneth the Page - solid, a tad overrated. What, you're not in a sitcom fantasy league? You're missing out. With Barney Stinson, I could have my best year since '87 when I had Alex Keaton, Dan Fielding, Blanche Devereaux, Woody Boyd, Jackee, and Agnes DiPesto (yes, we had "Moonlighting" as a comedy). Anyway, back to the Knicks.

With Mike D'Antoni as the Jack Donaghy-like man in charge, the pace will be high. Only the Warriors had more possessions per game than the Knicks. But the Knicks were far enough away from being the highest scoring team in the league, so what does that mean? Rebounds and some more rebounds. If you're looking for boards in a week, keep an eye on teams that play the Knicks twice withing a fantasy week. Right now, there are 3: Charlotte in week 8, Chicago in week 17 (right after All Star break) and Philly in week 21 (which may or may not be in your playoffs depending on how you set it up). [Note: Detroit has a back-to-back with New York, but that is spread over 2 fantasy weeks.] Gerald Wallace might be nice to have in week 8; Tyson Chandler, if healthy, may be available at that time, so he could be a good FA pickup then. Any of the Bulls in their 4/5 spot roster mish-mosh is a solid play for week 17 (except for Jerome James). And someone is going to be grabbing loose balls in March for the Sixers - wouldn't it be nice if Marreese Speights or someone like him was doing it for your squad?

But back to the Knicks themselves. Rebounds are out there, and the main rebounding guy (on a sad rebounding team) was and is David Lee. After a sluggish 2-1/2 week stretch in November last season (where he went for 10.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg, and 54 FG% on 8 shots a game), he turned in a season where he posted double digits averages in scoring (16.0) and double digits in rebounding (11.7, third in the league) - I believe the kids call this a "double-double". Now me, I love Davey more than the next guy, but since he doesn't block the ball and doesn't shoot 3's like a Troy Murphy, he's kind of a tough fit on your typical roster. Lee has to be on a roster where he can amplify, like Ando on "Heroes". You don't want him on your small-ball team because his strengths are FG%, boards, and lack of TO's - things you'll be tanking for this type of team. Let's say you have pick #1 and you take Chris Paul (since he's goodish and all). Also, say your team so far is Chris Paul, Joe Johnson, and Jason Kidd (picks 1 and around 24 and 25 average draft position in Yahoo drafts). Lee is not your best choice at 48 (Lee's average pick is at 47.9). But if your team is Paul, Calderon, and Jamison, you can handle Lee at 48% since your FG% will be solid, FT% has a base, TO's not bad even with 2 top PG's, steals you'll be nice in, and you've got roster flexibility as Jamison is SF/PF and Lee is PF/C. Your team can go small or big depending on picks 49, 72, and 73. Monta Ellis at SG could give you a serious backcourt; plenty of centers go in round 5 and load up on bigs. And there's a chance that Dave could get SF eligibility like he did early last year. Of course, 24/25 is too early to get Lee, and 48/49 may be too late. He might fit better on your team if you are picking late in round 1 (and thus you probably went big Amar'e or Jefferson or even Gasol). The point is, with Lee, even though he is center-eligible, it's better for your team if he isn't in one of your center spots.

The next Knick dude is Al Harrington. You have to give a tip of the hat to Messrs. D'Antoni and Nelson, as he would be much much much less of a player if he were not center eligible. Let's look at what he is from last year: 20.1 ppg, 2.3 3pg, 79.3 FT at 4 attempts per game. Also, his 1.2 spg is rather handy. The knocks on him, using last years numbers, are 43.9 FG% (on 16.6 attempts per game), 6.2 rpg, 2.2 topg, and 0.3 bpg, all of which are very un-center-like. In fact, those numbers are very Ben Gordon-like, and it's kind of tough to win consistently when you have Ben Gordon. But if Al's your center, you are going pure small ball for 6-3/5-4 type wins. Sure, you say you want to go small-ball, guy who drafts Troy Murphy in round 3 (or Vishnu help you, round 2), but you can still backdoor into rebounds because he was, like, 2nd in the league per game. If Al's one of your 2 centers (standard 12 team, 13 player, 2 centers play league), maybe Il Mago your other C, you are dead on straight small ball, punting boards, blocks, and FG%, maybe even TO's. You're going to need steals to pull this off, but if you have a guard like Paul or Wade, you are wasting Paul's FG% base and Wade's FG% and blocks bases. Here's a few small-ball possibilities you can have where you would take Harrington.

Middle of first round - you take Kobe, Durant, or Granger
Middle of second round - you take a PG without a great FG% - Billups, Kidd, or Arenas
Middle of third round - you take an SG/SF who can hit threes or steal - Wallace or Jamison

or

End of first round - you take Deron Williams or Brandon Roy
Beginning of second round - you take one of the above PG's
End of third round - Wallace or Jamison or a scorer w/o a great FG% - Vince Carter or Kevin Martin.

Harrington is not a bad fit on either one of those teams, but if you are fumbling through your draft and Harrington is the highest player left on you hastily arranged pre-draft rankings, taking him is a sure way to screw up your team.

Third on the list of Knicks you can use is Wilson Chandler. He got the 1 three per game (1.3), but was knocking on the door of the 1-1-1 club by coming up a hair shy in blocks (0.9) and steals (0.9). He's SG/SF eligible in Yahoo!, so he can be a solid addition in your big-ball or small-ball or balanced team. He got 33 minutes per game last year, and since the roster is not particularly deep, he should get near those minutes again. FG percentage is a killer at around 43% for his short career; anything approaching 45 would greatly improve his value, since he puts up a decent amount per game. Chandler's value improves when he is joined with other 1-1-1 guys, like a Durant or Wade or Granger led team and/or one with Shawn Marion. If he's a guard in your lineup, he's got a great rebound rate and a nice asset to a big ball team. With the Knicks having the most 4-game weeks of any team in the association (same as New Orleans, 13), guys who can fill up the hustle categories these weeks have an added benefit. He's going to be a good value pick in the middle of the draft - I'm looking at round 6, but not earlier.

Another guy you could consider drafting in the starter portion of your draft (top 10 rounds x 12 teams = top 120) is Nate Robinson, KryptoNate. He'll shoot 3's, steal it, score a decent amount, you know, all point guardy stuff except the real point guardy stuff, passing the ball. He's going to shoot about 14 or 15 times a night, so if he's on your team, you better be able to handle it. He's a nice guy to have on your team if you've got scorers and need to fill some other categories; you'll probably need a guy like Chris Anderson or Ronny Turiaf as well.

Chris Duhon is the last Knick you can feel decent about drafting, if only because you're in the bench part of your draft. Like a lot of Knicks, he'll make less than 45% of his shots, but at least he's passing it to other guys who will make less than 45% of their shots. He'll make a few 3's (though this one still grinds my gears). Again, with NYK having all those 4-game weeks, he won't be a bad guy to have on your bench to plug in at the right time.

The rest of the team has chances to be fantasy valuable. Danilo Gallinari had some brief flashes when his wasn't hurt with his neck and/or his back. If he's healthy, there's your source for bench 3's. Toney Douglas could be a backcourt defensive specialist - with PT, he could be a poor man's Mario Chalmers. Hey, look, it's Jared Jeffries. And I'm rooting for Larry Hughes have a few good games, just for someone to pick him up then proceed to throw out some 2-11's with no 3's and no steals. Maybe he'll be relevant again so this website starts back up.

And for pure entertainment value (as in not on my team but fun to look at crappy box scores entertainment), Darko Milicic and Eddy Curry are out there, ready to be picked up.

So you see, the Knicks are a crappy team, but they provide a lot of fantasy-ness, more so, I think, than a good to great team like the Cavaliers. I'll look at some more crappy teams up until the season start. Next, the Indiana Pacers.

Friday, September 18, 2009

09/10 Schedules - Pacific Division

This division has everything! The defending champs, a rebuilding team headed for the lottery, a team with a coach who could play anyone and everyone and still finish 11th, and a couple of veteran-laden teams that will make a good push but will most likely be making hotel reservations before a game on in mid-April (as a best case scenario). Let's see how their schedules look for the upcoming fantasy season.

Golden State

4-game weeks: 10
Minimum game weeks: 1
Playoff schedule: 4-3-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 1 - teams also at minimum this week: IND, MIL, UTA

Week one is rough, but after that, you can get a lot of mileage out of Golden State. They never play more than two 4-game weeks in a row, and they have a span of four weeks from mid-Dec. to mid-Jan. where they play 3-games. Their style of play, though, can often make a Golden State 3-game week as valuable, if not more so, as a 4-game week for a team like Detroit. The key here is figuring out who is getting the minutes (and where, if extra position eligibility helps you (for Yahoo leagues whose position eligibilities are quite fluid to your benefit, not ESPN whose leagues lock in eligibility at the start of the season (let me know if they changed this from last year))). Captain Jack led the league in minutes played last year; he'd be the first one you could count on playing a lot, but him playing a lot equals him missing shots a lot and him turning it over a lot. #2 is Monta Ellis. If you were going to target a Warrior, he's the one you want. The last 2 months of the year, he was a top 25 player. He's not going to give you three's, but rebounds and steals the ball quite well for a PG. If someone in your league drafts Derrick Rose ahead of him, say thank you very much and take all moped jokes in stride. Right now on Yahoo! drafts, Ellis is being taken 9 spots behind Rose (40.3 vs. 49.3). Ray Zalinski's American Public is putting too much stock into round 1 of last year's playoffs against the Celtics, I think.

Andris Biedrins is the Warriors other top 50ish player. I think you know what you are getting with him by now. And if someone asks you for your sleeper, don't say Anthony Randolph. Not that he's not a fine player, but maybe you'll be in a league where everyone kinda forgets about him. Stephen Curry is another player on my rookie hold list. Feel free to draft him in the "bench" level of your draft; I don't think he'll have any real value until playing rotations shake out (good luck in that on the Nelson bench) or until the inevitable Corey Maggette injury.

The Warriors schedule is such that it precludes picking someone up for a 3 or 4 week run of 4-gamers. But picking up a hot Warrior is now de rigeur for fantasy players this half of the decade, so you have to keep an eye out for Azubuike, Morrow, Watson, Turiaf, and Wright. What, I didn't mention Acie Law or Speedy Claxton or Devean George? Yeah, how 'bout them Clippers!

Los Angeles Clippers

4-game weeks: 12
Minimum game weeks: 3
Playoff schedule: 3-4-3-2

Week 6 - teams also at minimum this week: NOH, OKC, ORL, POR, SAS
Week 7 - teams also at minimum this week: MIA, NYK, WAS
Week 10 - teams also at minimum this week: DET

Gasp! I almost sorta like this team. Not in a let's-talk-about-their-playoff-chances like, I mean still-crappy-but-is-on-the-rise-and-has-decent-fantasy-players like. I'll take Eric Gordon on my team for the right price. Camby is still a viable fantasy big man. As far as I know, Kaman can still play. Hey, Baron Davis ain't so bad. I'm less of an Al Thornton fan after last year, but on the right squad he could be okay. Go ahead and throw Rasual Butler in the late bench rounds of your draft, he won't be half bad. Blake Griffin will be another overdrafted rookie, which is just fine by this guy. Maybe even the guys they got from Minnesota, Smith and Telfair, can produce.

So there are things to work with. The Clips have a lot of 4 game weeks, so when the injuries happen - and oh yes, they will happen - you could score with a few Clipperinos. They have two spans of three 4-game weeks in a row, once in Jan. and once in late Feb./early March. The Clippers are well under the luxury tax line, have expirings, and if they were a much more savvy organization, they could produce a lot of fantasy opportunity in that late Feb./early March time. I'm not counting on it, but it's there.

Los Angeles Lakers

4-game weeks: 11
Minimum game weeks: 2
Playoff schedule: 3-4-3-2

Week 17 - teams also at minimum this week: none
Week 20 - teams also at minimum this week: ATL, HOU, PHX

NBA Champeens! I hear they got some guy Bryant and a Spaniard - Maximus I think. I was dead wrong last year, thinking that Gasol would shrink next to Bynum. I'd like to think that both would do well, but that shouldn't be the case. Could this be the year that their lack of point guardiness comes up to bite them? Maybe not, but the PG spot on the Lake Show is nigh worthless for fantasy. Man, I would have loved Ariza on this team. Artest? Good luck with that. He'll score and all, but I won't be surprised to see a few 4-11's from the field with 4 TO's, and that's really not going to help you too much.

Anyway, the two minimum game weeks for the Lakers come right after the All-Star break. Right before the break, they have 4-game weeks in weeks 10, 11, 13, 14, and 15. They should be rolling through their schedule then, so if you have one of their big fellas on your roster, ride them out until they play a game in Jerrah Jones's cavern. I'd keep an eye out for Farmar, Walton, and maybe even the Machine, just in case someone gets hurt (cough, Bynum) or something.

Phoenix

4-game weeks: 11
Minimum game weeks: 2
Playoff schedule: 3-4-3-2

Week 16 (All-Star week) - teams also at minimum this week: BOS, HOU, IND, MEM, NYK, OKC, TOR
Week 20 - teams also at minimum this week: ATL, HOU, LAL


Now here's a team you can wrap yourself up in fantasy-wise. A few guys in the top half of the draft (Amar'e, Nash, Richardson), guys who can fill out needs in your roster (Hill, Barbosa), and guys to watch out for in case something crazy happens (Frye, Dudley, Lopez). This team's a shell of its 2005 self, but still not one you'd want to play on the second game of back to back roadies.

Phoenix has a pretty nice schedule for H2H this year (after last year's 1 game week during Christmas - who let that happen?). Their minimum game weeks shouldn't do much damage, as one occurs during All-Star week. They have two runs on either side of the break of 4-gamers three weeks in a row, weeks 12-14 and weeks 17-19. And while their playoff schedule doesn't jump out at you, keep in mind that the first week of the playoffs (week 22), they have 3 games, but those three games are @Golden State, New York, and @ Minnesota. At the Suns pace, that can be better than a lot of 4-game weeks.

(Here's a good a time as any to say it. I have been basing playoff schedule according to how Yahoo! has always done it - 1st round week 22, semis week 23, finals combination of weeks 24 and 25. Well, now Yahoo! has gotten a little wise and you can have a li'l more flexibility in that playoff schedule. I know a lot of leagues won't change, but make sure you know when your playoffs are. Because I believe know is two-fifths or up to half of the battle.)

Sacramento

4-game weeks: 10
Minimum game weeks: 1
Playoff schedule: 4-3-3-2

Week 3 - teams also at minimum this week: IND, MIL, WAS

Screw it, I've almost had enough of these. The Kings roster is quite pre-AI Memphisian in that you've got a lot of guys who can do things for your fantasy squad, but in real life they suck. Kevin Martin screwed over a lot of people last year by getting hurt - don't do it again or someone will go out there and .. hurt you. Spencer Hawes will be taken in your draft, but no one will say, "Whoa, a little early for that!" nor "He was still on the board?" because he will be taken exactly where he should and may even win a week or two for you. Tyreke Evans is going to do some things on the court this year (who else will they play, Beno Udrih?) and I like him more than a lot of rookies that people will reach on. And if you don't do it on draft day, sometime soon keep an eye on Jason Thompson and Francisco Garcia. Garcia is the type of guy who can win you your league with all the stuff he can do if minutes are available, which they should be in Sac-town. And is there a food that Sacramento is famous for? Because if there is, Sean May will probably eat it. A lot of it.

The Kings have one minimum game week early, and other than that, 4 game weeks are spread out like New Jersey's so you never get a good run of those weeks. Like New Jersey, they will be gunning to get 250 out of 1,001 combinations of 14 ping pong balls. It's a shame that right now, the #1 pick is projected to be a point guard. Maybe that would work with Evans. The key to this season will be injuries. We know they will be teh suck, but if a couple of guys go down, someone could get a boatload of minutes and put up really good numbers, maybe Garcia, Thompson, or who knows.


Anyway, the point of this exercise was to look at the schedules of teams at some point in the draft season to look at what you are getting into, so you don't have crappy schedules jump up at you. I don't know about you, but Imma itchin' to draft!

Monday, September 7, 2009

09/10 Schedules - Northwest Division


Hey, Boozer can read! He can really read the fine print of his contracts, too. For now, Carlos is in the Northwest Division, with such classics as Denver, Portland, and team that used to play in Seattle and won a title in the 70's. Everyone's clearly chasing the Lakers and Spurs, but each one has their own pieces for fantasy purposes.


Denver

4-game weeks: 9
Minimum game weeks: 0
Playoff schedule: 4-3-3-2

Minimum game weeks:
None

Well looky here! Denver has this year's flat as a board schedule. What does that mean? Well, it means you should never have to take out someone because they play a 2 game week. With guys like Carmelo and Chauncey, you can set them in you lineup then not need to move them all year, like a rotisserie chicken. (RIP, Ron Popeil. What, he's alive? Why yes, with all of those products and infomercials, his legacy will live on for years. Oh, he's not actually dead yet? Carry on then.) You want guys on this squad who can churn out points, rebounds, assists, whatever they do well. As long as he keeps being healthy, Nene could thrive in a schedule like this. Of course, streaky guys (JR Smith) and one-cat wonders (Birdman) only get a few chances to really go over the top for you in 4-game weeks. The playoff schedule won't set off any fireworks, but there should be another fight for seeding like last season, so don't expect any of the Nuggets' top players to sit on the shelf come fantasy playoff time.

Minnesota

4-game weeks: 12
Minimum game weeks: 3
Playoff schedule: 4-3-3-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 4 - teams also at minimum this week: none
Week 15 - teams also at minimum this week: none
Week 19 - teams also at minimum this week: none

I can't really kill new GM David Kahn's work so far because even though Ricky Rubio no esta en la casa del Target, they just have to stay under the luxury tax line (and the salary cap line if necessary), collect pieces with moderate expiring contracts so they can be moved at some point, hope to hit on one or two 1st round draft picks by collecting multiple ones, and get a good coach to play at a good enough pace to keep fans excited. Heck, the Hawks did only one of those things 4+ years ago and they're in decent shape now. The Wolves can be bad to not-great the next couple of years; they owe the Clippers a #1 pick from the Jaric trade and it's protected top 10 the next 2 years, unprotected afterward - they might as well pounce for the 2011-2012 season to make that pick nigh worthless. Doesn't matter to me, I'm a 2 hr. plus Northwestern/Delta flight away from being effected. But at least I can see some sort of long range plan, and if I ever decide to don the blue n' green, I won't feel so bad.

Anyway, regarding the Wolves for fantasy - Al Jefferson, top 15 player, 20/10, yada yada yada. Kevin Love rebounds the ball, but only after drinking a special serum to control his fatness. New pickup Ramon Sessions should have plenty of people to dish it too, but of course he could use a team with a strong shot blocking presence behind him to take care of his lack of D (because then he would be Damon Sessions, and where's the flair in that?). I like Ryan Gomes and he would not be a bad late round/free agent pickup for the right week - they do have 12 4-gamers. I rate Johnny Flynn as a hold right now, well aware that someone in my league will like rookies more than I, scoop him up, and might get lucky with a decent PG. I'll take my chances. Enjoy the deep league you are in if you are grabbing Darius Songaila, and if something were to happen to Jefferson, he's not a bad pickup (see his percentages). And either my year is shot or I'm in a deep 20 team Yahoo league (where my year is still likely shot) if I'm picking up Brian Cardinal.

Now actually, the thing I just realized while typing this up 20 minutes ago: Minnesota has 3 2-game weeks (not counting AS and final season weeks), and in all 3 cases, they are the only team playing 2 games that week. Week 19 is a serious shot because 19 teams play 4 games that week. This is a major bummer if you picked Jefferson high as the anchor for your big-ball team. (No one else on Minny is worth the hassle of debating on sitting them in a 2 game week.) You need to have a reasonably high level big to back Jefferson up in those weeks, especially in week 19.
Here are the teams playing 4 games in week 19:

ATL, BOS, CHA, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MEM, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHX, SAC.

Here are the teams playing 4 games in week 4 (13 teams total) and 19:

ATL, CHA, CLE, DET, HOU, IND, OKC, ORL

Here are the teams playing 4 games in week 15 (13 teams total) and 19:

ATL, BOS, DEN, LAL, MEM, SAC

The one team to play 4 game weeks while Minnesota plays 2's is Atlanta. For this reason, Al Horford needs to be on your radar if you take Al Jefferson in round 1. Let's say you take Al with the 10th pick, a perfectly fine spot. Your next pick is 15th; future picks are 34th, 39th, 58th, 63rd, and 82nd. 15, 34, and 39 are too high. You can maybe go 58th, but 63rd might be okay. Right now, on ESPN.com, he's ranked at an average of 77 from the rankings of Brian McKitish, Erik Karabell, and Keith Lipscomb (McKitish has him 64th, not in top 85 of Karabell and Lipscomb - sorry he doesn't shoot enough 3's for you guys). GMTR has him ranked 51st in a 9 cat league, so some out there see a good year for him (while healthy).

I'd say the chances of Horford being available for you at 58 are about 40-60%; the number of centers you have to play will certainly be a factor. Also, where you take Al Jefferson in round 1/2 is a factor as well. You'll have a better opportunity at Horford if you pick Al 8th instead of in the 12/13 snake spot. Horford and Jefferson should both be PF/C's. If you take another center (and a scorer at that) between rounds 1 and 5, you can seriously lock in a big ball strategy. If you want to go in another non-big-ball direction with Jefferson, you'll need to take a hard look at Josh Smith and Joe Johnson, too. There, fantasy tips regarding Minnesota/Al Jefferson you can use in your H2H league. You're welcome.

Oklahoma City

4-game weeks: 11
Minimum game weeks: 2
Playoff schedule: 4-4-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 6 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC, NOH, ORL, POR, SAS
Week 16 (All-Star week) - teams also at minimum this week: BOS, HOU, IND, MEM, NYK, PHX, TOR

The Thunder have a player named Kevin Durant. He is a good player. You should draft him if you get the chance. Don't just listen to me, here are his stats, see for yourself.

Oklahoma City has a good little schedule - 4 game weeks are spread out throughout the year, their minimum game weeks won't kill you, and they shouldn't have to worry about resting players for the playoffs just yet. They are young enough that the players you want to see get some exposure are already playing. The Thunder were a average-to-deep league goldmine last year, as they had a lot of players who were worth drafting or picking up at some point last year: Durant, Westbrook, Green, Sefolosha, Weaver, Collison, Krstic, Wilcox. Add in James Harden (and possibly Etan Thomas) to the mix this year, and you could have plenty of guys on the squad who have the opportunity to get 25+ mpg and fantasy relevance. Shaun Livingston isn't on that list yet, but you never know.

Right now, OKC is the only team under the salary cap, which could be important come February as teams scramble to get under the luxury tax number. Their roster may be slightly different after the All Star break, and more likely someone else's roster will be altered by having traded with Oklahoma City. The Thunder won't take on any bad contracts, but they could get a free player or two this spring. Again, just something to watch out for with the Thunder later in the year, but Thunder blue should already be on the brain with their 4-4-4-2 playoff schedule.

Portland

4-game weeks: 12
Minimum game weeks: 3
Playoff schedule: 3-3-3-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 6 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC, NOH, OKC, ORL, SAS
Week 12 - teams also at minimum this week: NJN
Week 21 - teams also at minimum this week: DAL, ORL

Portland has 12 4-game weeks, four of them in the first five weeks of the season. They also have another stretch right before the All-Star break of four 4-gamers in five weeks. You'll get your money's worth Portland players this year. But if your trade deadline is in late Feb., that's when you may want to deal a little. They have a 2-gamer the week before the playoffs start, and it's a weak 3-3-3-2 after that.

As I mentioned with Orlando, Orlando's and Portland's schedules do not match up well at all. So if you get all down with B-Roy, Rashard Lewis ain't gonna work so well, especially with him playing just 72 games max.

Portland's schedule is frontloaded, so you're going to have to gamble that their playing rotation is settled some come draft time. Steve Blake isn't worth drafting in regular leagues, but Andre Miller is; Miller's value is likely going to be higher later in the year though, as a) Blake may not be there, and b) he will have wrested away a majority of the minutes. Oden may be worth something this year, as he'll have a year's amount of league play under his belt, and I assume that from May until now he hasn't fouled anyone. I wouldn't be afraid of drafting any Blazer or scooping one up early. Just don't look for Travis Outlaw on my playoff roster.

Utah

4-game weeks: 12
Minimum game weeks: 3
Playoff schedule: 4-3-3-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 1 - teams also at minimum this week: GSW, MIL
Week 13 - teams also at minimum this week: None

You draft Deron Williams real high, looking for assists right off the bat, and oof, you're stuck with a 2-game week 1. Suck it up, bee-yotch, you can have more than one point guard on your roster. Alright, if you're worried, you should be worried about week 13. Utah is the only team playing 2 games that week and 21 teams are playing 4 games. For safety sake, here are the teams that play 4 games in both week 1 and week 13:

LA Clippers, Portland Trail Blazers. That's it.

So if you have Deron Williams, I guess you could go for Andre Miller or Eric Gordon or Baron Davis. If you have Memo Okur, as your center, well, you won't get another one who shoots threes - maybe you could borrow Spencer Hawes for week 13. If you have Millsap or Boozer, they can sit on your bench for a week or two. If you have Ronnie Brewer, well then, your plan to grab steals every week may have taken a hit.

The Jazz have 6 guys on their squad who are useful on standard fantasy squads. Their schedule really shouldn't dictate too much on that, but the big part of their schedule is right after the All Star break, where 5 of the next 6 weeks are 4-gamers. Who knows, the Millsap/Boozer conundrum may have been solved by then due to trade or injury or swine flu.


Thus endeth the Northwest Division. Stay tuned for the last division, the Pacific. Some of those teams are pretty good, like the Lakers. They wear purple and gold.

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

09/10 Schedules - Southwest Division




Timmy, why do I feel that come late in the season, you'll be reading a newspaper on the sidelines, a la Willie Beamen in "Any Given Sunday"? (Go Albuquerque!) In the off-season, though, the Spurs and other divisions made moves to make themselves better; they added Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess. Dallas got the Matrix and locked down Kidd for three whole years - and got Drew Gooden! Houston swapped Artest for Ariza and decided to do away with the feeling they would get in February of "Man, we're going good, hope Yao doesn't get hurt." New Orleans got Okafor for Chandler which is OK I guess, but (channeling sportsguy33) anytime you get a chance to trade one of your starters for a 2nd round pick seven years from now, you do it. (But let's not congratulate ourselves too much, that pick is conditional.) And Memphis made deals to get other teams under the luxury tax - aren't they team players!

On to the schedules!

Dallas

4-game weeks: 10
Minimum game weeks: 1
Playoff schedule: 4-4-3-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 21 - teams also at minimum this week: ORL, POR

Dallas's schedule has a few good stretches - weeks 3-6 where they play 15 games, and weeks 17, 18, and 19 where they have 4 games each. You can't complain about their fantasy playoff setup either. It lays out pretty nicely if you take Dirk in round 1, and Jason Kidd with his triple-double potential can be pretty solid since they aren't stuck with a lot of 2 game weeks. It's a veteran team, so don't expect any sleepers to jump out and show themselves from the free agent pool. Marion had a better season in retrospect last year, and likely will be drafted in a better spot than round 1. Erick Dampier is online banking now and will be logging in every 15th of the month to see if his paycheck cleared. I hope Josh Howard can do a few more things this year, but I would not be surprised if he isn't moved come February since his nearly $12M salary next year is on a team option (good agent work - I hope he's got a trade kicker in there).

That's really all I've got to say about the Mavs for now, but I will note that while searching on whether Josh Howard has a trade kicker (he doesn't) - yes, I'm easily sidetracked by salary nerdiness - I did see that Erick Dampier's contract for next year is unguaranteed if he does not make the All Star team or does not play in 2,100 minutes in his 70 highest minute games. ED has never played 2,100 minutes while wearing Mavericks blue. So Dampier and Howard provide Dallas with $21M of very movable contracts come trade deadline time. So while the team now is at least decently constructed, the March/April product can be quite different. And don't underestimate the power of movable contracts - the Lakers turned Kwame Brown's into 2 trips to the Finals. Thanks ShamSports!

Houston

4-game weeks: 11
Minimum game weeks: 2
Playoff schedule: 4-4-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 16 (AS week) - teams also at minimum this week: BOS, IND, MEM, NYK, OKC, PHX, TOR, WAS
Week 20 - teams also at minimum this week: ATL, LAL, PHX

People of the planet Houston! One has to wonder where the pure scoring is going to come from without the Yao and the McGrady. Stretches from Game 5 of the Finals aside, Ariza is not a scorer in the true sense. But he can still steal the ball, I'll give him that. Brooks looks like he'll be in the scoring point guard mold; we'll see how that goes for him. I like Scola - he'll be my consolation prize when I don't get David Lee in round 2 or 3 and I want the greasier haired Spanish speaking version of him a few rounds later.

But back to the schedule, and it's very interesting. Everything comes in bunches, 4-gamers weeks 3 + 4 and weeks 8 + 9, then all 3-gamers the month of January. By then, we should know who the Rockets are. After the 1-game All-Star week, Houston is seriously golden. By then, we could see McGrady, McGrady's expiring contract traded for something, the return of Yao, the one who becomes the dominant threat on offense, a return to relevance of Shane Battier, Aussie David Anderson, or the emergence of some of those 2nd round picks they bought this summer. This Rocket squad is going to be one to watch in Feb. and March.

Memphis

4-game weeks: 11
Minimum game weeks: 2
Playoff schedule: 3-3-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 9 - teams also at minimum this week: CHA, NJN, NOH, PHI, TOR
Week 16 (AS week) - teams also at minimum this week: BOS, HOU, IND, NYK, OKC, PHX, TOR, WAS

The reason I'll try to watch Memphis games on League Pass this year? No, not because they have good young talent. No, not because their opponents will have great nights against them. It's the local commercials, featuring the finest establishments of the Mid-South, like Carl Hogan Automotive in Columbus, MS (I gotta have DeLois Price).

Memphis has a decent enough schedule - their minimum game weeks have a lot of company, so you shouldn't get run over during these weeks. Their playoff sked ain't much to look at, but take out All-Star week and Memphis has 4-gamers from week 14 through week 20. And say what you will about Memphis, they do have fantasy relevant players. I had OJ Mayo for most of last year, and while I don't love him, I understand the lure - he played in every game and had double digit points in 75 of them. His long distance range is good and should only get better. He also likes getting to the line and converting once there. Good for you. You don't hear a lot about it, but Mike Conley was quite the fantasy player from early March 09 on - top 50 and approaching top 25 for that stretch. You fantasy players like n'est pas? Well he did that once last April, why not a few more times this year, preferably in the same week? I wouldn't say Rudy Gay was a bust last year, but we all know he can do better. I have a feeling that this summer of 2010 could be the wrong year to be a restricted free agent, but good luck to you anyways. Gasol the younger was good some games, great others, blech in still others. I wouldn't complain too much if he was my 2nd Center in a must have 2 C's league (I'd like him even better as a third C / Util in such a league for a big ball team and to screw someone else over). And Z-Bo's there! I think he got to Memphis a few years too late because the strip club scene in Memphis isn't as strong as it was 6-10 years ago. Or so I hear. But if anyone can score and rebound, at nudie bars or in arenas near a large river, it's Zach Randolph.

So no, this squad doesn't need AI to make it a fun team to watch, fantasy-wise.

New Orleans

4-game weeks: 13
Minimum game weeks: 4
Playoff schedule: 3-4-3-1

Minimum game weeks:
Week 5 - teams also at minimum this week: CHI
Week 6 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC, OKC, ORL, POR, SAS
Week 9 - teams also at minimum this week: CHA, MEM, NJN, PHI, TOR
Week 25 (last week of season, combined with week before) - teams also at minimum this week: CLE

Last year's Hornets schedule was strongly backloaded, with a lot of 4-gamers around the clubhouse turn. This year? What a hot mess. On the plus side, they have the most 4 game weeks of any team in the league, 13, same as New York. They have nice stretches of those games early on: weeks 2-4 and weeks 11-15. But they have 2-gamers back to back in weeks 5 and 6. The week 5 one is crippling, as only 1 other team (Chicago) has the same sitch, and 14 teams have 4 game weeks at that time. Week 6 is not so treacherous. The playoffs are treacherous - NO plays only 4 games in your finals week, while everyone else plays 5 or 6.

What does this mean for your fantasy team? Well, I like it for Chris Paul - he's almost schedule proof, as his counting stat strengths, assists and steals, can be hard to get, and if he gives you 24 assists and 5 steals in a 2-game week, that's almost as good if not better than your replacement 4-gamer. 2-game weeks hurt the guys like David West who excel in points and rebounds and percentages. The Hornets aren't deep fantasy-wise for your standard 10-13 round leagues- Paul, West, Okafor; maybe Posey and Wright. You can get by with West or Okafor or Wright on your bench for a couple of weeks. Let's see about supporting Paul, looking at who plays max games in weeks 5 and 6: Dallas, Milwaukee, New York, and Toronto.

Let's eliminate Milwaukee - they have no one you'd take at 24 or 25 (12 team league, you have pick #1 and take Paul) or 48/49 for that matter. Dallas - you aren't getting Dirk, but Terry, Marion, and Kidd could certainly help in the next few rounds. New York - you'd have to take a good look at David Lee, then maybe Al Harrington. Toronto - you're not getting Bosh, but I'd put Calderon on my squad any day of the week (preferably Sunday night when lineups lock for the week ahead).

Now you want to take care of your playoff finals, since you will be in the finals, right? Who plays 6 games in the last 2 weeks?

Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Golden State, Houston, Memphis, Milwaukee, New York, Oklahoma City, Philadelphia, San Antonio, Toronto, Washington.

As you can see, you don't need to go out of your way to draft Paul backup, and you shouldn't 5 months away from the playoffs. Just keep it in mind as the All-Star Game approaches.

San Antonio

4-game weeks: 11
Minimum game weeks: 2
Playoff schedule: 4-4-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 2 - teams also at minimum this week: none
Week 6 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC, NOH, OKC, ORL, POR

San Antone starts the year game-wise off slow. Week 2, they have the only 2 game week, and half the league plays 4. San Antonio is loaded at the end, finishing the year with max games from weeks 20 through 25: 4-4-4-4-4-2. If you remember last year, and if you had Duncan on your squad, you do, Coach Pop rested Duncan and/or Parker and/or Ginobli in instances when they had back to back games late in the year. Gee, ya think he'll still do that now that they all are a year older? Maybe. That's why I'm leery of having Duncan on my squad as a high pick this year. 2nd or 3rd round? No, I need a guy I can count on or get value back in a trade come February. Maybe 4th or 5th. Parker? I'll still take him, but at an appropriate time and if I have a team punting 3's and such. Ginobli? Meh.

Does that mean Spurs aren't worth having? Nosiree. Late in the year, I'm looking at guys who will get an uptick late in the year with increased PT, mainly for standard or deep leagues. Antonio McDyess, George Hill, and Roger Mason could all look better in the 2nd half than on draft day. And no, I haven't forgotten about Richard Jefferson. He won't put up numbers like last year, but I can't severely downgrade him, just because I can't see him being rested in the latter months. The Spurs, like the Rockets, need to be watched in the closing weeks.

Thus endth the Southwest Division. Coming next, the ever exciting Northwest Division - they have a team in Utah!

And in honor of the Four Fingers of Fantasy Guide coming out today on Give Me The Rock, here's a cheerleader photo. Dance!