Tales of 9 Cats - A Fantasy Basketball Blog

The new schedule's here! The new schedule's here!

2010-08-10T20:35:00.000-07:00

I love new NBA schedule day in early August. It's the first time you can do some ruminating and rumbling over fantasy strategery. And of course I love doing brute force counting of who plays how much each week. I haven't done too much analysis yet, but a few things stand out.

1. Three teams have a 5 game week, and they all come in the first half of the season - Atlanta in week 5 (Happy Thanksgiving!), Dallas in week 10 (Merry New Year!), and Portland in week 2 (Happy, uh, Guy Fawkes Day, for all you "Daria" fans).

2. Toronto has a 1 game week during Christmas (week 9), just like Phoenix 2 years ago. Hmm, this may be a week you think about benching Bosh and Turkoglu. What who in the hey now? Oh.

3. Miami has the only 4 game week in week 1. Go ahead, draft LeBron in round 1, then Bosh in round 2, I'll let it pass.

4. No team has 3 games during the short pre-All-Star week, like Orlando did last year. So you don't have to start Jameer Nelson and let his 10-29 shooting kill you.

Anyway, here is a quick and dirty schedule grid which I did, so you won't have to.

2nd Opinion - another doctor's visit

2010-08-05T18:36:00.000-07:00

I’m setting about on trying to interact with in the fantasy hoops game. Next up (because Kamla won’t reply to my emails) is Jason Hahn, proprietor of the fantasy hoops blog “fBasketballBlog” and the Fantasy Doctor over at Dime magazine. Geez, does everyone have to be a doctor when they spit out fantasy advice? Why not any other profession? From now on, I going to be the Fantasy Guy from Accounts Receivable. Straight up numba crunchin’ like my G, Herbert Kornfeld. (Mourn ya til I join ya, H-Dog.)

Anyway, here is some Q&A with Jason, who is already doing some quality offseason work and will be just as good in-season, what with the red/yellow/green notes n’ stuff (just like a traffic light!).

To9C: How did you get into this fantasy basketball stuff? Does your mom know about this?

JH: First off, I just want to quickly say that I'm humbled to be in the interviewed company of such fantasy basketball greats as Steve "Dr. A" Alexander and Ken Slight. You've become something of a Charlie Rose or Larry King in the fantasy basketball world, and I'm honored to be interviewed here. To your question, my love for fantasy basketball was sparked by my love for basketball in general. I participated in my first fantasy league in the late '90s on NBA.com with some friends and haven't looked back since. I just love the game of fantasy basketball -- the attention it demands, the chance to manage your very own team, the opportunities to get the best of your friends and the knowledge of lesser-known players it brings. My love for fantasy basketball fuels my love for the NBA. It's an obsession of mine that I'm not ashamed of. Some are addicted to alcohol, others to porn -- I'm addicted to fantasy basketball. I only started blogging about fantasy ball last summer, when I had the opportunity to take a class in my graduate journalism program about how to launch and maintain a professional blog. When we were given our choice of topics, fantasy basketball was the obvious way to go. Needless to say, writing about fantasy basketball, no matter how crudely, is a dream that merges two intense loves of mine. And yes, my mom knows about this, though she doesn't quite understand it.

To9C: How did the gig with Dime Magazine come about? Are you really a doctor?

JH: I have to give thanks to my younger brother and one of our friends, who both suggested last summer that I try to write for Dime Magazine. I scoffed at the idea and thought it was a pipe dream, but a couple weeks later those brief conversations popped up in my head again and I figured that it couldn't hurt to try. So I e-mailed the crew at Dime Magazine, telling them that I'm a huge fan of basketball -- especially fantasy basketball -- and sent a link to my young fantasy basketball blog, along with my resume. After nearly a month of silence, an editor at Dime finally replied and said they were actually looking for someone to take over the duties of the Fantasy Doctor at DimeMag.com, and that they dug my blog. I wrote my first post as the Fantasy Doctor the very next day. In the words of Forrest Gump, that's all I have to say about that. It was really incredible timing, and I'm hugely grateful for that. Though I wish I could claim the title and the salary, no, I am not a doctor.

To9C: What is going to be different/better in 10-11 than 09-10?

JH: I hate to be obvious but the values of some big fantasy names are going to be impacted by off-season moves. LeBron James isn't a consensus No. 1 pick, which is what he was last fall. Dwyane Wade's fantasy appeal is a bit of a mystery. Chris Bosh is no longer a late first-round or early second-round pick. Amar'e Stoudemire's value is no longer unpredictable just because of his knee -- the absence of Steve Nash (who is also set to take a step down out of first-round value thanks to age, STAT's departure and Hedo Turkoglu's arrival) in his life could also be a downer for his value. There are many that are bumping down an older Kobe Bryant to the latter half of the first round this year. Stephen Curry as a first-rounder is still a ridiculous idea to some, though it's happening. Yao Ming and Blake Griffin are set to return to the court, which could be painfully interesting. And let's not forget about the great Gilbert Arenas making a comeback to a drastically different Wizards squad. I think it's going to take a lot of fantasy owners some time to digest all that's happened on the NBA landscape this summer. Overall, I think this makes 2010-11 more unpredictable and, therefore, more fun than last season. So much has changed for so many teams that surprising shifts in fantasy values are bound to happen, and it will be tons of fun to try to keep up.

To9C: What was your biggest whiff last year? Mine was Marvin Williams - you'd think I'd know better being in Atlanta.

JH: This one's easy: being ecstatic about having Al Jefferson fall to me at No. 14 overall in a 16-man league. I genuinely thought that Jefferson would beast it last season. Yes, I expected him to take some time to work himself back into peak form, but I was convinced that he was going to finish the season as a top-15 fantasy asset. I was way off on that one, though I think his playing time was at least partly to blame. Looking back, it was incredibly hasty of me to think Jefferson could return and put up that kind of value immediately -- kind of like expecting Bristol and Levi to actually work the second time around. Surprisingly enough, I still managed to win that league, though I definitely deserved to be shamefully destroyed.

To9C: Following your mock w/WS Help - what do you have to say to the doubters of taking S. Curry in rd 1? (note: I fully support Curry in top 12)

JH: First off, I understand the doubting. He's a relatively unknown name who only really found his groove after the first two months of the 2009-10 season. Nevertheless, he finished the season with sick overall stats -- especially for a rookie. The stats that set him apart from the likes of Tyreke Evans were his threes (2.1 per game) and steals (1.9 per game). He also shot the ball well from the field (46.2 percent) and the free-throw line (88.5 percent). Yes, he turned the ball over 3.1 times per contest, but that does little to weigh down his overall value, let alone his sky-high potential. The only slight risk to his value this season is the coaching situation in Oakland -- if Nellie goes, the offense might not be as open as it was last year, and if Nellie stays, madness might ensue. But both the prospect of Nellie leaving and Curry getting relegated to the bench more often this season are unlikely. By averages in a nine-category league, Curry finished last season with top-12 value, which means even if he remains stagnant, the sophomore would still be worth a first-round pick. That's very comforting. The kid is young, plays beautiful basketball in a system that lends itself to fantasy-friendly play and is on a team that has fewer offensive weapons than it did last season. I really don't think you need much more convincing, though if you do, head on over to Dr. A's most recent post at RotoWorld, and look at Curry's No. 11 overall player ranking last year (by averages with nine categories) at Basketball Monster.

To9C: Do you have someone in mind that probably won't be drafted but will be a factor or at least discussed this season?

JH: Great question. Deep sleepers are always tough to predict, but I'll go out on a very thin limb and say David Andersen, the second-year, 30-year-old big man who showed some flashes of goodness last year in Houston. Now that he's on a depleted Raptors team that doesn't have many viable bigs, Andersen, who can hit the three, could be a hot waiver-wire throughout this season. I'll also throw in Patrick Patterson, Tiago Splitter, Jannero Pargo, Dorrell Wright and Lance Stephenson into the mix. Oh, and let's hope no one forgot about Reggie Williams already.

To9C: What's the craziest question you got for the fantasy doctor?

JH: Thankfully our readers are pretty savvy, and it's rare that I get a question that is way off base. But one comment on my recent outlook for James, Wade and Bosh in Miami stands out: "you left out the fact that all will suffer major cases of Vaginitis and will probably go thru about 3-6 tubes of Vagisil each a night…oh..they don’t keep those stats???well..they probably will now." My response? "That’s beyond the realm of my expertise."

Thanks Jason. Continue reading his work on fBasketballBlog and at Dime Magazine. Now I’m off crunch more numbers. These TPS reports won’t update themselves, you know.

Quick visit to my doctor (no copay!)

2010-07-21T20:21:00.000-07:00

You've done it. You know you have. You're following along a game by the box score on Yahoo/ESPN/nba.com or watching your team on stat tracker. You have Greg Oden and you wonder why he has just 2 points in the 3rd quarter and has only played 5 minutes. What the hey?!? Did he injure a knee/ankle/penis? You gotta get up to the minute news so you know whether or not to pick up Joel Pryzbilla. The one place a serious fantasy guy goes, that's Rotoworld. The main man, the head honcho, the big cheese for NBA (and PGA) is Steven "Dr. A" Alexander. He writes plenty of articles, too, and he is kind enough to put a way to contact him at the bottom (I'm assuming he has that hotmail account spam filter set on "high"). So anyone, even a shmoe like me, can ask him fantasy-type questions. I figured I'd ask some things that were creepin' and crawlin' in my head, not in order of importance, but just things I wanted to know. And here we go...

To9C: Everyone by now knows of Miami Thrice, the Superfriends, whatever. Who else on the Heat provides fantasy value? (Keep in mind, I'm a guy who has drafted Mike Miller in 2 of the last 3 years and dropped him by Pearl Harbor Day each time, and I have been picking up Udonis Haslem off and on for each of the last 5 years to get boards and FG%.)

A: I am not sure why, but I really think Miller is going to hit a ton of threes this year. What made him so intriguing in the past was the fact that he was also a good rebounder and dimes guy...I suspect those days are over, and he's as injury prone as I am, and I'm 42 with bad knees. But I get the sense he's going to stand outside the arc and bomb away all year...could hit three per game, but not sure he'll enough other things to give him strong value.

To9C: Who breaks through into the first round this year?

A: Who do we draft later that finishes with first-round value? or who is taken in the first round for the first time this year?

Stephen Curry is now a first-round pick, for the first time. Josh Smith probably won't go in the first round, but could easily finish with first-round value. And I say it every year, but man, the Anthony Randolph hype-machine is in full gear and he's going to be a beast if he A. stays healthy and B. gets along with D'Antoni.

To9C: Who slips into second round territory?

A: Chris Bosh is no longer a first-round candidate in Miami, and I'm not even sure Dwyane Wade still is with LeBron around. If he's there when I pick 11th tomorrow night I'm probably taking Wade, but it's a bit of a crapshoot these days. And while he won't have second-round value, Ray Felton is going to have a nice year for the Knicks. Just look at what a less talented Chris Duhon did when handed the reins a couple years ago. He was a mini-Nash. J.J. Hickson looks like possibly the breakout candidate of the year in Cleveland, and Andrea Bargnani is going to go off without Bosh around.

To9C: Who has a Shawn Marion-esque drop off this year? I say Baron Davis and Troy Murphy (which pains me to say, because I love bigs who shoot threes).

A: Mehmet Okur is dead to me. Off the bench with Al Jefferson in town, Millsap breakout coming...Ugh. Then again, Okur wasn't all that great last year, but still, he's done. Others would include: Any player on the Bucks, except for Andrew Bogut. That team is way too deep for fantasy use, and even Bogut could take a bit of a fall this year. Wouldn't be surprised if Blake Griffin ruins Chris Kaman, Devin Harris is going to be injured again this season and won't need to score as much, Caron Butler could see a smaller role with Roddy Beaubois coming on, you have to think Vince Carter's run is coming to an end, while Rashard Lewis wasn't exactly killing it last year, either. Elton Brand - I just don't see him working at center. Tough to play hoops when you're running in quicksand. That said, I really don't see anyone primed to take a complete fall like Marion did, but it will probably happen.

To9C: Can you win your league if you draft Danny Granger in the first round? I contend if you take Granger, you're going to need a lot of help, because two of his strengths (3's and FT%) are things you can get later. Personally, I won't take him higher than 7th - any higher and you're waiting too long before your #2 pick to get great help. If he should drop to 10 or 11, you have to take him, and you are in great shape with your #2, especially if he still has SG/SF/PF eligibility like he did in Yahoo last year.

A: I really hated the way Granger played last year. He stood out there and chucked threes with no conscience and it wasn't pretty to watch. I also am not a fan, at all, of his coach, and his knees, as well as the fact he plays for an awful team, scares the heck outta me. Add in the fact they drafted Granger Jr. in Paul George, and I'm not sure I would take him at No. 7. I have to come up with a draft list in the next 12 hours and I have a feeling Granger's going to be down there between 9-12. And given the fact I'm drafting 11th in two drafts tomorrow night, maybe I have the pleasure of having him on two teams. We'll see. Ideally, I'd like to see Amare there, but I don't think that's gonna happen. Can you win taking Granger in the first round? Of course. But you need to make sure your picks in Round 2-6 are flawless.

To9C: I noticed that July 20th wais the 2 year anniversary of your feature in the AJC "Why I Love My Job". I assume you still love your job, but what has changed in those 2 years?

A: Ha, had no idea. Good to know. I love that piece actually, b/c the writer did a good job of describing what I do on a daily basis. What has changed since then? EVERYTHING. With the rise of Twitter, my job has become much more complex. Eight years ago, in the summer, we'd probably post 10-15 blurbs a day. The only news that came out was from the AP and we had to wait until the following morning to dig through the local papers on line to find news. And then it was probably a little hit-or-miss. Now? A deal goes down or a guy signs, and it's on Twitter immediately, some times even tweeted by the owner (Jazz) or GM (Rockets) of the team as it happens. But that's also one of the cool things about Rotoworld. Sure, you could follow 300 hoops people on Twitter like we do, but good luck trying to keep up with it and sort it out. We don't miss a tweet, and therefore condense essentially everything that happens on Twitter, newspapers, blogs and TV into individual news blurbs on Rotoworld.

I've also been thinking lately about how similar our news blurbs are to the Twitter idea. We don't have a character limit, but we essentially provide some quick facts and analysis for fantasy owners, and they can get in and out without spending five minutes reading a whole column or digging for news, and then move on. So while I miss being able to golf and totally "chill" in the summer, the quality and speed of news we're bringing to our readers has never been better, which is really all that matters to me.

I may pop in a few questions in as the year goes by, and definitely follow along on Rotoworld. Thanks again, good doctor! I'll show myself out.

A few quick questions for the Monster

2010-07-20T20:43:00.000-07:00

So I'm following my Twitter the other night, as kids are wont to do these when they aren't texting on their eye-phones and listening to the rap and roll music. And what do I see but an update from Basketball Monster saying that summer league rankings were up. It's like manna from heaven or Darko being traded for Brian Cardinal for a fantasy hoops fan! Now I know that Eric Bledsoe was ranked 296th out of everyone who played in summer leagues, with a meaty 6.2 TO/G. Luke Harangody - ranked 11th. Step aside, Brian Scalabrine. Jeremy Lin, 137th - there's my 10th round insurance for if my 1st round pick of Steph Curry goes down.*

* May not draft Jeremy Lin in round 10.

Okay, so you can't really use summer league numbers. But now we have numbers! That means it's time! So I figured I'd get in touch with the creator and runner of Basketball Monster and Bucks aficionad, Ken Slight (Slightly Older Money) and ask him a few questions before things cool down and the nitty gritty starts.

Tales of 9 Cats: First of all, to get it out of the way, what do you see Heat players doing fantasy-wise this season?

Basketball Monster:It's likely that each player will get less field goal attempts (meaning less fta, 3a, & pts too) so that'll hurt all of them. Also, since Wade and James are used to running their teams, I imagine both assist totals will be lower too (one of the two at least). The only area where they may improve is fg%. It seems James wasn't considering fantasy owners when making his decision.

To9c:Are you excited for Milwaukee this year? I see a playoff team with a chance at round 2 if they get everyone healthy and working together. In fantasy, they have a lot of players who are going to put up quality numbers - Jennings, Bogut, Maggette, Salmons, Ilyasova, Gooden, Delfino. I say they could be one of the most useful team in fantasy for standard to deep leagues - thoughts?

BM:I feel pretty good about the team this year. As you mention, it's all a matter of health. Regardless, they'll be a good source of cheap tickets for me at least :)

To9C:Anything new this year that you'd like to tease right now?

BM:I hope to have many improvements to the site so I'll get back on this one.

I'll have some more questions later in the year, and hopefully more questions for other fantasy hoop-like peoples.

Vindication!

2009-12-21T06:55:00.000-08:00

(Spoken in Adam Sandler Cajun Man voice)
(Good gravy, those sketches are almost 20 years old - way to stay current with the pop culture and whatnot.)

As soon as Yahoo! updates their standings and scoring from last week, I will be back in first place in the Give Me The Rock Mock Draft league after an 8-1 dismantling. Granted, in an non-moves league, injuries can completely derail you. But now I've got all 13 guys playing with Paul and Murhpy and Love back from owies (and even Anthony Randolph being allowed to skip violin practice and play with the big boys). It's really beautiful to behold. Now if I could get back on track in my other leagues ... W's are W's, and I'll take them anywhere I can get them.

Basketball Monster - a look at the monster within

2009-11-12T10:06:00.000-08:00

If you're like me, and you've been playing fantasy hoops for the last few years, you've needed some way to rank players pre- and post-draft, plus you've probably needed to project how players will perform over the course of a week or stretch of weeks. ESPN, Yahoo, CBS Sportsline, etc. all have their own ranking systems that can work, but what about for your specific league - say you use no turnovers and use offensive rebounding and 3 point percentages? You are going to be up some sort of creek if you try to use Yahoo's O-Rank. And how do you factor in Jose Calderon's 4 game week vs. Chris Paul's 2 game week? The answer is simple - you pony up and go to Basketball Monster.

I decided to unleash my crack investigative team (me and my gmail account) to find out about the man behind the data at Basketball Monster. That man is Ken Slight, an intrepid software engineer / website developer who resides in Milwaukee, making Brandon Jennings the second biggest fantasy star in the Milwaukee area (maybe third behind Boo-Boo Kitty). Recently, I had an email exchange with the guy who probably helped you decide a couple of years ago, "Hmm, Udonis Haslem gives me rebounds and FG%, Miami plays 4 games this week, dammit, I'm picking him up off waivers!" Here is said commentary, and I hope it gives some insight into my favorite fantasy basketball website to hit for data.

Tales of 9 Cats: How did the site get started?

Basketball Monster: The site started in 2002 as a way of displaying a spreadsheet of rankings on a website. At the time, I was a software developer working on backend database code, and I wanted to try something a little more exciting so this was my introduction to website programming.

To9C: Is the Monster a solo project, or do you have a team to help you?

BM: Yes, the site is a solo project.

To9C: How has BM improved since the beginning (basketball and/or baseball)?

BM: The site began as a read-only website, where rankings were displayed for both 8-cat and 9-cat leagues. It became a real website when it changed from a read-only website to a site you could enter your settings and get customized results. Over the past few years, a few tools have been added and the projection process has improved. This season, the website has been rewritten and major (I think at least) improvements will occur over the next few months. For baseball, a new website was created last season, and projections were introduced. For next season, many of the improvements planned for basketball, will be included in the baseball site.

To9C: What is new this year?

BM: Adding the new website allows for many new changes this season. For now, it contains many of the tools from the old website, but over the next couple of months, new features will be added. The goal of the changes is to involve the users more and turn it into an interactive website rather than an output-only website. Some ideas include contests for predicting player performance and predicting when injured players will return. Hopefully this will provide some entertainment and some useful information too.

To9C: How much input to you get from reader/users?

BM: Readers and users supply most of their comments during the preseason and the beginning of the season. Much of the site is a result of user input, and their thoughts are always welcome. The users of the site tend to be pretty intelligent so they’re easy to deal with.

To9C: Are you active in fantasy leagues? If so, are you any good?

BM: I try to play one league in Yahoo!, CBS, and ESPN so I can keep track of player positions. If invited, I’ll usually play in other leagues too. For most leagues, I think I compete pretty well, and if injuries or one-sided trades don’t throw the league off, I have a decent shot.

To9C: Fantasy basketball is my personal favorite, but it's at best third behind the juggernaut football and the granddaddy baseball. Do you see fantasy hoops ever moving up, or is there another sport ready to overtake basketball, like hockey, NASCAR, or golf?

BM: I’m guessing basketball remains third for a while. I think Fantasy Football is popular because it’s so easy to play and requires little commitment. Baseball attracts statistics-type people so it’s a good fit for fantasy. I feel the majority of basketball fans have little interest in Fantasy Basketball and are more a fan of watching the sport.

To9C: Your analysis in hoops covers a variety of stats besides the basic 8 or 9. Are there any new stats on the horizon, such as +/- which has shown up in box scores within the last couple of years?

BM: There are no new stats planned, but users suggest some news ones which are usually based off of existing stats.

To9C: Are your rankings and projections purely statistics/numbers driven? That is, can and do non-statistical factors come into play? For instance, some hoops leagues require that 2 centers start; position scarcity becomes a factor. Is that something a user has to take into account separate from your site? (Of course, one could rank just the centers using your position filter.)

BM: The rankings are based on statistics only, and the projections are based on statistics and subjective input. The projected “minutes per game” is the most subjective number, and the hardest to predict. Other stats are changed based on the player’s projected role on their team. Since everyone has their own opinion of how players will perform, I want to make it as easy as possible for users to customize the players. Then by rating the actual results against the user’s predicted results, I can generate a list of users with a proven track record. Other users can then view those opinions and hopefully use that for their own benefit. This allows users to get opinions other than mine which will likely produce better results. As far as position rankings, for now, there are no adjustments based on positions, but I plan on adding an active positions setting and then allowing users to show rankings based on position scarcity.

To9C: I know people who use your site just for trade analysis alone. Frankly, that's what sets your site apart from any other analysis site - we'd all be stuck using Yahoo's O-Rank if you didn't have it. Was there a "Doc Brown hitting his head on the sink and envisioning the flux capacitor" moment in creating the trade analyzer?

BM: I can’t recall if the trade analyzer came about because of a user suggestion or as a logical extension of the team analyzer. It was most likely from a user because I tend not to make trades anyway.

To9C: Are you a fan of a particular NBA team? Vishnu help you if you're a Bucks fan. (Note: Ken lives in the Milwaukee area.)

BM: Yes, I’m a Bucks fan. I am originally from Chicago so I grew up rooting for the Bulls, but living in Wisconsin for a while, I have switched to a mostly Bucks fan. It’s not too bad because it’s very easy to get cheap tickets to see some good teams.

To9C: I saw that Football Monster will be starting in 2010: a) how was that domain name still available? b) if you got 1 dollar for every time someone said to you, "Dude, you should totally do this for fantasy football", what would you be able to buy? c) because of the sheer magnitude of fantasy football players, will this be your main driver next year?

BM: a) When I purchased basketballmonster.com, I also purchased baseball and football monster. I’m pretty sure hockey was gone at the time, or I would have grabbed that too. b) I guess a few users have suggested football, but not too many actually. c) I don’t expect to make much money off the football site so it won’t be my main driver. I don’t see the football site working the same as the basketball or baseball since stats aren’t quite as useful at predicating results. I’ll try to create something different than other sites and try to make it entertaining for the users.

To9C: Do you have any examples of a player going through your numbers who surprised you, that made you think, "Huh, I thought Player X sucked, but here he is ranked 60th"?

BM: I can’t think of a major surprise, but I am a little surprised now at how useful Gallinari appears to be. (My note: this year’s BM projections came out around the middle of the GMTR Mock Draft, late October. Danilo Gallinari projected out astonishingly high, and his green numbers on BM kept taunting me to draft him. He eventually got taken in the 12th round and is now seriously outperforming that draft spot - current BM ranking in standard 9 cat league - 29).

To9C: What does the future hold for BM? Snappier colors? Video? A spot for the kids? More straightforward, simple to use analysis?

BM: The goal of the site it to make managing fantasy basketball teams successful, simple, and fun. To make teams more successful, the site needs to produce consistently great results. This means better projections and better tools to manipulate those projections. Making the site simpler means consolidating many of the tools into a more convenient format and providing interaction between the website and 3^rd party fantasy providers (ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS). Ideally, the website would tell users who to draft, who to pickup, and who to place in their lineup. If a person who cares nothing about basketball (my wife for example) could follow the advice of the website, and win their league, that would mean the website was a success. For me, there’s no end to what can be added to the website.

***********************************************************

Ken, thanks for taking the time for a li'l ol' blogger/player. Keep up the great work!

What the hey, Dallas?

2009-11-04T12:56:00.000-08:00

While this is not a fantasy problem per se, it does make me go, hmmm. Right now, Erick Dampier is ranked #54 overall on Basketball Monster - not just among centers, overall. If you need that third center, there are plenty of worse players you could pick up. He's blocking and rebounding right now, everything you want in a non-Channing Frye center.

He's also playing 30 minutes a game. That's going to be kind of a problem. Sure, Dallas can win with him on the floor that long. But you've got a salary cap issue if he keeps it up. Here's what I got from www.shamsports.com (and he got it from somewhere, you'll have to ask him where, but add 5 hours because he's British):

Re: Erick Dampier's Contract

Signed and traded to Dallas with a 7 year, $73 million contract in August 2004. Contract contains performance bonuses currently listed as "likely." Last season is fully unguaranteed, which becomes full guaranteed if 1) Dampier is selected to play in any three NBA All-Star Games between the 2004-2005 and 2009-2010 seasons, or 2) Dampier plays at least 2,100 minutes in the 70 regular season games in the 2009-2010 season in which he plays his most minutes (and if he plays in less than 70 regular season games in the 2009-2010 season, then he must play at least 2,100 minutes for the entire regular season).

2100 divided by 70 is 30. Math. Dampier is not Chinese so he didn't make 3 All-Star Games. But he could play in 70 games. Dallas is messing with fire right now but letting him on the court more than 30 minutes a night. It would help if they could play some of the smaller teams in the league right now, like Atlanta or Houston or Minnesota, and not the LA teams. They need Drew Gooden healthy for a bunch of games this year. They need to see if Kris Humphries can do anything big. Maybe they can go small and get Dirk his Center eligibility back. There has to be a center floating around out there to give 8 minutes a night, or a Donaghy-like ref who needs the over to come in and will call cheap big man fouls.

Dampier is scheduled to make just over $13 million in 2009-2010. With Dallas over the luxury tax line, the Magic's move of matching Gortat could cost Dallas $26 million. Sure, Cuban has money, but he didn't become rich by effectively paying guys like Dampier $26 million. (I think he invented the electric car or something.) An unguaranteed contract of $13 million is going to be a huge chip this February or right before the draft. I can't see Dallas screwing this up when it's been such a bad contract already. Mr. Cuban, if you want, you can pay me three-tenths of one percent of what you would pay out for Mr. Dampier next season - I'll do anything you want after I tell you to play Dampier less, even help run a Dairy Queen.

All that being said, Dampier is still going to be fantasy poison. He's never been able to consistently bring in good center numbers, and should never be more than a one week / 4 game pickup. I'd watch the 3-4 weeks before the trade deadline for his PT to decline, just to make sure he has 12 games of low minutes so that his guarantee clause doesn't kick in. If you want that extra center, go for him now if you must.

GMTR Mock League Week 2

2009-11-04T12:44:00.001-08:00

After last week's 4-4-1 tie, I now get to play a true small ball team, pwangsta. He got Deron Williams and Nash early, so assists is gone. I'd like to think steals are still in play, as he has Garcia and Jamison taking up spots with injuries. Of course, I have Kevin Love in the same predicament, so that could swing rebounds his way. As of right now, I'm down 6-3, and a Troy Murphy injury does not help. Ellis, Morrow, and Anthony Randolph have yet to play a game for the Warriors this week, so I got them ready to attack; Bargnani is in the same way with him.

I think that once Love comes back and I have all 13 playing, I will be in good shape against any team; weekly matchups could tip the scales with games played, which is all I can ask for.

Here are the standings, with me in a tie for 5th.

1.	Shawn Kemp's Kidz	7-2-0
2.	Kardashian Babymaker	6-3-0
3.	Nels' Mockery	5-4-0
4.	Ncizzle	5-4-0
5.	Tales of 9 Cats	4-4-1
6.	In Your Face Odyssey	4-4-1
7.	why so serious?	4-4-1
8.	The Mock-Skeeters	4-4-1
9.	pwangsta	4-5-0
10.	Velvet Hoop	4-5-0
11.	Project Spurs	3-6-0
12.	Killer Instincts	2-7-0

POT W! (Number 1)

2009-11-02T12:57:00.000-08:00

Wow, what a first week! It had everything, dribbling, shooting, minor injuries - even the great game by Larry Hughes to make the lesser folk think they should pick him up (don't worry, the 2-11's and 4 turnovers should be coming up any minute now).

There were some good weeks, no doubt. Melo had a serious week, averaging 37.7 and 7 boards and sick percentages for the week. I will say though, if you drafted Carmelo, you wanted points with a smattering of boards. That's what you got. So while his week was great (Basketball Monster's #1 player for the week), his delta wasn't greatly above and beyond what you wanted from his draft spot (Yahoo ADP 27.5).

No, I'm going to go with the guy who seriously outperformed his draft position, the guy I got with pick #144 in the Give Me The Rock mock draft, the Fyre Guy, Channing Frye. He got nearly 20 points per for the week, and a good-for-him/poor-for-a-center 5.7 boards per game. But brother, it's the freakin' 13 threes he made this past week. Dude, when you get that from your center and add it to hopefully some of the guards you drafted (read: not Andre Miller), that wins categories for you and in turn weeks. Hey, what do you know, I won 3's by 12 this week, what a coinky-dunk.

I liked Danilo Gallinari, Andy Blatche, Louis Williams, and Marc Gasol this week as well. D12 and Kobe put up numbers befitting their draft. Rondo will be a sweet play for everyone lucky enough to get him. This week, POTW is going to be harder fought for, as 15 teams play 4 games this week. The Spurs only play 2; thankfully, there is no one on Los Spurs worth building your team around; go right ahead and bench Tim Duncan for one of the several times you will do so this year.

Week 1 on tap

2009-10-27T09:20:00.001-07:00

Well, week 1 is about to start. Squint and you can see my first matchup against team "In Your Face Odyssey". Basketball Monster has me losing 4-5, and the key is the Kevin Love injury, making me outgamed 38-35. He's got Dwight Howard, but it's not really a strong rebounding team. He has Ginobli and Butler but it's not a great steals team either. Kevin Love getting 25-30 rebounds this week would have probably put me over the top in boards and made it a 5-4. I need Ray Allen to make 3's in his 4-game week. I don't like hearing Anthony Randolph has owie issues. I'm real anxious to see how Channing Frye does this week, hopefully letting me backdoor 3's.

I want to watch CP3 tear shizznit up. Even with him, I've got a pretty crappy assists and steals team. I decided to play up my team and go off of his other strengths - boards and percentages - and made mine more of a roto squad in this league. By being at the head of the dragon in the draft, I could see how teams formed - some big ball, some small ball - and I wanted to craft a squadron that could go up against anyone of them in a particular week. Once I saw there were several small ball teams, I didn't want to risk it by going small as well and chancing I could get beaten in my core and lose 7-2 or 8-1. So I'm leaning towards getting 6-3's, 5-4's, maybe a 4-5 sprinkled in. Now if someone could get Mr. Miyagi or Alanis Morrisette from Dogma to rub their hands together and heal Love and Randoplh for me, it would be much appreciated.

PS Basketball Monster says I have the best team value, +0.96, in this league - one of only 4 with a positive value. That tends to mean not so much in head to head and with non-replaceable injuries.

Hey! Nellie!

2009-10-25T09:19:00.001-07:00

Start this guy, dammit! Who are you trying to impress?!? Enjoy your job in Oakland, because I can't see you drawing a paycheck anywhere else. Sorry, maybe Memphis. But Northwest Airlines doesn't have any non-stop flights to Honolulu - what will you do? Here's a thought: play Anthony mothertruckin' Randolph! And Anthony Morrow while you're at it. Oh, and people in Atlanta are laughing at you since you have Acie Law IV as a backup small forward. Thanks for giving Acie a brand new position to suck at. Good gravy what a mess you've got out there. Mavs fans should be pissed for the next 15 years for losing to you in '07. Pick a lineup and stick with it, you're going to suck either way. That is all.

GMTR Mock Draft - rounds 12 and 13

2009-10-22T19:31:00.001-07:00

My draft is over, nerds!

Hola, dudes. I know it's been a while since I rapped at ya, but I was busy juggling and stuff. You may notice that I skipped rounds 10 and 11. Boo to the muthafreakin' hoo. In actuality, I didn't like those picks - Marc Gasol and Kirk Hinrich. Perfectly fine picks, I guess, but no flair, no pizzazz. I guess I won't lose the league with those picks, and as long as they don't fall of the face of the earth, I'll be fine. I do like that I got a serviceable center who can steal a bit and a guy who may play28 minutes a night (is possible trade bait) and can shoot 3's. Kirk actually triggered my late round run on threes, which is a perfectly swell draft strategy. Since I got my Basketball Monster subscription mid-draft, I started examining where I was deficient. The more big men I took (Nene, Anthony Randolph, ...) I was falling behind in 3's, even with gunners like Ray Allen and Troy Murphy. I don't have a small ball team built on steals/assists/threes, but I do have 3 guys who do other things - Allen with FT% and some scoring, and of course Murphy with rebounding (stay healthy, you filthy Mick (no offense!)). That way I knew I could go with three point shooters late, not damage categories I had built up like percentages, TO's, and boards. So Hinrich started my late three ball roll.

As I watched rounds 11 and 12 go forward ( 22 picks before I had pick 12-12), I had two clear targets in mind for my back to back picks (#144 and #145): Channing Frye and Anthony Morrow. Here's where you've got to love having your draft as close to the start of the season as possible, where you get to see preseason games and at least glimpses of lineups and playing time. You're getting information. You read what is going on with certain teams. You see that Phoenix's roster is not the same as last year. Hey, who's that starting at center? Wait, doesn't he have some sort of outside shot? He's got center eligibility and he will take threes? Why will he still be on the board? Here's where you've got to be selective in your take on preseason. Don't look at his percentages or results - look at where his numbers are coming from. He has had some brutal shooting games so far (1-9, 2-10, 2-11), mixed with some great games. He's taken threes in every game and made threes in (almost) every game. The minutes have been steady. So he's playing every night and has the green light. And he's not playing because someone is hurt (sorry, Robin Lopez). He is the Suns center. Here's where it's good to be like a good poker player - making correct moves not based on results but by the right opportunity. This is your post-pick #120 flyer. I know that there are at least 3 small ball teams who were picking twice each before my 12th round pick. In a true league with starters and benchers, I would have to think one of them should have taken a grab at the C-eligible who shoots 3's. From the comments in round 13, I think they were all counting on him being there. There's your snake draft lesson - it's not a reach if you grab your guy a hair early if you are at the ends.

The next pick - Anthony Morrow. Here can be the danger of preseason. Morrow, my favorite Yellow Jacket in the Association, is not going to play 30 minutes a night in the regular season like he has 4 times this preseason (including a 48 minute / 32 point / 6 threes gem a week and a half ago). But hey, he is playing, he is playing for Nellie, and the right streak in a 4 game week is all I need a few times this year. If he doesn't play, so what, he won't hurt percentages or TO's. And in a moveless league, I'll probably be going up against teams with injured players giving nothing (that would have been me in this league last year). Minimal downside, huge upside - dictionary definition of the 13th round pick. 3 of the next 5 drafters lamented that they didn't get Morrow. Eye Heart Validation.

So keep an eye on preseason if your draft is late enough. Look at numbers, but keep in mind the reasons behind the numbers and get your guys when you can late.

GMTR Mock Draft rounds 8+9

2009-10-14T07:53:00.000-07:00

Marvin (Berry) and (Buddy) Love

So I'm at the point where I need a small forward to round out my roster. Technically, I don't really need one right now as I could start filling up the utilities, but if I wait too long, any small forward I have to start will start pulling in negatives, like, say a Richard Jefferson. Living in Atlanta, I like Marvin Williams. He's got a great mid-range jumper, is athletic enough to finish on the break, added the three pointer to his game last year, is a starter, and can pull in enough counting stats in a week to be dangerous. Plus, if any other Hawks starter goes down, he usually picks up the slack - he had 2 great games last year when Joe Johnson was out. I don't like that he's young and already has back problems. I heartily approve of the fact that he does a lot of things "good", but nothing "great". He will get to the line a lot (3rd most on the Hawks behind Johnson and Smith) and make more than 80% of them, which is nice. I've built a pretty good percentages team, so it's nice getting a PF that won't hurt me there. As I said in the draft blurb, it's a better roto pick than a head-to-head pick, but I really can't complain about getting him in round 8.

You know what else I like? Big white guys who can rebound and not miss a lot of shots. Kevin Love raises his hand and says, "Hey, that's me!" He rebounded a-plenty when Al Jefferson was out, and just before Big Al got hurt, he was getting his share of boards alongside Al. Love is going to get a double double this year - really it won't be too hard, because he can make 4 shots, 2 free throws, and find himself around 10 misses a night. It's what he does when not doing those things are going to be the key for him. Supposedly, he is a great passer - well let's see it! Jefferson can finish, pass it to him! We haven't seen the defense yet from him, and I'd be shocked if I see it this year. At this point in the draft, I wanted to collect guys who won't pull things I have off the table, so getting a good rebound guy with solid %'s (I'd like to see him shoot closer to 50% from the field) is what I wanted here. Plus he'll hold onto the ball - TO's are for suckas.

So examining my team on the Monster, I look to be horrible in points and threes (even with Ray Allen and Troy Murphy). I won't be able to make a serious dent in points because all of the scorers are off the board after 100 or so picks. Since it is a head-to-head league, I could get lucky if Boston and Indiana both play 4 games in a week (which they do 4 times, once in the playoffs). I'll need at least one more guy who can maybe pull in a couple of threes a night if I want to go ahead and try to back-door a win in threes. I am below average in assists. Again, with Chris Paul leading the way, I could back-door a win if he gets 60 assists in a week (3 or 4 games). With 4 picks left, I can gamble on a guy who might get assists, as I'll now have counterbalances to that guy's likely deficiencies in percentages and TO's. Right now, I have a great shooting team, both from the field and the line. I could now possibly handle a chucker who shoots 41%, or I can handle a center who shoots 60%, since I'm not too worried about the volume. I'm good in rebounding - that probably will be the easiest thing to improve, for me and for everyone else. Other counting stats are okay; here, I'll have to hope for good schedules in particular weeks.

Four picks left, we'll see how the other teams are shaping up.

Kaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhnnnn!

2009-10-11T07:08:00.000-07:00

When everyone thinks of iconic sitcoms set in Minnesota, really only one comes to mind. What's that you say? Little show set in the third rated newsroom with a girl who had spunk? I hate spunk. No that show of shows was Coach. It had it all, depending on how you define "all". When you think about it, the Minnesota Timberwolves are a lot like that plucky ABC show that took place in Minnesota (and also at the end, Orlando, but there's no fun in that, is there?). I mean, when you think of sitcoms, do you really think of Coach? Have you heard anything from the guy who played Dauber since then? Well compare that to Mark Blount. Who was a better coach, Luther or Kevin McHale? Take your time on that one. The show was about lovable losers who gave us a lot of laughs (your laugh miles may vary) and eventually won a mythical championship. Maybe the Wolves can win something in a few years as well. Not now, don't rush things.

All things fantasy with the Wolves start with Al Jefferson. Dude can straight up 20 and 10, block it a li'l, and be a nice big man in your lineup at the end of the first round. Since he'll be at the end of round 1, you have your choice of coming back with a solid PG at the beginning of round 2, or a second big like Bosh. It's really going to make the fact you don't have a high draft number be all right. I'm going to say the knee is alright and he's ready to rock. Add to the fact that Kurt Rambis is going to push the pace this year, and you've got the makings of a decent team to follow fantasywise, just don't expect them to real world it.

So who else is fantasy worthy on the Wolves? Well, in standard leagues, it's probably only going to be Kevin Love. He says he wants to average a double double this year. See, it's nice to have goals. And I'm pretty sure he can actually do it. Doesn't mean you should draft him in a round you can express with one hand (maybe if you use your thumb and forefinger to make a seven, but you don't need to do that). If you're going to go with big men who score a little and rebound but don't steal, block, shoot 3's, or pass, you should go David Lee --> Luis Scola --> Kevin Love. You'll get all the decent percentages and low turnovers, so those guys aren't completely useless. They just need to fit in your overall strategy.

Hey, Ryan Gomes ain't so bad either. He'll be there in the late rounds of your draft, but don't pick him, save those spots for upside guys. He'll be the guy you pick up when the Wolves play a 4 game week, or if there is an injury to one of the above. If you've got a streamer in your league, he's most likely well aware of Mr. Gomes.

I like Ramon Sessions. I can see the lure of Johnny Flynn. I don't know if I like them splitting time in the backcourt, and if Minnesota ever wants to defend anyone, I can't see them on the court at the same time, so it will be a pure minute split. Feel free to draft Ramon late, and hold or drop depending on how the minutes and stats shake out.

Right now on Yahoo!, Ricky Rubio has an average draft position of 129.9. I'm going to say you don't draft him at #130. Call it a hunch.

Man, there really isn't much to this team after Big Al. But GM David Kahn has sent Minnesota up with a lot of expiring contracts. Some teams are going to find themselves out of it in February and come calling to Minny to bail them out. Really, the Twin Cities is not going to be a free agent destination, so I think they will trade to get some guys with contracts that go out a couple of years. I wouldn't be surprised if something happened with Golden State in the coming months and they just acquire draft picks like Oklahoma City. If anything happens before the trade deadline, Minnesota could be a team to watch after the All Star break.

GMTR Mock Draft Rounds 6+7

2009-10-10T05:29:00.000-07:00

Round 4 - Ray
Round 5 - Nene
Round 6 - Andre
They rhyme! Really, that's all you can hope for in a fantasy draft. And I was unbelievably lucky, too. How many words in the English language rhyme with the "Ay" sound? Not many I believe, only slightly more than rhyme with orange and silver.

Round 6 may be my first truly questionable pick. I was at the point where I was looking at my team - I liked where I was going so far, a mix of big and small players anchored by Chris Paul who will cure what ails ya. Right now, there were 3 or 4 teams playing pure small ball strategy, and 2 to 3 teams with strong big leanings. I wanted picks in these 2 rounds that could counteract both types of teams. At this point in the draft, there had been 17 point guard eligible players picked (Yahoo league, so this includes Dwyane Wade and Brandon Roy). I knew that I needed a PG here who could give me assists. After the run on PG's at the end of round 2, I didn't get another PG to shore up assists. Anyone I get at 96/97 (rnds 8+9) would pull in more negatives than I wanted in fg% and/or TO's (think Raymond Felton). I had so far built a solid FG% and TO team, so I wanted that type of PG going forward to get me dimes.

Now in this draft, as a group we have been scared off by a lot of players forcing them further down from what you've been seeing as average draft positions elsewhere. Boozer, Camby, Pierce, Marion - plenty of people just don't want them. Part of this is because this league we're drafting in is a no move league; who we draft is on our roster for the entire year, so you want those 80 game/30 minutes per types. Now with Andre Miller, you'll get the 82 games - he's the league's ironman right now, and probably gets more tail than AC Green. But that's not important right now. I think a lot of dudes and dudettes are scared off by the Portland backcourt sitch, as Steve Blake is there, Roy gets serious minutes, and Rudy Fernandez will get his time too. Will Miller get the minutes he had last year on Philly? No. Will he get more than 24? Yes, and I see something in the 30-32 range, which should give him the opportunity for plenty of assists. His FG% is good for a PG, but that entails the fact he is not a huge 3 point shooter. His steal numbers are average at best, but he can get you the 3 or 4 steal night every once in a while. I left other PG options like Mario Chalmers and Russell Westbrook on the board, fully aware they wouldn't make it back around. I think this pick of Miller was safe, but not exactly game changing. We'll see how it goes.

Now to start off the seventh round, I wanted a good splash pick. Yes, Boozer and Camby are still on the board at this point. And good blocks guys will be off the board soon as teams move into the specialist picks. And there was one guy who I wanted to get so I could follow all year, Anthony Randolph. His last month of the season in 08-09 was incredible. With Brandan Wright going down, he should be the main man as power forward in Oakland. He got 1.2 blocks per game last year - that was in only 18 mpg. Think of the blockingness if his minutes double, which it could. Heck, he got 41-1/2 minutes in a freakin' preseason game last night! I want to see what he does outside tonight in Indian Hills - maybe some Rucker-esque slams and 3rd row putbacks. Barring injury, he's going to be a fun guy to watch, and if he blows up, he can give me top half of the draft value, which, of course, is how you win your leagues.

I'll also say that around the time of these picks is when Basketball Monster went live again for the 09-10 season. So perhaps I'll be overthinking the next few picks, paralyzing things by analyzing things. Don't worry, the numbers won't work out where I pick Sebastian Telfair.

I'll keep review picks I make through round 13. Head back to Give Me the Rock for more round analysis by Erik of GMTR and Points in the Paint fame. He's been so good on recapping that he's practically influencing future picks (not mine... well, maybe). We are witnessing fantasy observer effect, a veritable Schrodinger's Cat of fantasy hoops. Maybe something good can come out of it, and we get Heisenberg compensators to allow for the creation of transporters.

Where I examine the World Wide Leader...

2009-10-06T16:31:00.000-07:00

You may not know about it since you might not be on their sites for fantasy hoops, but nba.com and ESPN have brought together their fantasy games into one platform. I have some experience with ESPN's fantasy site for hoops - it runs quite smoothly in drafting and league management and the ability to auction draft is sweet. I still don't like that position eligibility locks in once the season starts. Anyone who has read 82games knows that players oft play more than one position and sometimes, over the course of a season, players move positions due to injuries. I always liked this on Yahoo!, where sometimes a guy gets a position added after a few weeks and can really open up your roster, especially if you incorporate a big-ball or small-ball strategy. Really, it's a small complaint, and ESPN does just fine for many a fantasy player. And from what I've seen, they've opened it up a little so that some players are eligible for more than 1 position, more so than last year. Bully for them.

On the other side, I'm glad that nba.com has moved away from the fantasy side. They were brutal last year. First of all, they started late. Then they didn't have all they players. And then drafts kept screwing up. What should have been an hour long process took over 3 hours. Then it didn't count stats correctly the first 2 weeks. Maybe they fixed it, I don't know, because we ditched it then and there. It's a shame, because they had some things I liked, like free stat tracking, links to in-game box scores on nba.com (still nice, but I don't go out of my way to go to them now), and the chance to make multi-team trades. There is nothing like the satisfaction of pulling of a three team deal where everyone improves (but one team really doesn't and you just wanted to screw them). Their Stock Exchange they had the last couple of years was cool too, but that got real old after a while. Count me as one of the many who started it last October then gave it up by Thanksgiving.

But anyway, I want to look some more at ESPN. This year, they have built upon last year, where everything was revised, fresh, and responsive to what a lot of the people want (just that old SNL skit from the 80's or early 90's where Kevin Nealon and Dana Carvey were male strippers who shaved their pubes "for da people". I can't find it - please tell me someone else remembers this. And no, it's not the only SNL skit from that era I remember. What about Schmitt's Gay?) Now everything isn't so new, and they don't have to tout everything, it's just smoothly up and running. I like a lot of their league options, and leagues are very fungible for what you want. Really, it's 2009, it should be like that.

Since it's been up and running, they take it seriously. While there was not much content over the summer months, they've got their staff putting out product now. For instance, Josh Whitling has a great article up today about 9-cat (turnover) leagues (ESPN defaults to 8-cat, no TO's). It was good to hear him mentioning playing against the "point guards and power forwards" strategy that is ESPN's fantasy basketball mind numbing mantra like "Mola Ram, Sula Ram", with Matthew Berry as their Mola Ram (after a few Long Islands, ladies, they kinda look similar). While they don't turn the fantasy world upside down, they do write good enough articles where the novice and the high intermediate players can get something out of it. And they have content, unlike some platforms that have their big board un-updated since July 31st (cough, Yahoo, cough, Brandon Funs-cough-ton). At least Yahoo's stat tracker is free this year; they must have felt the heat from ESPN who has had it for free already.

Here's one last thing I want to bring up. With all their writers, ESPN did a 10 team mock draft last week. Again, they don't seem to think turnovers matter, so it's an eight cat league. Whatever, but I tend to think that turnovers give you a truer value of a player. Dwight Howard's TO's are a major knock against him, enough that it's tough for me to see him as a real MVP when he can bring two glaring negatives to the table. Anyway, their draft goes along, and you can really see many of them praying to the church of PG/PF's (save for Whitling, even as he got the #1 pick and CP3; needless to say, I liked his draft). I'm going to focus in on one, Keith Lipscomb, a very solid writer for the four-letter.

Keith had the #8 pick and took Dwight Howard, perfectly fine for 8-cat H2H. He comes right back with Al Jefferson. I love it, two 20-10 guys off the board. Now ESPN standard league employ 13 roster spots, 3 bench, only 1 center, and 3 utility. If it were a 2-center must play league, I'd think about coming back with another center to screw other teams over and to lock down big ball cats. ESPN 1 center, I can see going non big or maybe even PF. But Lipscomb goes point guard and at 28 takes Baron Davis. Now even if Boom Dizzle were in his free-wheeling Nellieball time, it's a bad pick. First of all, the Clips pace was near standstill. And while he'll get assists, steals and threes, none of them are really game and roster changers. He's a shooter with FG% in the low 40's, and if he gets any volume, it negates one of your two big men. He made a pure roto pick in a head to head league, and he got sucked into the PG/PF mantra. With a big 2 like Howard and Jefferson, I'd look for a PG that can build off of those 2's FG%, give up 3's, then maybe look for steals from non PG's. I'm thinking Rose, Parker and Miller to name three. Rose isn't that big of a stretch - he went #32. And Lipscomb took Parker in round 5 at #48. Josh Smith went at #31 - that would have been a serious pick for him at 28. Maybe he can trade Davis later in the year. You can pore over the rest of the draft and one writer's analysis. I'm surprised he didn't bring this up.

The deal is, I like ESPN's site, but you can get bashed over the head with their "point guards and power forwards" strategy. I know, there's more to it than that. Just be sure you don't blindly follow it, or you'll be stuck with Randy Foye as your shooting guard. As of right now, I'm not playing ESPN this year, but I can be convinced if someone invites me to a league. Good luck to you if it's your platform of choice.

GMTR Mock Rounds 4+5

2009-10-05T08:00:00.000-07:00

The third round in the Give Me The Rock Readers Mock Draft was a tough one to wrap your head around. Point guards Jameer Nelson, Rajon Rondo, and Tony Parker all jumped off the board (as well as Memhet Okur, a good but not great small-ball team center), while more established wings and power forward types came off in round 4 (Josh Smith, Vince Carter, Kevin Garnett, Shawn Marion, Carmelo Anthony, Tim Duncan, and Elton Brand). So after 47 picks, the order of players picked may not have been perfect, the right players were mostly off the board. I had a glimmer of hope that some former 1st round picks with question marks may still be on the board (Brand, Garnett, Marion), but that all happened right before my pick. C'est la mocque.

As the fourth round was rolling around, I could see some teams clear strategies, mainly big ball, small ball, mid ball/across the board, and whatever pick 12 (Project Spurs) is trying to do.

Here are the small ball teams I wanted to attack:
Pick 3 (Kardashian Babymaker) Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson, Gilbert Arenas
Pick 5 (Ncizzle) Kobe Bryant, Chauncey Billups, Kevin Martin, Al Harrington
Pick 6 (Killer Instincts) Danny Granger, Jose Calderon, Mehmet Okur
Pick 10 (pwangsta) Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Antawn Jamison, Jason Terry

At this point in the draft, I wanted with my back-to-back picks to make dents in both big ball and small ball teams by taking one of each. I had one big in mind, and if he was taken, I'd go with 2 guards. Those 2 guards were Ray Allen and Monta Ellis. I knew at some point, Allen would have to come off the board because of his threes and FT%. While his FT% is over 90%, the volume isn't there. But coupled with a big who is mediocre from the stripe but with not a lot a volume, it smooths out into a palatable figure. Anyway, I knew that Ray had to be a target eventually (at least before my pick 72 in round 6) for either the small ball teams to lock down 3's or big ball teams who wanted some 3's without taking a big hit in FG%. So with Allen and Murphy, I had a nice block of threes where I can definitely hold my own week to week. If I wanted to come back with Monta Ellis, I would be solidifying FG% from the guard spot, getting more points, and adding to steals (with little to no addition to threes). In the end, while I thought this would be a good piece, I wanted to get another center since not many had been taken, and I thought there would be a run on C's in the next 10-15 picks.

I thought Nene would be my strongest option for my team. He shot over 60% from the field last year, and I have to believe he can get near that high again. Rebounds are decent but not spectacular. Free throw percentage is fair/good for a center. The big thing for me was that he led all center eligibles in steals last season (even more than Dwight Howard). Since Denver will be playing at least 3 games a week every week of the season, I figure that he should give me 4 steals a week from the center position. That's going to be a bonus that teams who get centers later won't get. So while Monta Ellis would have been good for me in steals, I believe that Nene + a later round guard can give me just as many if not more thefts as Ellis + a later round center who probably won't steal much at all.

Three players I looked at were taken with the next three picks: Al Horford (who can be good for a double-double and a not-bad assist guy for a center eligible), Monta Ellis, and Paul Pierce who made it into the 5th round. While I like PP, I thought the negative he brings would take too much away from what I'm doing so far, namely in FG% and TO's. I have a feeling there are enough SF's out there who can approach his scoring but won't turn it over/miss as many shots.

Right now, things I need to work on are points and assists, possibly more steals, could always use more rebounds, and would not like to lose much in FT%. Is that so much to ask?

GMTR Mock Draft rounds 2+3

2009-10-01T18:46:00.000-07:00

Lopez & Murphy

Well, I wanted Jose Calderon if I got Chris Paul in a Head to Head league - NO plays 2 games in weeks 5 and 6, while Toronto plays 4 games in each of those weeks. Since I am counting on doing solidly in assists, I wanted the back-up for that. So my initial plan was to get another top tier PG (with Calderon being my #1 choice) and pairing him with whoever was left of Brook Lopez or Troy Murphy. I figured that whichever PF/C I got would start to mold my team off of the Chris Paul framework. With Lopez, I'd get some boards, great FG%, very good blocks, and very little drop off in FT%. With Murphy, I'd get the boards, FG% that is not a drag, and those delicious threes from a big man that I know that teams who had drafted two guards in the first two rounds would target (teams with picks 3, 5, 6, and 10).

But once Calderon came off the board with the seventh pick of the second round, I had to change my strategery. Calderon is a part of a tier of PG's worthy of being drafted in round 2. Luckily, the next 4 picks before mine were PG-eligible players - Billups, Kidd, Johnson, and Harris. But those players are all under 45% from the field. I am looking to hold onto FG% with Chris Paul as long as I can. I love Lopez this year because of that. And if he can block 2 shots a night, so much the better.

The first pick of the third round may be the one I regret down the road, but I like it from a league strategy point. 10 guards were taken in the 22 picks between my #1 and #2. Three teams took 2 guards (Johnson/Wade, Billups/Bryant, Williams/Nash), along with teams that came back with guards after drafting Durant and Granger. That's 5 teams I know could have used Troy Murphy in round 3. One of them will have to take Al Harrington at some point for their center, and that will pull down their already damaged FG% (by the likes of Harris, Billups, etc.) Also, Lopez, Murphy, and a good for a guard rebounder Paul put me right up there with teams going big ball.

Basically, I'm going a little roto in this H2H league. This year, I think that's a good idea with Chris Paul and it's because of their schedule. This year, New Orleans has the most weeks with 4 games, 13. That also means that they have the most minimum game weeks, 4. So in those max game weeks, you can load up on assists and steals with Paul by himself, then add on the big man's work with the PF's and C's. In those 2 game weeks, it's like a pooch punt in assists and steals (CP3 could still blow up in 2 games though) but you've got the big-ball cats to fall back on. So even in those min game weeks, you can be 5-4, 6-3, or even 7-2. Now if this year New Orleans had a schedule like Denver (no 2 game weeks, least amount of 4 game weeks), I might lean more toward a strategy of guys who can build more on what Paul can do - steals, 3's, points, assists if they are there.

There were a bunch of guys who I was thinking of taking at 24 and 25. I'll discuss them in the comments after they are picked in reality. For a round by round discussion, check out Give Me The Rock recaps written by 2nd best Filipino fantasy guy (sorry E, but this guy is living the fantasy). Later haters!

PS When you put in "Mario Lopez" into Google image, you have to go down a good ways to find one where he's wearing a shirt. I'm scared to do a search with safe mode off.

Eight is Enough. Maybe Nine.

2009-09-30T08:00:00.000-07:00

Was it Kierkegaard or Dick Van Patten who said, "If you label me, you negate me?" My money's on Dick - he was a true genius. Perhaps he is best remembered by his ABC "hit" "Eight is Enough", starring future tattooed freak and Scott Baio compadre, Willie Aames and future typical child star Adam Rich. Thanks for your continued contributions to society, sirs! Yes, as a child of the 70's, I watched this show. It's amazing what you could get kids to watch if you have enough likable characters and maybe a few kids on it - are they doing this today? Is this why there is a Bill Engvall show?

Anyway, "Eight is Enough" took place in one of the loveliest little glens that the NBA likes to call home, Sacramento. I drove through Sacramento once. It was foggy. Is their arena deal done? Because I would love for this team to move to Las Vegas, be the Las Vegas Kings, have at least 4 jerseys (club, diamond, heart, spade, maybe Elvis too). Nobody in their right mind gambles on the NBA, you can take it off the books. But back to the Kings and all their Arco Arena splendor. This is another crappy NBA team (John Wall, start your condo search now), but has people worthy of drafting in a standard 12 x 13 league.

Martin! Kevin Martin is second/third round talent. You need to know that. Here are the pertinent numbers from last year: 24.6 ppg; 86.7 FT% @ 10.3 ftapg; 2.3 3pg. There he is, your pure shooting guard to plug in your SG spot. Of course, you'll notice that I mentioned only three categories - chances are you'll have nine, so I guess you're about six shy. Excuse-flippin'-me, we can't all be LeBron James! He'd be a really good roto pick, in that he could counteract a lot of, say Dwight Howard's deficiencies. Then again, he has played 51 and 61 games the last 2 seasons, so that may not work so well either. You'll have a lot of hand wringing with Kevin this year if you are debating drafting him. If it gets to be late in the 3rd round and he's available, go ahead and grab him if your team is set up to handle him. Or maybe you can go for the Kevin-Heaven strategy by picking Durant, Garnett, and Martin in the first 3 rounds. That will work for ya.

Depending on how you rank players, possibly the next best King is Francisco Garcia. Everyone likes players who can average 1 steal/1 block/ 1 three-pointer a game, right kids? Well Garcia done did that last year. You know who did that last year? LeBron, Wade, Granger and Garcia. So if you're stuck on who to pick in the first round, you should go with the Dominican, right? Um, yeah. He may not start, but he will get minutes. He's not a scorer, and while he gets the counting numbers, he won't rack them up. He's got more value in roto, too, but if you've got a strategy where you're punting points, he's a definite have. For instance, you're picking in the middle of round 1 and you start off with Danny Granger (I know, you're punting points, but still he does other things well), come back with Gerald Wallace, maybe a Josh Smith and/or Shawn Marion, grab a decent mid-tier PG who can pass, pick up Wilson Chandler in rd. 6 or 7, then you've got a lineup that can do some damage in any week. Oh, and when you draft Garcia, you have to say "Bring me the head of Francisco Garcia." It's one of Yahoo's new rules.

If you do your rankings another way, the next best King is Spencer Hawes. This guy will get thirty minutes a night probably. He can score a little, board a good amount, decent but not great from the field, not a FT shooter, should get slightly more than a block per game. Not bad numbers for the center position. But there are a couple sneaky things there with Hawes. Dude had 40 three's last year - look at who went all Memo Okur on us! And after Brad Miller was traded, he went for 20 points/10 boards five times and had several other games where he was close. I'm telling you, no one will come into your draft thinking of explicitly grabbing Hawes. And when he comes off the board, you likely won't even be thinking of him - not because he will be overdrafted, just that he's so far off of the consciousness of the NBA fan. At least tell me you'll think of him, okay?

Jason Thompson plays basketball for the Sacramento Kings as well. He's another one of those PF/C's who doesn't score much and can rebound and grabs some of your counting stats. Free throws, not so much. The things that stands out for me was that after Brad Miller was traded, Jason had 10 games of where he grabbed 10 or more rebounds. Man, was Miller a drag on this team or what? Again, this is another King you won't necessarily be thinking of come draft day. Keep him on your watch list in those shallow leagues.

Man, I would have loved to have seen Ricky Rubio in Kings purple. I guess Tyreke Evans ain't so bad neither. Anything that will push Beno Udrih further down the bench is okey dokey with me. The big thing with Evans is that he should get to the line a ton as that's his calling card. It would certainly help things if he could learn to hit the NBA 3, as Martin is really the only threat from long range. I'm rooting for him, just not about to draft him.

He's gritty, he'll hustle, and dammit, he'll work his way into the lineup. Keep living the dream, you 42% shooting Andres Nocioni. Oh, and Sean May sweats hollandaise sauce. There, that's eight Kings, that should be enough. Okay, nine. Kenny Thomas has one significant number - $8,553,125, the value of his expiring contract. That could shake up the lineup come February, when the Kings should be out of it, so watch their numbers at that time.

Give Me The Rock mock draft

2009-09-26T06:22:00.000-07:00

The mock draft for readers and whatnot has just started, and this humble writer has selection #1. Even though it's being done be Google spreadsheet, I took less than the allotted Yahoo time of 90 seconds to make the 1.1 selection of Chris Paul. It's a shame that I have to wait so long to back him up, but with picks 24/25, I can do some serious damage - 2 more guards, 2 bigs, one of each, or 2 scorers, or 2 hustle cat guys. I'm really excited about what CP3 can do this year. Now dance, Honey Bees!

(picture from SI.com)

One Game at a Time

2009-09-25T17:00:00.000-07:00

"One Day at a Time" was a sitcom in the on CBS in the 70's and the early 80's. Now I was a kid then, and I watched plenty of TV and I know I watched this show because I remember Valerie Bertinelli, Bonnie Franklin, Mackenzie Phillips, a bunch of other guys, and of course Schneider. Since it was written and produced by TV legend Norman Lear, it was a comedy that dealt with "serious" issues of the day, feminism, drugs, yadda yadda yadda. But for the life of me, I can't remember one episode or line of dialogue from this show. All I can picture is "Family Guy" spoofing it and the theme song. How is a show on for nine years and have no lasting memories or hipster ironic nostalgia? "Ally McBeal" was only on for five seasons - at least they had a dancing baby. I've got an odd curiosity to go into hulu.com and check out some old episodes, maybe if Sunday's 4pm NFL games are boring.

What does this have to do with fantasy hoops? Well, ODAAT was/is the only show I can think of, sitcom or otherwise, to take place in Indianapolis. I guess Louisville wouldn't give them tax breaks or something. ODAAT ran for 9 unmemorable seasons; the Pacers, since the 2000 Finals, have had 9 unmemorable seasons as well (Malice at the Palace notwithstanding). A TV legend Norman Lear ran the show withoud spectacular results. Larry Bird, what's your next move? Oh, and Schneider, the building superintendent could do it all, including throwing out double entendres. Ladies and gentlemen, Danny Granger!

Yes, Danny Granger can do it all on your fantasy team, and is a likely 1st round pick.
[25.8 ppg, 2.7 3pg, 5.1 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.0 spg, 1.4 bpg, 2.5 topg, 44.7 FG% @ 19.0 fgapg, 87.8 FT% @ 6.9 ftapg] I'll say it now: you can win your league if you've picked Danny Granger in the first round, but you won't win your league because you picked Danny Granger in the first round. Granger is a guy you want if you want to stay away from those "win every week 6-3 and punt a few categories" in head to head strategies. You can now go a lot of ways if you grab Granger in round 1 - Yahoo has him averagely drafted at 7.1; standard league, so who you take at 18 will show how you want to go about things for the year. If you look at who is listed 15-25 in average draft position, you can get a good direction for your team: Jefferson, Billups, Duncan, Nash, Butler, Jamison, Calderon, Iguodala, Joe Johnson, Harris, Kidd. You take a big, Granger is your SG, and got a nice big leaning lineup. You take a small, Granger is your SF and you can have a solid small leaning lineup. The point is, you take Granger, you can go a few ways - just like Schneider (c'mon, look at his mustache and rolled up cigarette pack, he's a disco backing track away from dancing next to an Indian chief and a dude in leather chaps!).

Ooh, here's a nifty fantasy player, Troy Murphy. Perhaps you remember him from hits such as "I Was The Second In The League In Rebounds - No, Really!", "I'm Big and I Shoot Threes - The Bill Laimbeer Story", and "Dial D for Downtown". I'll say it now: you can win your league if you've picked Troy Murphy in the second round, but you won't win your league because you picked Troy Murphy in the second round. Again, he's another player where you'll need help around him, but he can provide you a nice base. I'm not 100% sold he'll put up similar numbers to last year, but anyone who has the possibility of putting up 2 three's a night and 10+ rebounds a night can be a fantasy star. We have seen his ceiling, so I'm not going to be surprised if he's not 2nd in the league in rebounds. Like Valerie Bertinelli post this show, I think we've seen the peak, and it's not going to get better.

Well, Mike Dunleavy's season was a waste last year. He's not going to reach his status of last year of 4th/5th round-ness, but if you need a scorer who can put in some threes, he'll do nicely. Hopefully, your draft is after he's had a few preseason games under his belt so you know he can play. I wonder if he has daddy issues like "One Day at a Time"'s Mackenzie Phillips. Dear God of all that is green on this earth I hope not.

I'll say it now: you can win your league if TJ Ford is on your roster, but it will be because you have TJ Ford on your bench on your roster. He's not a three point shooter, he'll steal a little but not a lot, he doesn't pass it enough, he'll turn it over more than he needs to, and he'll hoodwink someone in your league because they'll say, "hey, he's the starting PG for a kinda-up-and-down team, that's a good pick." I can't have him as one of my top 2 guards; good luck for you.

Jeff Foster or Roy Hibbert are going to be getting center minutes for the Pacers. That is one mighty deep league you are playing in. Yes, they will rebound, and the guy in his 11th year will do it better.

NBA career total points: Josh McRoberts - 92; Tyler Hansbrough - 0. I believe that argument is settled. With Dahntay Jones on the Pacers roster, they have 3 Dukies, and we're not even talking about Bobby Hurley playing for Indiana University in Blue Chips. I'll let all y'all make a joke containing the following words: Pacers, Duke, white, scrappy, suck, gritty, pasty, Gene Hackman, Ollie, miss the playoffs, and can't jump.

I miss Marquis Daniels and Jarrett Jack on this team, since they at least had some fantasy value. Travis Diener and Solomon Jones - less so. Although I will keep an eye on Luther Head and Brandon Rush.

I look forward to a few Pacers games this year, as I feel I'll be saddled with Troy Murphy on at least one of my teams and I'll be mildly underwhelmed. Up next on my crappy team preview - the Sacramento Kings.

16 blocks down, 2 blocks over from "30 Rock"

2009-09-23T13:00:00.000-07:00

I was reading this preview of one of the squadrons in the National Basketball Association. We get it, the Knicks suck. But man, sucky teams are fantasy gold, Jerry, gold! That's what I love about fantasy hoops - not every team has a LeBron or Kobe, but everyone has a gunner like Al Harrington or numbers guy like Gerald Wallace or all the guys who do stuff for Golden State. You win fantasy leagues by following the crappy teams. Last year I had 8 different Thunder players (I still don't know what to call them - Thunderers? Thunderinos? Thundi?) on my 4 teams last year, and they all had their moments (yes, even Kyle Weaver, not so much Chris Wilcox).

The point is, I get a lot more enjoyment out of the bad teams in fantasy hoops - they'll put up numbers, and if you've got some less than hardcore guys in your league, you'll get the jump on them because they don't know about the next Andris Biedrins or Francisco Garcia because they're watching Cavs-Heat for the third time this year on a Sunday on ABC (consult local listings). So today, I want to look at one of those sucky teams that can give you fantasy joy, the New York Knickerbockers. A few years ago, there was a little sitcom on NBC that was supposed to be horrible, but now is pulling in Emmy after freakin' Emmy, and not just those technical ones that no one cares about. They've got quality up and down the lineup; in my sitcom characters fantasy league, I grabbed Jack Donaghy, came right back with Tracy Jordan, grabbed Judah Friedlander's Frank in the late middle, and grabbed Grizz (but couldn't get Dot Com). Someone reached for Kenneth the Page - solid, a tad overrated. What, you're not in a sitcom fantasy league? You're missing out. With Barney Stinson, I could have my best year since '87 when I had Alex Keaton, Dan Fielding, Blanche Devereaux, Woody Boyd, Jackee, and Agnes DiPesto (yes, we had "Moonlighting" as a comedy). Anyway, back to the Knicks.

With Mike D'Antoni as the Jack Donaghy-like man in charge, the pace will be high. Only the Warriors had more possessions per game than the Knicks. But the Knicks were far enough away from being the highest scoring team in the league, so what does that mean? Rebounds and some more rebounds. If you're looking for boards in a week, keep an eye on teams that play the Knicks twice withing a fantasy week. Right now, there are 3: Charlotte in week 8, Chicago in week 17 (right after All Star break) and Philly in week 21 (which may or may not be in your playoffs depending on how you set it up). [Note: Detroit has a back-to-back with New York, but that is spread over 2 fantasy weeks.] Gerald Wallace might be nice to have in week 8; Tyson Chandler, if healthy, may be available at that time, so he could be a good FA pickup then. Any of the Bulls in their 4/5 spot roster mish-mosh is a solid play for week 17 (except for Jerome James). And someone is going to be grabbing loose balls in March for the Sixers - wouldn't it be nice if Marreese Speights or someone like him was doing it for your squad?

But back to the Knicks themselves. Rebounds are out there, and the main rebounding guy (on a sad rebounding team) was and is David Lee. After a sluggish 2-1/2 week stretch in November last season (where he went for 10.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg, and 54 FG% on 8 shots a game), he turned in a season where he posted double digits averages in scoring (16.0) and double digits in rebounding (11.7, third in the league) - I believe the kids call this a "double-double". Now me, I love Davey more than the next guy, but since he doesn't block the ball and doesn't shoot 3's like a Troy Murphy, he's kind of a tough fit on your typical roster. Lee has to be on a roster where he can amplify, like Ando on "Heroes". You don't want him on your small-ball team because his strengths are FG%, boards, and lack of TO's - things you'll be tanking for this type of team. Let's say you have pick #1 and you take Chris Paul (since he's goodish and all). Also, say your team so far is Chris Paul, Joe Johnson, and Jason Kidd (picks 1 and around 24 and 25 average draft position in Yahoo drafts). Lee is not your best choice at 48 (Lee's average pick is at 47.9). But if your team is Paul, Calderon, and Jamison, you can handle Lee at 48% since your FG% will be solid, FT% has a base, TO's not bad even with 2 top PG's, steals you'll be nice in, and you've got roster flexibility as Jamison is SF/PF and Lee is PF/C. Your team can go small or big depending on picks 49, 72, and 73. Monta Ellis at SG could give you a serious backcourt; plenty of centers go in round 5 and load up on bigs. And there's a chance that Dave could get SF eligibility like he did early last year. Of course, 24/25 is too early to get Lee, and 48/49 may be too late. He might fit better on your team if you are picking late in round 1 (and thus you probably went big Amar'e or Jefferson or even Gasol). The point is, with Lee, even though he is center-eligible, it's better for your team if he isn't in one of your center spots.

The next Knick dude is Al Harrington. You have to give a tip of the hat to Messrs. D'Antoni and Nelson, as he would be much much much less of a player if he were not center eligible. Let's look at what he is from last year: 20.1 ppg, 2.3 3pg, 79.3 FT at 4 attempts per game. Also, his 1.2 spg is rather handy. The knocks on him, using last years numbers, are 43.9 FG% (on 16.6 attempts per game), 6.2 rpg, 2.2 topg, and 0.3 bpg, all of which are very un-center-like. In fact, those numbers are very Ben Gordon-like, and it's kind of tough to win consistently when you have Ben Gordon. But if Al's your center, you are going pure small ball for 6-3/5-4 type wins. Sure, you say you want to go small-ball, guy who drafts Troy Murphy in round 3 (or Vishnu help you, round 2), but you can still backdoor into rebounds because he was, like, 2nd in the league per game. If Al's one of your 2 centers (standard 12 team, 13 player, 2 centers play league), maybe Il Mago your other C, you are dead on straight small ball, punting boards, blocks, and FG%, maybe even TO's. You're going to need steals to pull this off, but if you have a guard like Paul or Wade, you are wasting Paul's FG% base and Wade's FG% and blocks bases. Here's a few small-ball possibilities you can have where you would take Harrington.

Middle of first round - you take Kobe, Durant, or Granger
Middle of second round - you take a PG without a great FG% - Billups, Kidd, or Arenas
Middle of third round - you take an SG/SF who can hit threes or steal - Wallace or Jamison

or

End of first round - you take Deron Williams or Brandon Roy
Beginning of second round - you take one of the above PG's
End of third round - Wallace or Jamison or a scorer w/o a great FG% - Vince Carter or Kevin Martin.

Harrington is not a bad fit on either one of those teams, but if you are fumbling through your draft and Harrington is the highest player left on you hastily arranged pre-draft rankings, taking him is a sure way to screw up your team.

Third on the list of Knicks you can use is Wilson Chandler. He got the 1 three per game (1.3), but was knocking on the door of the 1-1-1 club by coming up a hair shy in blocks (0.9) and steals (0.9). He's SG/SF eligible in Yahoo!, so he can be a solid addition in your big-ball or small-ball or balanced team. He got 33 minutes per game last year, and since the roster is not particularly deep, he should get near those minutes again. FG percentage is a killer at around 43% for his short career; anything approaching 45 would greatly improve his value, since he puts up a decent amount per game. Chandler's value improves when he is joined with other 1-1-1 guys, like a Durant or Wade or Granger led team and/or one with Shawn Marion. If he's a guard in your lineup, he's got a great rebound rate and a nice asset to a big ball team. With the Knicks having the most 4-game weeks of any team in the association (same as New Orleans, 13), guys who can fill up the hustle categories these weeks have an added benefit. He's going to be a good value pick in the middle of the draft - I'm looking at round 6, but not earlier.

Another guy you could consider drafting in the starter portion of your draft (top 10 rounds x 12 teams = top 120) is Nate Robinson, KryptoNate. He'll shoot 3's, steal it, score a decent amount, you know, all point guardy stuff except the real point guardy stuff, passing the ball. He's going to shoot about 14 or 15 times a night, so if he's on your team, you better be able to handle it. He's a nice guy to have on your team if you've got scorers and need to fill some other categories; you'll probably need a guy like Chris Anderson or Ronny Turiaf as well.

Chris Duhon is the last Knick you can feel decent about drafting, if only because you're in the bench part of your draft. Like a lot of Knicks, he'll make less than 45% of his shots, but at least he's passing it to other guys who will make less than 45% of their shots. He'll make a few 3's (though this one still grinds my gears). Again, with NYK having all those 4-game weeks, he won't be a bad guy to have on your bench to plug in at the right time.

The rest of the team has chances to be fantasy valuable. Danilo Gallinari had some brief flashes when his wasn't hurt with his neck and/or his back. If he's healthy, there's your source for bench 3's. Toney Douglas could be a backcourt defensive specialist - with PT, he could be a poor man's Mario Chalmers. Hey, look, it's Jared Jeffries. And I'm rooting for Larry Hughes have a few good games, just for someone to pick him up then proceed to throw out some 2-11's with no 3's and no steals. Maybe he'll be relevant again so this website starts back up.

And for pure entertainment value (as in not on my team but fun to look at crappy box scores entertainment), Darko Milicic and Eddy Curry are out there, ready to be picked up.

So you see, the Knicks are a crappy team, but they provide a lot of fantasy-ness, more so, I think, than a good to great team like the Cavaliers. I'll look at some more crappy teams up until the season start. Next, the Indiana Pacers.

09/10 Schedules - Pacific Division

2009-09-18T00:00:00.000-07:00

This division has everything! The defending champs, a rebuilding team headed for the lottery, a team with a coach who could play anyone and everyone and still finish 11th, and a couple of veteran-laden teams that will make a good push but will most likely be making hotel reservations before a game on in mid-April (as a best case scenario). Let's see how their schedules look for the upcoming fantasy season.

Golden State

4-game weeks: 10
Minimum game weeks: 1
Playoff schedule: 4-3-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 1 - teams also at minimum this week: IND, MIL, UTA

Week one is rough, but after that, you can get a lot of mileage out of Golden State. They never play more than two 4-game weeks in a row, and they have a span of four weeks from mid-Dec. to mid-Jan. where they play 3-games. Their style of play, though, can often make a Golden State 3-game week as valuable, if not more so, as a 4-game week for a team like Detroit. The key here is figuring out who is getting the minutes (and where, if extra position eligibility helps you (for Yahoo leagues whose position eligibilities are quite fluid to your benefit, not ESPN whose leagues lock in eligibility at the start of the season (let me know if they changed this from last year))). Captain Jack led the league in minutes played last year; he'd be the first one you could count on playing a lot, but him playing a lot equals him missing shots a lot and him turning it over a lot. #2 is Monta Ellis. If you were going to target a Warrior, he's the one you want. The last 2 months of the year, he was a top 25 player. He's not going to give you three's, but rebounds and steals the ball quite well for a PG. If someone in your league drafts Derrick Rose ahead of him, say thank you very much and take all moped jokes in stride. Right now on Yahoo! drafts, Ellis is being taken 9 spots behind Rose (40.3 vs. 49.3). Ray Zalinski's American Public is putting too much stock into round 1 of last year's playoffs against the Celtics, I think.

Andris Biedrins is the Warriors other top 50ish player. I think you know what you are getting with him by now. And if someone asks you for your sleeper, don't say Anthony Randolph. Not that he's not a fine player, but maybe you'll be in a league where everyone kinda forgets about him. Stephen Curry is another player on my rookie hold list. Feel free to draft him in the "bench" level of your draft; I don't think he'll have any real value until playing rotations shake out (good luck in that on the Nelson bench) or until the inevitable Corey Maggette injury.

The Warriors schedule is such that it precludes picking someone up for a 3 or 4 week run of 4-gamers. But picking up a hot Warrior is now de rigeur for fantasy players this half of the decade, so you have to keep an eye out for Azubuike, Morrow, Watson, Turiaf, and Wright. What, I didn't mention Acie Law or Speedy Claxton or Devean George? Yeah, how 'bout them Clippers!

Los Angeles Clippers

4-game weeks: 12
Minimum game weeks: 3
Playoff schedule: 3-4-3-2

Week 6 - teams also at minimum this week: NOH, OKC, ORL, POR, SAS
Week 7 - teams also at minimum this week: MIA, NYK, WAS
Week 10 - teams also at minimum this week: DET

Gasp! I almost sorta like this team. Not in a let's-talk-about-their-playoff-chances like, I mean still-crappy-but-is-on-the-rise-and-has-decent-fantasy-players like. I'll take Eric Gordon on my team for the right price. Camby is still a viable fantasy big man. As far as I know, Kaman can still play. Hey, Baron Davis ain't so bad. I'm less of an Al Thornton fan after last year, but on the right squad he could be okay. Go ahead and throw Rasual Butler in the late bench rounds of your draft, he won't be half bad. Blake Griffin will be another overdrafted rookie, which is just fine by this guy. Maybe even the guys they got from Minnesota, Smith and Telfair, can produce.

So there are things to work with. The Clips have a lot of 4 game weeks, so when the injuries happen - and oh yes, they will happen - you could score with a few Clipperinos. They have two spans of three 4-game weeks in a row, once in Jan. and once in late Feb./early March. The Clippers are well under the luxury tax line, have expirings, and if they were a much more savvy organization, they could produce a lot of fantasy opportunity in that late Feb./early March time. I'm not counting on it, but it's there.

Los Angeles Lakers

4-game weeks: 11
Minimum game weeks: 2
Playoff schedule: 3-4-3-2

Week 17 - teams also at minimum this week: none
Week 20 - teams also at minimum this week: ATL, HOU, PHX

NBA Champeens! I hear they got some guy Bryant and a Spaniard - Maximus I think. I was dead wrong last year, thinking that Gasol would shrink next to Bynum. I'd like to think that both would do well, but that shouldn't be the case. Could this be the year that their lack of point guardiness comes up to bite them? Maybe not, but the PG spot on the Lake Show is nigh worthless for fantasy. Man, I would have loved Ariza on this team. Artest? Good luck with that. He'll score and all, but I won't be surprised to see a few 4-11's from the field with 4 TO's, and that's really not going to help you too much.

Anyway, the two minimum game weeks for the Lakers come right after the All-Star break. Right before the break, they have 4-game weeks in weeks 10, 11, 13, 14, and 15. They should be rolling through their schedule then, so if you have one of their big fellas on your roster, ride them out until they play a game in Jerrah Jones's cavern. I'd keep an eye out for Farmar, Walton, and maybe even the Machine, just in case someone gets hurt (cough, Bynum) or something.

Phoenix

4-game weeks: 11
Minimum game weeks: 2
Playoff schedule: 3-4-3-2

Week 16 (All-Star week) - teams also at minimum this week: BOS, HOU, IND, MEM, NYK, OKC, TOR
Week 20 - teams also at minimum this week: ATL, HOU, LAL

Now here's a team you can wrap yourself up in fantasy-wise. A few guys in the top half of the draft (Amar'e, Nash, Richardson), guys who can fill out needs in your roster (Hill, Barbosa), and guys to watch out for in case something crazy happens (Frye, Dudley, Lopez). This team's a shell of its 2005 self, but still not one you'd want to play on the second game of back to back roadies.

Phoenix has a pretty nice schedule for H2H this year (after last year's 1 game week during Christmas - who let that happen?). Their minimum game weeks shouldn't do much damage, as one occurs during All-Star week. They have two runs on either side of the break of 4-gamers three weeks in a row, weeks 12-14 and weeks 17-19. And while their playoff schedule doesn't jump out at you, keep in mind that the first week of the playoffs (week 22), they have 3 games, but those three games are @Golden State, New York, and @ Minnesota. At the Suns pace, that can be better than a lot of 4-game weeks.

(Here's a good a time as any to say it. I have been basing playoff schedule according to how Yahoo! has always done it - 1st round week 22, semis week 23, finals combination of weeks 24 and 25. Well, now Yahoo! has gotten a little wise and you can have a li'l more flexibility in that playoff schedule. I know a lot of leagues won't change, but make sure you know when your playoffs are. Because I believe know is two-fifths or up to half of the battle.)

Sacramento

4-game weeks: 10
Minimum game weeks: 1
Playoff schedule: 4-3-3-2

Week 3 - teams also at minimum this week: IND, MIL, WAS

Screw it, I've almost had enough of these. The Kings roster is quite pre-AI Memphisian in that you've got a lot of guys who can do things for your fantasy squad, but in real life they suck. Kevin Martin screwed over a lot of people last year by getting hurt - don't do it again or someone will go out there and .. hurt you. Spencer Hawes will be taken in your draft, but no one will say, "Whoa, a little early for that!" nor "He was still on the board?" because he will be taken exactly where he should and may even win a week or two for you. Tyreke Evans is going to do some things on the court this year (who else will they play, Beno Udrih?) and I like him more than a lot of rookies that people will reach on. And if you don't do it on draft day, sometime soon keep an eye on Jason Thompson and Francisco Garcia. Garcia is the type of guy who can win you your league with all the stuff he can do if minutes are available, which they should be in Sac-town. And is there a food that Sacramento is famous for? Because if there is, Sean May will probably eat it. A lot of it.

The Kings have one minimum game week early, and other than that, 4 game weeks are spread out like New Jersey's so you never get a good run of those weeks. Like New Jersey, they will be gunning to get 250 out of 1,001 combinations of 14 ping pong balls. It's a shame that right now, the #1 pick is projected to be a point guard. Maybe that would work with Evans. The key to this season will be injuries. We know they will be teh suck, but if a couple of guys go down, someone could get a boatload of minutes and put up really good numbers, maybe Garcia, Thompson, or who knows.

Anyway, the point of this exercise was to look at the schedules of teams at some point in the draft season to look at what you are getting into, so you don't have crappy schedules jump up at you. I don't know about you, but Imma itchin' to draft!

09/10 Schedules - Northwest Division

2009-09-07T17:25:00.000-07:00

Hey, Boozer can read! He can really read the fine print of his contracts, too. For now, Carlos is in the Northwest Division, with such classics as Denver, Portland, and team that used to play in Seattle and won a title in the 70's. Everyone's clearly chasing the Lakers and Spurs, but each one has their own pieces for fantasy purposes.

Denver

4-game weeks: 9
Minimum game weeks: 0
Playoff schedule: 4-3-3-2

Minimum game weeks:
None

Well looky here! Denver has this year's flat as a board schedule. What does that mean? Well, it means you should never have to take out someone because they play a 2 game week. With guys like Carmelo and Chauncey, you can set them in you lineup then not need to move them all year, like a rotisserie chicken. (RIP, Ron Popeil. What, he's alive? Why yes, with all of those products and infomercials, his legacy will live on for years. Oh, he's not actually dead yet? Carry on then.) You want guys on this squad who can churn out points, rebounds, assists, whatever they do well. As long as he keeps being healthy, Nene could thrive in a schedule like this. Of course, streaky guys (JR Smith) and one-cat wonders (Birdman) only get a few chances to really go over the top for you in 4-game weeks. The playoff schedule won't set off any fireworks, but there should be another fight for seeding like last season, so don't expect any of the Nuggets' top players to sit on the shelf come fantasy playoff time.

Minnesota

4-game weeks: 12
Minimum game weeks: 3
Playoff schedule: 4-3-3-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 4 - teams also at minimum this week: none
Week 15 - teams also at minimum this week: none
Week 19 - teams also at minimum this week: none

I can't really kill new GM David Kahn's work so far because even though Ricky Rubio no esta en la casa del Target, they just have to stay under the luxury tax line (and the salary cap line if necessary), collect pieces with moderate expiring contracts so they can be moved at some point, hope to hit on one or two 1st round draft picks by collecting multiple ones, and get a good coach to play at a good enough pace to keep fans excited. Heck, the Hawks did only one of those things 4+ years ago and they're in decent shape now. The Wolves can be bad to not-great the next couple of years; they owe the Clippers a #1 pick from the Jaric trade and it's protected top 10 the next 2 years, unprotected afterward - they might as well pounce for the 2011-2012 season to make that pick nigh worthless. Doesn't matter to me, I'm a 2 hr. plus Northwestern/Delta flight away from being effected. But at least I can see some sort of long range plan, and if I ever decide to don the blue n' green, I won't feel so bad.

Anyway, regarding the Wolves for fantasy - Al Jefferson, top 15 player, 20/10, yada yada yada. Kevin Love rebounds the ball, but only after drinking a special serum to control his fatness. New pickup Ramon Sessions should have plenty of people to dish it too, but of course he could use a team with a strong shot blocking presence behind him to take care of his lack of D (because then he would be Damon Sessions, and where's the flair in that?). I like Ryan Gomes and he would not be a bad late round/free agent pickup for the right week - they do have 12 4-gamers. I rate Johnny Flynn as a hold right now, well aware that someone in my league will like rookies more than I, scoop him up, and might get lucky with a decent PG. I'll take my chances. Enjoy the deep league you are in if you are grabbing Darius Songaila, and if something were to happen to Jefferson, he's not a bad pickup (see his percentages). And either my year is shot or I'm in a deep 20 team Yahoo league (where my year is still likely shot) if I'm picking up Brian Cardinal.

Now actually, the thing I just realized while typing this up 20 minutes ago: Minnesota has 3 2-game weeks (not counting AS and final season weeks), and in all 3 cases, they are the only team playing 2 games that week. Week 19 is a serious shot because 19 teams play 4 games that week. This is a major bummer if you picked Jefferson high as the anchor for your big-ball team. (No one else on Minny is worth the hassle of debating on sitting them in a 2 game week.) You need to have a reasonably high level big to back Jefferson up in those weeks, especially in week 19.
Here are the teams playing 4 games in week 19:

ATL, BOS, CHA, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MEM, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHX, SAC.

Here are the teams playing 4 games in week 4 (13 teams total) and 19:

ATL, CHA, CLE, DET, HOU, IND, OKC, ORL

Here are the teams playing 4 games in week 15 (13 teams total) and 19:

ATL, BOS, DEN, LAL, MEM, SAC

The one team to play 4 game weeks while Minnesota plays 2's is Atlanta. For this reason, Al Horford needs to be on your radar if you take Al Jefferson in round 1. Let's say you take Al with the 10th pick, a perfectly fine spot. Your next pick is 15th; future picks are 34th, 39th, 58th, 63rd, and 82nd. 15, 34, and 39 are too high. You can maybe go 58th, but 63rd might be okay. Right now, on ESPN.com, he's ranked at an average of 77 from the rankings of Brian McKitish, Erik Karabell, and Keith Lipscomb (McKitish has him 64th, not in top 85 of Karabell and Lipscomb - sorry he doesn't shoot enough 3's for you guys). GMTR has him ranked 51st in a 9 cat league, so some out there see a good year for him (while healthy).

I'd say the chances of Horford being available for you at 58 are about 40-60%; the number of centers you have to play will certainly be a factor. Also, where you take Al Jefferson in round 1/2 is a factor as well. You'll have a better opportunity at Horford if you pick Al 8th instead of in the 12/13 snake spot. Horford and Jefferson should both be PF/C's. If you take another center (and a scorer at that) between rounds 1 and 5, you can seriously lock in a big ball strategy. If you want to go in another non-big-ball direction with Jefferson, you'll need to take a hard look at Josh Smith and Joe Johnson, too. There, fantasy tips regarding Minnesota/Al Jefferson you can use in your H2H league. You're welcome.

Oklahoma City

4-game weeks: 11
Minimum game weeks: 2
Playoff schedule: 4-4-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 6 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC, NOH, ORL, POR, SAS
Week 16 (All-Star week) - teams also at minimum this week: BOS, HOU, IND, MEM, NYK, PHX, TOR

The Thunder have a player named Kevin Durant. He is a good player. You should draft him if you get the chance. Don't just listen to me, here are his stats, see for yourself.

Oklahoma City has a good little schedule - 4 game weeks are spread out throughout the year, their minimum game weeks won't kill you, and they shouldn't have to worry about resting players for the playoffs just yet. They are young enough that the players you want to see get some exposure are already playing. The Thunder were a average-to-deep league goldmine last year, as they had a lot of players who were worth drafting or picking up at some point last year: Durant, Westbrook, Green, Sefolosha, Weaver, Collison, Krstic, Wilcox. Add in James Harden (and possibly Etan Thomas) to the mix this year, and you could have plenty of guys on the squad who have the opportunity to get 25+ mpg and fantasy relevance. Shaun Livingston isn't on that list yet, but you never know.

Right now, OKC is the only team under the salary cap, which could be important come February as teams scramble to get under the luxury tax number. Their roster may be slightly different after the All Star break, and more likely someone else's roster will be altered by having traded with Oklahoma City. The Thunder won't take on any bad contracts, but they could get a free player or two this spring. Again, just something to watch out for with the Thunder later in the year, but Thunder blue should already be on the brain with their 4-4-4-2 playoff schedule.

Portland

4-game weeks: 12
Minimum game weeks: 3
Playoff schedule: 3-3-3-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 6 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC, NOH, OKC, ORL, SAS
Week 12 - teams also at minimum this week: NJN
Week 21 - teams also at minimum this week: DAL, ORL

Portland has 12 4-game weeks, four of them in the first five weeks of the season. They also have another stretch right before the All-Star break of four 4-gamers in five weeks. You'll get your money's worth Portland players this year. But if your trade deadline is in late Feb., that's when you may want to deal a little. They have a 2-gamer the week before the playoffs start, and it's a weak 3-3-3-2 after that.

As I mentioned with Orlando, Orlando's and Portland's schedules do not match up well at all. So if you get all down with B-Roy, Rashard Lewis ain't gonna work so well, especially with him playing just 72 games max.

Portland's schedule is frontloaded, so you're going to have to gamble that their playing rotation is settled some come draft time. Steve Blake isn't worth drafting in regular leagues, but Andre Miller is; Miller's value is likely going to be higher later in the year though, as a) Blake may not be there, and b) he will have wrested away a majority of the minutes. Oden may be worth something this year, as he'll have a year's amount of league play under his belt, and I assume that from May until now he hasn't fouled anyone. I wouldn't be afraid of drafting any Blazer or scooping one up early. Just don't look for Travis Outlaw on my playoff roster.

Utah

4-game weeks: 12
Minimum game weeks: 3
Playoff schedule: 4-3-3-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 1 - teams also at minimum this week: GSW, MIL
Week 13 - teams also at minimum this week: None

You draft Deron Williams real high, looking for assists right off the bat, and oof, you're stuck with a 2-game week 1. Suck it up, bee-yotch, you can have more than one point guard on your roster. Alright, if you're worried, you should be worried about week 13. Utah is the only team playing 2 games that week and 21 teams are playing 4 games. For safety sake, here are the teams that play 4 games in both week 1 and week 13:

LA Clippers, Portland Trail Blazers. That's it.

So if you have Deron Williams, I guess you could go for Andre Miller or Eric Gordon or Baron Davis. If you have Memo Okur, as your center, well, you won't get another one who shoots threes - maybe you could borrow Spencer Hawes for week 13. If you have Millsap or Boozer, they can sit on your bench for a week or two. If you have Ronnie Brewer, well then, your plan to grab steals every week may have taken a hit.

The Jazz have 6 guys on their squad who are useful on standard fantasy squads. Their schedule really shouldn't dictate too much on that, but the big part of their schedule is right after the All Star break, where 5 of the next 6 weeks are 4-gamers. Who knows, the Millsap/Boozer conundrum may have been solved by then due to trade or injury or swine flu.

Thus endeth the Northwest Division. Stay tuned for the last division, the Pacific. Some of those teams are pretty good, like the Lakers. They wear purple and gold.

09/10 Schedules - Southwest Division

2009-09-01T19:26:00.001-07:00

Timmy, why do I feel that come late in the season, you'll be reading a newspaper on the sidelines, a la Willie Beamen in "Any Given Sunday"? (Go Albuquerque!) In the off-season, though, the Spurs and other divisions made moves to make themselves better; they added Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess. Dallas got the Matrix and locked down Kidd for three whole years - and got Drew Gooden! Houston swapped Artest for Ariza and decided to do away with the feeling they would get in February of "Man, we're going good, hope Yao doesn't get hurt." New Orleans got Okafor for Chandler which is OK I guess, but (channeling sportsguy33) anytime you get a chance to trade one of your starters for a 2nd round pick seven years from now, you do it. (But let's not congratulate ourselves too much, that pick is conditional.) And Memphis made deals to get other teams under the luxury tax - aren't they team players!

On to the schedules!

Dallas

4-game weeks: 10
Minimum game weeks: 1
Playoff schedule: 4-4-3-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 21 - teams also at minimum this week: ORL, POR

Dallas's schedule has a few good stretches - weeks 3-6 where they play 15 games, and weeks 17, 18, and 19 where they have 4 games each. You can't complain about their fantasy playoff setup either. It lays out pretty nicely if you take Dirk in round 1, and Jason Kidd with his triple-double potential can be pretty solid since they aren't stuck with a lot of 2 game weeks. It's a veteran team, so don't expect any sleepers to jump out and show themselves from the free agent pool. Marion had a better season in retrospect last year, and likely will be drafted in a better spot than round 1. Erick Dampier is online banking now and will be logging in every 15th of the month to see if his paycheck cleared. I hope Josh Howard can do a few more things this year, but I would not be surprised if he isn't moved come February since his nearly $12M salary next year is on a team option (good agent work - I hope he's got a trade kicker in there).

That's really all I've got to say about the Mavs for now, but I will note that while searching on whether Josh Howard has a trade kicker (he doesn't) - yes, I'm easily sidetracked by salary nerdiness - I did see that Erick Dampier's contract for next year is unguaranteed if he does not make the All Star team or does not play in 2,100 minutes in his 70 highest minute games. ED has never played 2,100 minutes while wearing Mavericks blue. So Dampier and Howard provide Dallas with $21M of very movable contracts come trade deadline time. So while the team now is at least decently constructed, the March/April product can be quite different. And don't underestimate the power of movable contracts - the Lakers turned Kwame Brown's into 2 trips to the Finals. Thanks ShamSports!

Houston

4-game weeks: 11
Minimum game weeks: 2
Playoff schedule: 4-4-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 16 (AS week) - teams also at minimum this week: BOS, IND, MEM, NYK, OKC, PHX, TOR, WAS
Week 20 - teams also at minimum this week: ATL, LAL, PHX

People of the planet Houston! One has to wonder where the pure scoring is going to come from without the Yao and the McGrady. Stretches from Game 5 of the Finals aside, Ariza is not a scorer in the true sense. But he can still steal the ball, I'll give him that. Brooks looks like he'll be in the scoring point guard mold; we'll see how that goes for him. I like Scola - he'll be my consolation prize when I don't get David Lee in round 2 or 3 and I want the greasier haired Spanish speaking version of him a few rounds later.

But back to the schedule, and it's very interesting. Everything comes in bunches, 4-gamers weeks 3 + 4 and weeks 8 + 9, then all 3-gamers the month of January. By then, we should know who the Rockets are. After the 1-game All-Star week, Houston is seriously golden. By then, we could see McGrady, McGrady's expiring contract traded for something, the return of Yao, the one who becomes the dominant threat on offense, a return to relevance of Shane Battier, Aussie David Anderson, or the emergence of some of those 2nd round picks they bought this summer. This Rocket squad is going to be one to watch in Feb. and March.

Memphis

4-game weeks: 11
Minimum game weeks: 2
Playoff schedule: 3-3-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 9 - teams also at minimum this week: CHA, NJN, NOH, PHI, TOR
Week 16 (AS week) - teams also at minimum this week: BOS, HOU, IND, NYK, OKC, PHX, TOR, WAS

The reason I'll try to watch Memphis games on League Pass this year? No, not because they have good young talent. No, not because their opponents will have great nights against them. It's the local commercials, featuring the finest establishments of the Mid-South, like Carl Hogan Automotive in Columbus, MS (I gotta have DeLois Price).

Memphis has a decent enough schedule - their minimum game weeks have a lot of company, so you shouldn't get run over during these weeks. Their playoff sked ain't much to look at, but take out All-Star week and Memphis has 4-gamers from week 14 through week 20. And say what you will about Memphis, they do have fantasy relevant players. I had OJ Mayo for most of last year, and while I don't love him, I understand the lure - he played in every game and had double digit points in 75 of them. His long distance range is good and should only get better. He also likes getting to the line and converting once there. Good for you. You don't hear a lot about it, but Mike Conley was quite the fantasy player from early March 09 on - top 50 and approaching top 25 for that stretch. You fantasy players like n'est pas? Well he did that once last April, why not a few more times this year, preferably in the same week? I wouldn't say Rudy Gay was a bust last year, but we all know he can do better. I have a feeling that this summer of 2010 could be the wrong year to be a restricted free agent, but good luck to you anyways. Gasol the younger was good some games, great others, blech in still others. I wouldn't complain too much if he was my 2nd Center in a must have 2 C's league (I'd like him even better as a third C / Util in such a league for a big ball team and to screw someone else over). And Z-Bo's there! I think he got to Memphis a few years too late because the strip club scene in Memphis isn't as strong as it was 6-10 years ago. Or so I hear. But if anyone can score and rebound, at nudie bars or in arenas near a large river, it's Zach Randolph.

So no, this squad doesn't need AI to make it a fun team to watch, fantasy-wise.

New Orleans

4-game weeks: 13
Minimum game weeks: 4
Playoff schedule: 3-4-3-1

Minimum game weeks:
Week 5 - teams also at minimum this week: CHI
Week 6 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC, OKC, ORL, POR, SAS
Week 9 - teams also at minimum this week: CHA, MEM, NJN, PHI, TOR
Week 25 (last week of season, combined with week before) - teams also at minimum this week: CLE

Last year's Hornets schedule was strongly backloaded, with a lot of 4-gamers around the clubhouse turn. This year? What a hot mess. On the plus side, they have the most 4 game weeks of any team in the league, 13, same as New York. They have nice stretches of those games early on: weeks 2-4 and weeks 11-15. But they have 2-gamers back to back in weeks 5 and 6. The week 5 one is crippling, as only 1 other team (Chicago) has the same sitch, and 14 teams have 4 game weeks at that time. Week 6 is not so treacherous. The playoffs are treacherous - NO plays only 4 games in your finals week, while everyone else plays 5 or 6.

What does this mean for your fantasy team? Well, I like it for Chris Paul - he's almost schedule proof, as his counting stat strengths, assists and steals, can be hard to get, and if he gives you 24 assists and 5 steals in a 2-game week, that's almost as good if not better than your replacement 4-gamer. 2-game weeks hurt the guys like David West who excel in points and rebounds and percentages. The Hornets aren't deep fantasy-wise for your standard 10-13 round leagues- Paul, West, Okafor; maybe Posey and Wright. You can get by with West or Okafor or Wright on your bench for a couple of weeks. Let's see about supporting Paul, looking at who plays max games in weeks 5 and 6: Dallas, Milwaukee, New York, and Toronto.

Let's eliminate Milwaukee - they have no one you'd take at 24 or 25 (12 team league, you have pick #1 and take Paul) or 48/49 for that matter. Dallas - you aren't getting Dirk, but Terry, Marion, and Kidd could certainly help in the next few rounds. New York - you'd have to take a good look at David Lee, then maybe Al Harrington. Toronto - you're not getting Bosh, but I'd put Calderon on my squad any day of the week (preferably Sunday night when lineups lock for the week ahead).

Now you want to take care of your playoff finals, since you will be in the finals, right? Who plays 6 games in the last 2 weeks?

Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Golden State, Houston, Memphis, Milwaukee, New York, Oklahoma City, Philadelphia, San Antonio, Toronto, Washington.

As you can see, you don't need to go out of your way to draft Paul backup, and you shouldn't 5 months away from the playoffs. Just keep it in mind as the All-Star Game approaches.

San Antonio

4-game weeks: 11
Minimum game weeks: 2
Playoff schedule: 4-4-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 2 - teams also at minimum this week: none
Week 6 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC, NOH, OKC, ORL, POR

San Antone starts the year game-wise off slow. Week 2, they have the only 2 game week, and half the league plays 4. San Antonio is loaded at the end, finishing the year with max games from weeks 20 through 25: 4-4-4-4-4-2. If you remember last year, and if you had Duncan on your squad, you do, Coach Pop rested Duncan and/or Parker and/or Ginobli in instances when they had back to back games late in the year. Gee, ya think he'll still do that now that they all are a year older? Maybe. That's why I'm leery of having Duncan on my squad as a high pick this year. 2nd or 3rd round? No, I need a guy I can count on or get value back in a trade come February. Maybe 4th or 5th. Parker? I'll still take him, but at an appropriate time and if I have a team punting 3's and such. Ginobli? Meh.

Does that mean Spurs aren't worth having? Nosiree. Late in the year, I'm looking at guys who will get an uptick late in the year with increased PT, mainly for standard or deep leagues. Antonio McDyess, George Hill, and Roger Mason could all look better in the 2nd half than on draft day. And no, I haven't forgotten about Richard Jefferson. He won't put up numbers like last year, but I can't severely downgrade him, just because I can't see him being rested in the latter months. The Spurs, like the Rockets, need to be watched in the closing weeks.

Thus endth the Southwest Division. Coming next, the ever exciting Northwest Division - they have a team in Utah!

And in honor of the Four Fingers of Fantasy Guide coming out today on Give Me The Rock, here's a cheerleader photo. Dance!

09/10 Schedules - Central Division

2009-08-27T19:14:00.000-07:00

Yeah, take a good look, Bron-Bron. This division is yours for the taking. "Oh The Places You'll Go", huh? Was one of those places the locker room to clean out your stuff around Memorial Day? And Mr. James, shake a guy's hand after a hard-fought series; at the very least it's a chance to give the stinkpalm. Hey, did you know that Shaq is on your team now? Big tall guy, talks low, thinks he's real funny. Pass it to him a couple of times tonight - better yet past it to Mo and tell him to pass it to him. That would help things out a bit on this end. Onto the division del Central!

Chicago

4-game weeks: 10
Minimum game weeks: 1
Playoff schedule: 4-3-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 5 - teams also at minimum this week: NOH

You know, the NBA playoffs the last few years have presented some memorable 1st round series - Dallas/Golden State in 06, Boston/Atlanta in 08, and Boston/Chicago 09. All of the lower seeds in those made the average fan say, "Hey, they may be onto something." (Well, maybe not Atlanta.) Us fantasy guys are usually ahead of the curve, so we knew about Golden State, knew Atlanta had plenty of solid players even when they sucked, and knew Chicago had some talented if not frustrating stat guys. Everyone has picked up and dropped Tyrus Thomas at least once. Someone in your league jumped on Salmons right after he was traded. Derrick Rose didn't really come on until the last month of the season, and then bam! big games against the Celts. Someone will pounce on him a hair too early - me, I kinda like PG's who can shoot 3's, swipe it, and hit their freebies, and if they aren't like that, Tony Parker, Rondo, and Miller are better options. That's right now, but Rose is in that grouping.

Anyway, the Bulls schedule is weak for fantasy weeks. They play only 14 games the first 4 weeks and is fairly open the first half of the season. Their only really good stretch is the month of February, where they play a maximum 4-2-4-4. I'd keep reading the rumor reports around that time. They made a deal last season, and Brad Miller has a $12M expiring contract; if they want to give up cap space next summer, they can add a nice piece if they need to. Hopefully, Luol Deng is healthy in Feb, because if I had to have any Bulls then, I'd like guys with little chance of being traded, like Deng and his contract. Also, their fantasy playoff schedule is nice, so that can come in handy, especially if decent players get waived in your league, like a John Salmons (who shouldn't get waived, but silly things happen at the end of the year by teams that are out of it).

Cleveland

4-game weeks: 10
Minimum game weeks: 1 (last week of season, 1 game)
Playoff schedule: 3-3-4-1

Minimum game weeks:
Week 25 - teams also at minimum this week: NOH

Cleveland is one of the few teams that have a mess of games up front - six 4-game weeks in November and December, including a bam! how ya like me now week 1 4-game spot. This is when you draft LeBron and get off to that early wire-to-wire lead. Since much of the value with the Cavs is early in the season, I tend to lean toward the guys who will be more of the sure things. LBJ, sure, Mo Williams - a nice PG if you're punting assists, and maybe Anderson Varejao in the later rounds if he fills a need. I can't trust anyone else. Definitely not Shaq or Ilgauskas (an injury to one or both would change things though). I would love Delonte West, Anthony Parker, and Jamario Moon all if they were on crappier teams. Minutes would be there and they wouldn't have to share. Damn you for being good, CLE!

Cleveland only has one game where it plays the minimum games. The good news is it's the last week of the season, and either you don't use it or it gets combined with the week before (which is a 4-gamer). So while you're never under the gun, you never get the chance to pounce. Besides LeBron (granted, he is a big one), Mo Williams, and maybe Delonte West, Cavs players won't be huge factors in shallow leagues, and at best, pieces in deeper leagues. (Hi Boobie!)

Detroit

4-game weeks: 10
Minimum game weeks: 1
Playoff schedule: 3-3-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 10 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC

Wow. Detroit got better this offseason. Or differenter. Fantasy ballers look at those pickups and say, "Really? They'll make your team better?" Real life NBA fans look at those pickups and say, "Really? They'll make your team better?" The difference - they won't have as much disdain in their voices after being pissed off at them for the last 3 plus years. The truth is, they aren't bad players, and depending on how you are drafting might be a fit for your team. Ben Gordon shot 45.5% last year, the 2nd time in his career he was over 45%. He'll make threes, score 20ish, and hopefully get close to 45% so as not to kill you in FG%. He played 36 minutes a game last year while starting - no guarantees he gets those minutes behind and around Rip Hamilton. Villanueva is a nice little piece who can score some, rebound some, and make a few threes. He might be the guy you want four rounds after saying, "Damn, I wish I got Antawn Jamison."

As for their schedule, they are another team who is not loaded with 4-gamers. They only play one 2-game min week, and in theory this shouldn't devastate you, since no one on their team is going to warrant a high enough draft pick where a min game week will hurt you. The strong part of their schedule is right after All-Star week and right before fantasy playoffs where they go 4-4-4-3-4. Depending on whether they are in the mix for EC spots 6-8 will determine whether the guys to go after at that time are Jason Maxiell, Chris Wilcox or Will Bynum and Austin Daye.

Say hello to Tayshaun Prince for me, since I won't be able to see him on my roster.

Indiana

4-game weeks: 12
minimum game weeks: 3 (1 during All Star week)
fantasy playoff schedule: 4-3-3-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 1 - teams also at minimum this week: GSW, MIL, UTA
Week 3 - teams also at minimum this week: MIL, SAC, WAS
Week 16 (AS week) - teams also at minimum this week: BOS, HOU, MEM, NYK, OKC, PHX, TOR, WAS

Right off the bat, Indiana starts off 2-3-2 - that's rough if you're counting on Danny Granger to be your first round stud. Also, in fantasy semis and finals, it goes 3-3-2 for Granger. I'd be a little worried about those first 3 weeks though, so it might help to counter that with your second round pick. Let's say it's a run of the mill 9-cat H2H league with 12 teams. No one's bat-shit insane, so the draft so far has been Paul, James, Wade, Durant, Bryant, Nowitzki. You take Granger at 7, decent pick, the earliest he can and should be picked. Your next pick is at 18, so preferably, you want someone who is playing big schedules (11 games) those first 3 weeks. Let's look:

Celtics: 4-4-3
Cavaliers: 4-3-3
Clippers: 4-3-4
T'wolves: 3-4-4
Hornets: 3-4-4
Suns: 3-4-4
Blazers: 4-3-4

Now figure out who will be off the board by then: Howard, Amar'e, D. Williams, Bosh, Jefferson, Pau Gasol. Brandon Roy would be a nice fit, but I'm not holding out hopes he's there. Steve Nash has a decent chance he's available at #18, as does Kevin Garnett. After that, it looks like your best Granger insurance is in later rounds, like a David West in round 3 or LaMarcus Aldridge in round 4 or 5. Also, the Clippers schedule matches up really well with the Pacers. besides being opposites in week 1 and 3, LAC also has a lot of 4 game weeks in the middle of the year, right when Indiana does, so if I get Granger or even Troy Murphy, I'm looking a little harder at Eric Gordon, Camby, Kaman, and Griffin.

Teams with just as bad schedules as Indiana in weeks 1-3 (9 or fewer games):

Bobcats: 3-3-3
Bulls: 3-3-3
Warriors: 2-3-4
Heat: 3-3-3
Bucks: 2-3-2
Kings: 3-4-2
Wizards: 3-4-2

Nobody on these teams is really in the draftable danger zone in round 2 for Granger (say, ranked 15-25) except Butler, G. Wallace. Keep an eye out in rounds 3-4 for guys on these teams - Arenas, Jamison, K. Martin, Monta Ellis, etc. And of course Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy.

Once you get past the first 3 weeks with Indiana, their sked is golden as they have eight 4-gamers through the end of January. So Granger and Troy Murphy will be nice then, as will a healthy Dunleavy. I wouldn't necessarily say TJ Ford, but if he's your cup of tea, go for it.

As I said above, the Clippers schedule matches up really well with Indiana's, with a lot of 4 gamers then. Also good ones are Cleveland, Minnesota, New Orleans, Toronto, and Washington.

Milwaukee

4-game weeks: 9
5-game weeks: 1
minimum game weeks: 2
fantasy playoff schedule: 4-4-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 1 - teams also at minimum this week: GSW, IND, UTA
Week 3 - teams also at minimum this week: IND, SAC, WAS

Well, at least their playoff schedule is nice. That said, who is going to be pulling in enough good numbers to do anything with that? Bogut will give you rebounds and FG%; that would be swell if there wasn't anyone else in the association who could do that. The problem is, many do. I can't imagine Michael Redd will be doing anything for the Bucks in April.

Here's the big thing about the Bucks sked: week 18 - the 5 game week. What a cruel joke that this is wasted on the Bucks. This week starts on Feb. 22. The trade deadline is Feb. 18th. I believe that the Bucks will try anything to shed Michael Redd (and his $18M player option for 2010-2011), so I can't guarantee that he'll do anything that week. Ridnour and Kurt Thomas, 2 guys I think could at least put up some #'s in 5 games, are expiring contract and thus are no locks to be wearing Bucks green (or red if it's alternate jersey night). So I say at this point, look at guys who will likely be on the roster through February: Ersan Ilysova, Bogut, Gadzuric, and my favorite, Luc Mbah A Moute. Brandon Jennings and Joe Alexander deserve looks, too, but their PT isn't going to magically appear on President's Day.

Really, I've got nothing else good to say about the Bucks. As my cousin, Vincent Gambini would say, "I'm finished with these guys."

Next, the Southwest Division, featuring the fine folks from San Antonio, Texas. You all probably root for a team from New York City. New York City?!?

09/10 Schedules - Southeast Division

2009-08-25T12:32:00.001-07:00

Don't just sit there playing games, Caron, start playing games!

This year's SE division has it all. A team that was 3 wins from an NBA title that kept the Polish Hammer. A team that has steadily improved its win total each of the last 4 seasons with a weak coach and has a bunch of fantasy viable players. A team with a reactivated agent. Super Cool Beas's team. And a team that occupies the space between tee times (now more bluey and less orangey!). Let's take a look at how their schedules come into play this year for fantasy.

Atlanta

4-game weeks: 10
Minimum game weeks: 1
Playoff schedule: 4-3-4-2

Week 20 - teams also at minimum this week: HOU, LAL, PHX

Atlanta has only two 4 game weeks in calendar 2009, with a stretch from week 5 through week 10 of 3 games a pop. Unless Coach Woodson wises up and doesn't have Joe Johnson among the league leaders in minutes, JJ can be quite good in the early season. Pop the hat off of Baby New Year and things get rolling for the Hawks. The Hawks have plenty of guys who want to score; with Crawford in town, there is going to be plenty of outside shooting, with him, JJ, Flip Murray, to a lesser extent than before Mike Bibby, and Jeebus help us Josh Smith. It was unbelievably great to see Marvin Williams shoot 3's. If he keeps up his natural progression and doesn't hurt his back, he'll be a nice SF to fill out your team when you picked PG's and PF/C's in the early rounds. I really like Al Horford, and the way this team runs its offense, he's a sneaky good assists guy for a big man. This team usually gets its injury bug around December, so it's nice that the schedule is spread out at this time. If you can target some guys in January to fill out your team, it will be a great time to trade for some Hawks.

Charlotte

4-game weeks: 10
Minimum game weeks: 1
Playoff schedule: 3-4-4-2

Week 9 - teams also at minimum this week: MEM, NJN, NOH, PHI, TOR

Charlotte is another slow starter: three 3-gamers, one 4-gamer, then three more 3-gamers. You can't really get on a Bobcat roll until March. Man, I just don't see a playoff team here. I never have and likely never will draft Raymond Felton - not even on autodraft, because he's the one guy I make sure to move down. I can't have a guy take that many shots shoot 41% at best. If you've built a big-ball team and need a PG in the middle rounds, you might be able to get by with it; his assists and steals are pretty good, maybe enough to back door those cats in a week (you've given up 3's, right?). His low FG% can be salvaged by a guy like Dwight Howard. Again, it's a way to go.

Crash is the only Bobbin'cat I'd think about taking in the early rounds; he might even be a good sell high candidate near your trade deadline. Tyson Chandler used to be a fave of mine and he's going to be a downgrade from Okafor. There are 3's guys like Augustin and Bell out there, but good gravy, this roster sucks. I'm rootin' for ya, Boris Diaw, but feel free to draft him late and drop him as soon as you see someone in the league doing well.

As presently constructed, I can't see this team making the playoffs. But if they're out of it by March, their schedule picks up and some of the young guys may pay off, like Gerald Henderson and Alexis Ajinca. Pay attention, junior fantasy hoopsters, that's your first mention of Ajinca in the realm of fantasy (this doesn't count). Don't hold your breath for mention #2.

Miami

4-game weeks: 10
Minimum game weeks: 1
Playoff schedule: 4-3-3-2

Week 7 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC, NYK, WAS

The meaty part of the schedule is from weeks 11 through 17 where Miami plays max games each week. That's when you want Heat players on your roster; the way you do that - get the 3rd overall pick. D-Wade is going to be the shizzle, but this team won't give him enough to fill out his fave five. I'm not going to pile on to Michael Beasley, so I'll just wait until we can say "Cool Beans" to Super Cool Beas. Jermaine O'Neal will be The-$23M-Expiring-Contract-of-Jermaine O'Neal. If you can hide a 3-point gunner on your roster, you could do worse than Daequan Cook. If you need a PG late on your big-ball team, I think Mario Chalmers is a better option than the above-mentioned Raymond Felton. Someone has to get rebounds on Miami, might as well be Udonis Haslem. And since Miami's schedule picks up starting Jan. 4th, I predict Dec. 30th as the day I try to get cute and pick him up for FG% and boards, then Jan. 7th for me to say, "What the deuce?!?"

Also, Yakhouba Diawara is on the roster. I submit that he is the worst player in the NBA for fantasy that might actually start games. The Heat would have to have a 7 game week for me to think about picking him up. Maybe that will happen in a lockout shortened 2011 season.

Orlando

4-game weeks: 11
Minimum game weeks: 2
Playoff schedule: 4-3-3-2

Week 6 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC, NOH, OKC, POR, SAS
Week 21 - teams also at minimum this week: DAL, POR

Orlando is one of the best and could be the best team in the league. It is also a team where it comes into play seriously. Their post AS Game schedule is lighter than others, and they very well could lock themselves into an Eastern Conference seed well before mid April, so it might be tough to have Vince on your roster then. D-12 is 1st or early 2nd round pick in H2H leagues; you know he's going to come out early and hard, especially with Rashard Lewis out the first 10 games.

Speaking of that, Orlando got really lucky with the schedule fantasy-wise. Their first 3 weeks are 3-4-3 - Lewis misses exactly 3 weeks. If they were scheduled 3-3-2, he's suspended into your 4th week. If they were scheduled 4-4-4, he's useless for 3 weeks plus you've lost him for 3 max game weeks. So he'll be ready to roll in week 4, and really I'll have no qualms drafting him in a head-to-head league.

The other big thing about Orlando's sked - the short All-Star week (16). Nine teams play only 1 game. Twenty teams play 2 games. Orlando plays 3. This can be a huge advantage if you have a couple of Magic starters on your roster. If you have Howard on your roster, he can win FG%, rebounds, and blocks all by himself, then you can gamble on steals and 3's. If you can counteract FT% and TO's, you can be gunning for a 7-2 / 8-1 this week. This week alone can make it worthwhile to have 2 Magicians on your roster. Milwaukee's 5 game week in late February may get more talk, but this is the most valuable team-week in the season for fantasy. Make sure to check your league rules, though. Some platforms can combine this week with the week before or after, effectively neutralizing this advantage. Yahoo! does not (unless it's an upgrade this year).

Orlando has plenty of big names this year, and they have 4 guys I wouldn't mind drafting to pay off the first half of the season - Howard, Lewis, Carter, and Nelson. And if something happens, I have no prob picking up whoever shines out of the Anderson, Barnes, Pietrus, Redick group.

Of note: Orlando and Portland really don't mesh schedulewise. Thus, I wouldn't pick a Magician and a Blazer in high rounds together, in this case Howard and Roy. I would put later round guys together, like Rudy Fernandez and Mickael Pietrus, or a mix like Howard and Oden. Again, don't screw up your draft, but keep it in mind.

Washington

4-game weeks: 12
Minimum game weeks: 3
Playoff schedule: 4-4-4-2

Week 3 - teams also at minimum this week: IND, MIL, SAC
Week 7 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC, MIA, NYK
Week 16 (AS week) - teams also at minimum this week: BOS, HOU, IND, MEM, NYK, OKC, PHX, TOR

Agent Zero is back! They've got Mike Miller! And Randy Foye! Coach of the Year (CBA) and league champion (CBA) Flip Saunders is running the show! Antawn Jamison is still doing things! No more gold shirts-black shorts! (sniff) Aren't you excited by the Wizards this year?!? Uh-huh, right.

I think the League Pass people will forgive you if you skip the Wizards-Bobcats tilts this season. That said, there are still some fantasy viable options wearing Wizards blue. Good luck drafting Gilbert Arenas this year - he'll be a nice high risk-high reward pick. Caron Butler has been killing you in roto the last couple of years, but when he's in the lineup, he's a serious top 3 rounds player. Jamison is an interesting player - a good small ball PF or big ball SF. I think a lot of people got burned by Mike Miller last year, but if he's on, he'll round out your lineup nicely and can fit into a variety of roster spots. The good thing about Randy Foye this year? He'll be playing and DeShawn Stevenson won't. His points will go down with the other gunners in the lineup, but he could be a nice sources of steals and threes in the later rounds. Brendan Haywood gives a hearty thank you to fantasy commissioners who make their leagues have 2 centers.

Schedule-wise, it's really backloaded for the Wizards, especially come playoff time. Hopefully by then you'll know if Butler and Arenas are hurt. Conversely, their early schedule is wafer thin. If you're shaky on Arenas, you can draft and hide him the first few weeks if you can.

That's it for the y'all division, up next, the rustbelt Central Division.

Looking over the new fall (and beyond) schedule

2009-08-19T18:21:00.001-07:00

I'm back, nerds!

Man, August is a rough time. It's Africa hot in Atlanta; the foosball hasn't started; back-to-school sales and what not. But the NBA schedule came out recently, and now's always a great chance to look at it for your H2H leagues (and to a much lesser extent, roto), even before you sort out your top 12.

So when the schedule first comes out, I look for a few things: 1) Are there any teams with a 5 game week (Milwaukee week 18 - I'll get to that) 2) Who has good "playoff" schedules, i.e., their schedule the last 4 weeks goes 4-4-4-2. This year, it's Houston, Milwaukee, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Toronto, and Washington. Just one more thing to consider for drafting purposes. It might give me an extra tick in the PRO column if I was choosing between, say Kevin Durant and Danny Granger. 3) I look to see which teams have the most 2 game weeks during normal play (not counting All-Star week and the last week of the season) and 1 game weeks in those weeks. New Orleans and New York each have 4 of the minimum game weeks. In a way, that sucks, but keep in mind that these teams must also have the most 4 game weeks - they each have 13. That's not going to change my mind on CP3 - he's #1 until he pops an Achilles in camp or finds where Julius Hodge is playing this summer and pops him in the jimmy again. But maybe I'll give an extra glance to Wilson Chandler, if not on draft day, then in advance of their hottest schedule stretch, which is just about from mid-February on.

Anyway, I'll be looking at team schedules, division by division, to gauge some strategies pre-draft, like playoff schedule, when 2-game weeks hit (so you don't have your top guys playing 2 games at the same time), and how schedule quirks hit the guys outside the first couple of rounds. Miami plays 2 games in a week, you're not benching Dwyane Wade, but Udonis Haslem's going to have a tough time cracking my lineup. Also, this is a purely integer-based analysis; a team playing 3 games in a week against GS, NY, and NJ might be better off than a team playing 4 games against SA, SA, BOS, and DET. But you'll have to delve into that closer to the zero hour.

First up, Atlantic Division teams...

Boston

4-game weeks: 10
minimum game weeks: 1 (All Star week)
fantasy playoff schedule: 4-3-4-2

Minimum game week:
Week 16 (all-star week/1 game) - teams also at minimum this week: HOU, IND, MEM, NYK, OKC, PHX, TOR. I wouldn't alter drafting too much based on this week, AS week is a crap shoot anyways.

Boston never has a 2 game week during a week with a full schedule, but the rub against them is the stretch from week 3 through week 13 where they play 3 games every week. While I think KG will be just fine and not have a Shawn Marion-in-2009-type-of-year, you don't get a huge push from him during a nearly 3 month stretch. The bulk of the Celts' 4-gamers are post AS, and they very well could be in locked in the third slot role, meaning the Big 3 could be the Big Not-Playing-Over-30-Minutes-a-Game 3. This kind of makes me like Rondo a little more. If he's playing at triple double level early in the season, that will be just fine during 3 game weeks. I'm going to keep an eye on Davis, Perkins, and Rasheed come All-Star time.

New Jersey

4-game weeks: 11
minimum game weeks: 2
fantasy playoff schedule: 4-4-3-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 9 - teams also at minimum this week: CHA, MEM, NOH, PHI, TOR
Week 12 - teams also at minimum this week: POR

New Jersey's schedule is fairly spread out - no huge stretches 4 games in a row, and it is neither front loaded nor back loaded with games in each part of the season. Devin Harris and Brook Lopez are the main guys to watch out for, and if you really like Courtney Lee, don't let the Nets schedule move him up or down in your draft. Same with Yi Jianlian. Basically, Jersey's schedule, like their team - meh.

New York

4-game weeks: 13
minimum game weeks: 4 (1 during All Star week)
fantasy playoff schedule: 2-4-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 7 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC, MIA, WAS
Week 11 - teams also at minimum this week: none
Week 16 (AS week) - teams also at minimum this week: BOS, HOU, IND, MEM, OKC, PHX, TOR
Week 22 (1st rd playoffs) - teams also at minimum this week: none

The Knicks have one of the most volatile schedules, but could turn out to be one of the sweetest. Week 11 (early January) they are the only team off, so unless you have the entire Knicks starting five on your roster (in which case you really love the Knicks and this decade has not been good for you - be like Spike and root for Kobe once in a while) you'll be in pretty good shape. The same goes for week 22, and it's even better if you're in the standard Yahoo-ey playoff format where 1st and 2nd places get 1st round byes. I'll take my chances in early February when the Knicks play 1 (against Sacramento - I peeked) and almost everyone else plays two - not a huge disadvantage in counting stats.

Those 13 4-game weeks are freakin' sweet though. I'm already driving the bus on the David Lee fan club victory tour, so really this changes nothing. I'm not the biggest Al Harrington fan, but going over his stats and his schedule makes me want to look at him further on draft day, especially if Yahoo thinks he played enough games at center for the Warriors last year so he can start on my small-ball team.

Wilson Chandler is the one to watch, especially if he can keep up the 1 three / 1 steal / 1 block per game average. His minutes and daily production can be volatile, but he put up some great numbers in the last 6 weeks of 2009. With this Knicks schedule, I would move him up one round where you would think to draft him, say from 7th to 6th. Nate Robinson - your guess is as good as mine. Krypto-Nate (Metallo?) is going to be just as frustrating this year as last, provided he signs something or plays for the qualifying a la Ben Gordon. I'd love to see Danilo Gallinari get some serious run - a) because he won't be hurt, and b) that should mean Jared Jeffries won't (God bless the Knicks if they ever trade him before Feb). Also, I'd like to like Duhon, since he's going to get some good assist numbers in the brothers D'Antoni system.But if they get Ramon Sessions any time before Feb. 2010, look out.

What about Darko? Well I guess someone in your league will draft him. Excelsior if you do. Let's say you have him on your roster mid-season as a throw-in to a trade. Hold him until just before the Knicks schedule picks up around mid-Jan., then release him. Hopefully, someone ahead of you in the waiver line will pick him up, thinking "Hey, Darko can give me blocks and rebounds." You move up one spot in the waiver order and that can help late in the season. That is how Darko will help you in fantasy hoops this season. You're welcome.

Of note: Eddy Curry is eligible to be drafted or picked up as a free agent at any time.

Philadelphia

4-game weeks: 10
minimum game weeks: 1
fantasy playoff schedule: 3-3-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 9 - teams also at minimum this week: CHA, MEM, NJN, NOH, TOR

Nothing jumps off the board with Philly's schedule. Andre Iguodala is going to be the main man there, and without a bunch of 2 game weeks on the sked, he should do nice things over the course of the year. I'm not sold on Louis Williams as the starting PG this season, so I'll let someone else jump on that grenade. One thing about him if you are lucky enough to get CP3 or Calderon - all three are only playing 2 games in week 9. Nothing to throw your whole draft out of whack, but something to keep in mind.

If healthy, Elton Brand will do Elton Brand things. He'll need to work on that "if healthy" part. I like Thaddeus Young this year - nice little jump in year 3. I've bought a timeshare in the "Don't Want Sam Dalembert Condominium Complex"; I want to see Marreese Speights get more PT. The thing is, the Sixers schedule doesn't have a lot of packs of 4 game weeks in a row. So you'll have to wait for a frontcourt injury or doghousing to pick him up and by then it could be too late. He's on the Watch List for now.

Toronto

4-game weeks: 11
minimum game weeks: 2 (1 during All Star week)
fantasy playoff schedule: 4-4-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 9 - teams also at minimum this week: CHA, MEM, NJN, NOH, PHI
Week 16 (AS week) - teams also at minimum this week: BOS, HOU, IND, MEM, NYK, OKC, PHX

Toronto has a nice and smooth schedule, with a great playoff docket and a stretch from weeks 3 through 8 where they play max 4 games. If you want to get off on a roll early, have all the Raps on your squad take two steps forward (not so fast, Marcus Banks). This could make Jarrett Jack more draftable than you thought, or at least an early free agent pickup. This schedule is great for Calderon and Bosh - not a lot of 2 game weeks and they'll do solid for you in the 3 game weeks, plus can be a great playoff duo, especially since the Raps will be jockeying for playoff position come March and April in real life.

I like this team - with its schedule and all of the guys getting major minutes not named Joey Graham can fill out yer lineup. You damn well better target Bargnani for your small ball team - heck, he's not a bad C for your mid-ball team. If this team starts out hot (depending on how fast they mesh all their new players) having a couple of Raptors would be, how you say? nice. Their strong season ending schedule make them must gets for playoff time, provided guys like Bargnani haven't drifted off to pansy-like 2007 form. It's a shame they have so many games early - not enough time to get max effect out of a guy like DeMar DeRozan to see how he can fit in.

Wait, I haven't mentioned Hedo Turkoglu yet. If I draft him, I'll see plenty of 3 for 14 nights with 4 TO's. If I don't, I'll go up against him when he drops a few 20-5-5 w/2 steals on me. Screw you, you berzerk Turk!

Up next - Southeast Division...

I was wr-, wro-, wr- ...

2009-02-15T14:36:00.000-08:00

Fonzie on Happy Days was many things - lover, mechanic, someone with a GED who eventually taught auto shop, shark jumping water skier, all while wearing a leather jacket. But he was loathe to admit he was wrong - couldn't even say the word. Well here is where I can be better than Fonzie (8 year old me would be so proud), I can admit things where I was wrong in fantasy basketball this year:

- I thought Pau Gasol would be a shadow of what he was in recent years and at the end of last year. Shame on me for doubting tall unshaven Spaniards. Of course, I did anticipate decent things from Marc Gasol.

- I saw big things from Jason Richardson this year. Oopsie. There's still time for redemption, and Phoenix's post AS break schedule is nice. But I would have loved to have tucked JR in my SG spot and let him sit there collecting rebounds and 20 point nights.

- I thought Terry Porter as coach of the Suns wouldn't have too much of an impact on Stoudemire and the Suns offense. Yeesh. Safe to say, the days of having 7 Suns on league rosters (even shallow leagues) are over for quite a while.

- I was worried about overdrafting on Danny Granger. That's a guy I could use. Real glad I got Dunleavy though. Go. Pacers.

- Someday I'm going to be right about the dropoff to come for Chauncey Billups. Age, dammit!

- I thought Chris Wilcox would do a few things in the OKC, nothing world stopping, but at least contract year worthy. C'mon, man, step it up. On the bright side, I love the Thunder for fantasy. I've had a bunch of Thunderballers on my rosters or my radar this year - Durant, Green, Westbrook, Collison, Krstic, the aforementioned Wilcox, Watson, and soon Sefalosha. Keep the dream alive, Weaver. Hey, Dreamweaver! Cassandra, schwing!

- I thought at some point, my PG situation would be so horrid, I'd have to pick up Rafer Alston. Thank you, points guards on my rosters.

- I thought that what Mike Miller is going to do now, he would have done all year. Thanks a lot, headband wearing tool! (no offense)

You know, there were probably a lot of other things I was wrong at this year. Let's just leave it at those for now.

Yay Kevin Durant!

2009-02-14T12:27:00.000-08:00

I saw that over at GMTR, they were giving out their mash notes for various NBA'ers. I figured I would give my splash of guy love to the dude who's making this season real fun for me, Kevin Wayne Durant (tall guy, plays in city where they usually host 1st and 2nd round NCAA tournament games, wears a blue jersey like a Knicks jersey you'd find at Marshall's).

KD was a target of mine this past fall. I know last December and January, he was dropped and picked up more times than a copy of USA Today that someone left at McDonalds. ROTY, sure, but there were plenty of horrible shots (leading to a FG% near 40) and TO's. He was getting a block and a steal a game, so if your team could handle the other things, he was still giving you 20 a night and really helping your FT%. Also, post All-Star Game last year, his FG% shot up as he was taking better shots, getting on the right side of 45%. This year, I was looking for the 20 point a night guys who were lights out from the line. Now this wasn't the best strategy this year (thanks a pantload, Martin and Dunleavy), but Durant is the perfect guy for that strategy, as he would get that steal and block per night and his 3pt shooting was bound to improve as he had a year under his belt at NBA distance.

Another thing I liked about Durant, fantasy-wise, was that he was SG eligible. At 6' 9" with some rebounding skills, that's especially useful, in an old Josh-Smith-on-Yahoo-of-the-last-few-years type of way. I always thought that PJ Carlesimo was a moronic coach for doing that. Now, LeBron and Kenny Smith last night were suggesting he is more of a 2 guard type. Maybe they're right, I'm sure they know more hoops than I could ever know, but if Durant is your 2, your 4 and 5 have to be pretty good - not be Chris Wilcox and Johan Petro. With Durant at 3, Jeff Green at 4, and Nick Collison at the 5, you can get away with Desmond Mason/Kyle Weaver at the 2. Hence, a better team. Anyway, PJ was around long enough where KD should be SG eligible next year. Thanks Coach!

Okay, so now I targeted Durant pre-draft. Where to pick him? His best case scenario would be at the low end of the top 50. I'm sure many people were going to stay away from him because they overdrafted him the previous year. I thought middle of round 6 would be a good spot for him, which is where I took him in the GMTR Mock Draft, pick #67. Where is he now? Clearly, there are not 66 players you'd take ahead of him. You might be able to take 6. He's going to be a first round pick next year - if he's not, you are getting a steal in round 2 or he's had a catastrophic Al Jefferson-ish injury.

Here are Basketball Monster Rankings for Durant in 9 categories, 8 cat non-TO leagues in parentheses:

Season - 10 (6)
last 60 days - 4 (3)
last month - 1 (1)
last 2 weeks - 6 (3)
last week - 2 (2)

Go check out his numbers for the year and some of his game logs in calendar 2009 - phenomenal. Getting first round value out of someone you drafted in round six - that's fantasy football stuff, not basketball. And next year, he'll be giving first round value in the first round.

One of the best things this year has been following Thunder games on Stattracker (because you sure aren't watching them on TV). Sure, the TO's add up, but his name is constantly in bold because he's always in the game (2nd in mpg behind Stephen Jackson). He's always scoring, and he gets to the line a ton. You'll rarely see zeroes in hustle categories. One Sunday this year, I was trailing in FG% by a decent margin. I would have had to have someone go complete nova, like 15/16 to win the category. Well KD started the game 9 for 9 and it got to the point where I was looking up the NBA record for most FG's in a game without a miss. (It's Wilt, at 18 for 18.) But when you get to the point where you're looking up NBA records while you're tracking someone's game, that's special. So thanks, Kevin, for being the shining diamond in my middle of the road season.

The Greatest Christmas Present Ever

2008-12-25T05:34:00.000-08:00

Yep, you guessed it, Frank Stallone.

Well just plug me in like I was Devin Harris

2008-12-01T12:45:00.000-08:00

Pre fantasy draft, I had my rankings like everyone else. Paul, Amare, LeBron, yadda yadda yadda, down to Eddy Curry. You had your point guards all laid out - CP3, Wade, Iverson, Deron Williams, Billups, Baron Davis, Nash, Calderon, Kidd, Roy, Andre Miller, Mo Williams. That's 12 Yahoo! point guard eligible players right there who were probably taken ahead of Devin Harris in your draft - 14 if you want to include Arenas and Ellis if your draft was held earlier. Personally, I was lukewarm to borderline warm on Harris this preseason. I liked him in the 5th/6th round area, and I certainly liked him better than a lot of the players taken around that time. For instance, here is the Give Me The Rock mock draft held in late Sept/early Oct. I had the 7th pick of the 6th round, and Devin Harris was fully on my short list. Alas and/or alack, he was taken with the 4th pick in the 6th round, so I was left with Kevin Durant (whom I still like). Look who was taken before him - Aldridge, Dalembert, Oden, Odom, Stojakovic, Jackson, and Bogut. Even in September, I liked Harris better than all of them.

I knew FG% would hover close to 50 (well, 48), and he's an 80% guy who, with his driving ability, would put him to the line a few times. Now, did I think he'd get to the charity stripe 12 times a night? Not so much. 6.4 apg is quite nice, tied for 11th in the association. Preseason, there was really only one guy you thought would catch passes for shots in the IZOD Center (don't forget to pop the collar, preferrably 4 times) - Half-Man, Half-a-mind-to-pull-up-with-a suspicious-ankle-tweak. But Brook Lopez is fairly competent on the offensive end, and some nights, Yi visualizes the people in opposite color jerseys are chairs (like Bobby Boucher in The Waterboy). The good thing in the Meadowlands is that the Nets are not "teh suck" this year, so they can be competitive up through March. Yay. Of course, if Vince gets traded, then the only thing left in Jersey is Harris, then he'll try too hard, FG% will go down, and who knows what will happen next. Not as much fun. We'll see how much Jay-Z et al. are gearing for the famed Summer of 2010 and hopeful move to the land of the Sweathogs. We can only dream in silhouette.

I'm sure many would say that now is a Sell High time on Harris. Personally, I'm in the Hold category. Not hold as in maybe he'll get better, but hold as in retain him to be one of your cornerstones. Right now, you're getting 2nd - close to 1st - round production out of a guy you drafted in the 5th or 6th round. That's how you win leagues, chief. Who will you trade him with, someone who is mildly disappointed in their 1st or 2nd round pick? Marion? West? A one-for-two deal? Think of why you drafted Harris. You let most of the top flight PG's go since you had built a big-type team with good FG% and better than average FT% - say you lucked into a top pick and got Amare, then came back around with another big in the West/Duncan realm. Well, with Harris' FG% and FT% and high volume, you're locked in there. And with Harris scoring 10 points more a game than you thought he would, that guy you took just for scoring is almost redundant. So if you picked up Ben Gordon or Richard Jefferson or Al Thornton or Kevin Durant or Corey Maggette, it's those guys who are expendable. Find the guy in your league who is low on points, you may be able to grab someone nice to help you in the counting categories, to help you with what you want (So What'cha Want?)

Beaten up - and bad

2008-11-24T11:40:00.001-08:00

This was a rough week in the Give Me The Rock Readers' League, as many things transpired agin' me, like Boozer getting hurt, Turkoglu deciding to crap the bed this week, and just all around sucking to the point of suckitude. All in all, a large but not insurmountable bump in the road. Just like in Million Dollar Baby, when Mo Cuishle got beaten up a little along the way to the title. I can't wait until the sequel, when Hilary Swank tries not to get soft in her title defense. C'mon Clint, find some crazy black lady with a Mohawk and a lot of jewelry to be her foil. Everyone wants to see how Maggie handles success.

Looking back, a bunch of things went wrong. My high volume shooters - Joe Johnson, Hedo Turkoglu, OJ Mayo (even Rudy Fernandez) all shot under 40%. My rebounders tweren't a-rebounding, and with FG% down, not enough 3's were made. The three weeks previous, I had won FT%, points, and steals. But a nifty harmonic convergence of injuries, illness, and games played disadvantage conspired to bite me on the ass. I salvaged a tie in TO's thanks to the late night Kings-Lakers game. That tie could salvage my season in March. I really hope it comes down to that.

Anyway, I've got a bad assists and blocks team, so I'll need to work on/completely punt them. The silver lining of the week - both Corey Maggette and David Lee gained an eligible position. Maggette is now a SG,SF,PF, and David Lee is a SF, PF, C. Really, I don't know how that happened, but I guess now if I wanted to do a blockbuster trade, I can open it up without regard to position. That's about it.

UPDATE: Oh, thanks to wikipedia, I just realized that Hilary Swank dies at the end of Million Dollar Baby. Curse you cable, for other things being on so I flipped onto something else before it ended. No offense, Clint, but a sequel to MDB would really suck and be kind of a downer. Like Weekend at Bernie's 2.

Clip and save for posterity!

2008-11-10T07:00:00.000-08:00

After 2 weeks in the Give Me The Rock Monster League (20 teams, 8 active players, 9 cats), I am in first place with a nearly insurmountable lead of 1-1/2 games with only 19 weeks left to play. I think my magic number is 169.

I wouldn't say it's been smoke and mirrors, but I have had David Lee and Nick Collison in my lineup the last 2 weeks and still won by a nice margin. Joe Johnson and Chris Bosh have been my cornerstones so far, with a pleasant surprise coming from Mickael Pietrus.

I've been mildly active on the waiver wire - not much out there with 200 people on rosters. I benched Nick Collison for this week, but he's worth holding onto if Chris Wilcox stays hurt for any length of time, just like the end of last year. I picked up Aaron Brooks, early during Thursday night's game with Portland. He was on my radar, and I knew that he had the potential for a big night. And last night his picture was in the boxscore on Yahoo - that means he's a superduperstar, right? He's on the bench right now, but if he ever becomes a starter, look out. He's pretty much a scorer right now, not much defense or passing. Not the best of attributes for a PG.

Anyway, here's my lineup for this week, locked and loaded:

PG - Joe Johnson (4 games)
SG - Mike Miller (3)
G - Mario Chalmers (4)
SF - Mickael Pietrus (4)
PF - Chris Bosh (3)
F - Marvin Williams (4)
C - David Lee (4)
U - Flip Murray (4)

Opponent - One Eyed Monster (Hi Jake!)
PG - Devin Harris (4)
SG - DeShawn Stevenson (2)
G - Derrick Rose (3)
SF - Danny Granger (4)
PF - Pau Gasol (3)
F - Emeka Okafor (3)
C - Brook Lopez (4)
U - Kendrick Perkins (4)

Well, I outgame him 30-27, but the key will be Devin Harris's ankle. If he can play the full compliment of games, that hurts me. He hasn't been big on assists or FG%, but free throws are very solid. He's playing 4 center eligibles, so he should win rebounding, but I'm not giving up FG% just yet. He's only got one true 3-point gunner in Stevenson, but only playing 2 games definitely helps. The 2 I'm really worried about are Gasol and Granger. Those are the money players, but I think Bosh and Johnson can cancel them out. I'm eyeing another 6-3 or 5-4 win, with wins in points, FT%,3's, and steals, losses in blocks, rebounds and turnovers, and with FG% and assists in play. Not a walk in the park, but this is a week where champions put these teams away, like the '06 Mavericks.

Aside from this, what's with all the ankle owies? Josh Smith, Tony Parker, Devin Harris, Kevin Martin, some other guys with less fantasy impact. Guys, tape it up - or is this your way of boosting the economy by trying to pump up Johnson & Johnson? Kirk Hinrich, thank you for being so bold as to give up your thumb, as opposed to a pedestrian ankle. I salute you.

Now that's an NBA night!

2008-11-06T11:04:00.000-08:00

Tony Parker did what Sammy Hagar could not and drove for 55. The only thing better would be if he could rap in French - oh wait, he can! Amare decided not to miss anywhere on the floor - the guy is going to be huge all year the 2nd game of Phoenix's back-to-backs as Shaq will need a hoagie break. LeBron do what LeBron do, filling up the sheet and torching Los Bulls. Tayshaun Prince is really going to piss me off this year. When I finally relent and acquire/pick him up, he'll throw out a few "2 pts, 1-4 FG, 3 reb" games. Boston won; you beat the Thunder by 13. Yay. Mario Chalmers stole the ball as many times as Ferris Bueller was absent. Charlotte lost in Larry Brown's not-so-triumphant return to NYC, but 6 Bobbin'-cats scored in double figures, so there may be some interesting things happening in Charlotte, fantasy-wise, not so much wins and losses-wise.

Atlanta didn't steal a win in New Orleans, they went out and grabbed it by the throat and wouldn't let go. 12-30 from way outside and most of them were good shots. This is going to be one dangerous little team. I don't know whether I love OJ Mayo shooting 19 times to Rudy Gay's 12 or whether I hate it. I'm just glad Marc Gasol didn't go off again because he's sitting on my bench this week. Is there a reason why Steve Blake is getting 30+ minutes a night in Portland? Some decent numbers last night, I'll give him that. I'm kinda rooting for him to be on NBA rosters for the next 8 years so he can be this generation's John Crotty. DeMarcus Nelson may be this generation's Marc Iavaroni - start, play 6 minutes, then sit on the pine (excuse me, padded chairs that have the "NBA Cares" logo on them) for the rest of the night. Or maybe it's an elaborate Don Nelson hazing ritual.

Man, I love these NBA Wednesdays where almost everyone plays and your fantasy scoreboard is active all night. Let's do it again Friday, we'll meet Stu for NBA Shootaround. You know, flip side of pillow, butter ... roll, etc.

I've been Millsapped!

2008-11-04T13:13:00.000-08:00

millsap, verb (millsapping, millsapped) 1. In fantasy basketball, to disregard a bench player, thinking his value will be minimal, and in turn have that player's shizznit blow up. 2. In fantasy basketball, to play against an opponent by picking up a bench player on a team playing 4 games in a week, then having that player put up gaudy numbers.
"I saw that Houston was playing 4 games this week against some weak competition, so I picked up Carl Landry and totally millsapped Johnny's team."

I totally undersold Paul Millsap the other night. Now please back it up and don't come with a 2 point, 4 foul game next. Again, it's a shame Utah is not dumb, because if this guy was in Charlotte, he'd be way up in various big boards.

If I had some roster space, I might stash Millsap on my bench until late March when Utah has their 5 game week, then do some serious millsapping. Heck, 2nd Round Reach in the GMTR Monster League is millsapping someone RAT NOW!

Cheikh Samb traded - fantasy impact

2008-11-03T18:24:00.000-08:00

Cheikh Samb has been traded from Detroit to Denver, with a few of players thrown in to make things work out for NBA salary cap purposes ( a former Knick, a former Timberwolf, and a former Georgetown Hoya). The African nation of Senegal ... rejoices? mourns? goes about what they normally do in Senegal?

The one time Fort Wayne Mad Ant (about to be Colorado 14er? (fingers crossed)) for some reason had not got a lot of playing time in Detroit. It's like they had 5 all-stars in front of him or something. Here's what Rotoworld had to say about the Samb deal:

Big man Cheick Samb was traded to the Nuggets in the Allen Iverson deal on Monday.

He has some talent and has played well in the D-League, but he's not like to be worth owning in fantasy leagues this season.

Well, I guess that's that.

Very, very short term, if you had Chauncey this week in a locked weekly H2H league, you thought you'd be getting 4 games of Mr. Big Shot's big shots, but that ain't happening now. If Tayshaun Prince were to get a lot of shots, it would have been tonight. Eventually, the Pistons rotation will get figured out, and once it does, you could see a little rise in Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell. If you were in a deep league and had McDyess, you might as well drop him, since he'll be bought out. And if he really only wants to play for the Pistons, he won't be around until after you've opened a few windows on your advent calendar.

Godspeed, Cheikh Samb

A look ahead, week 2

2008-11-02T10:38:00.000-08:00

Week 1 is nearly in the books, save for a couple of games. Personally, I like having a Knick or a Raptor on my team, because they like to those noon Sunday games once the NFL schedule goes by. Also, those Pacific division teams like those Sunday night games, so sometimes your week hangs in the balance because you need Stephen Jackson to throw the ball into the fourth row a few times. It's been known to happen.

Anyway, week 2 is coming, and there hasn't been anything earth shattering about week 1, except if you had Tyson Chandler and Baron Davis active, which was kind of a pisser. And special thanks to the guys I matched up against the the GMTR Reader and GMTR Monster league for keeping Carmelo Anthony active even though he was out 2 games for sauce + vroom-vroom. If only he didn't get 11 pts. in the 4th quarter Saturday night, it would have been perfect.

Looking back, based on Basketball Monster numbers, Chris Paul is the number 1 rated player so far, to be expected. Greg Oden is dead last, only a few spots behind the aforementioned Carmelo. Quit smiling, JJ Redick you're not too much better. Go write a poem. And the Pistons need to hurry up and play some more games, because right now Walter Herrmann is a top 20 player.

Forward, this is the first real week, as plenty of teams have 4 teamers, as opposed to the crappy Bucks, who may have wanted you to play Luke Ridnour as your PG. The Lakers are the only team that plays 2 games, maybe that will help all those Kobe opponents. Thank Jobu I don't have any real Lakers in my lineups, because that thing may not shake out for a while, and I don't want to have to sort through it in week 2.

Teams that play 4 - Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Golden State, Houston, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis, Phoenix, Sacramento, and Utah. Here are guys who are on those teams that you think will be good plays because they have the full game complement, but will probably just piss you off:

Boston - the poster boy for this, Ray Allen.

Charlotte - Raymond Felton. Not on my watch.

Chicago - Tyrus Thomas. Damn, those blocks are appealing. Everything else, not so much. That Lamarcus Aldridge draft day trade is looking mighty smooth, Mr. Paxson. Drew Gooden will confound me again this year. He could be a non-express bus this year, a lot of pickups and dropoffs.

Cleveland - Anderson Varejao. He's on my watch list, as he'll be on the floor for the Cavs in crunch time. Cleveland needs a few more overtimes to convince me.

Dallas - Desagana Diop/Eric Dampier. Are fouls a category in your league?

Detroit - Tayshaun Prince. Every time he puts up a twenty point game, he'll come back with a 2 point game. In head-to-head leagues, I call him Roster Poison. A friend of mine who went to Kentucky used to call him Dijon, like the mustard. She probably still does. Tayshaun is like dijon mustard when it comes to a burger. It would not be your first mustard choice, and if you overdo it, it ruins the experience. Of course, if you mix it with some honey, you can have a nice chicken finger dipping sauce. Where am I going with this? I sometimes like dijon mustard, and I usually don't like Tayshaun in head to head. I'm done.

Golden State - Demarcus Nelson. Nice little story, but there's probably a reason he was undrafted. Of course, Charlotte drafted Alexis Ajinca, so maybe there isn't a reason. I've watched a ton of Duke games over the last 2 decades, and he is probably one of the least inspiring players in my memory. In his early years there, he seemed to always be good for 1 or 2 offensive fouls a game. He'll be jerked around by Nellie soon. Al Harrington, Kelenna Azubuike, tell him how it is.

Houston - Aaron Brooks. I'm starting to like this guy. I'm not one to wish ill will on anyone, but if a high ankle sprain were to happen to Skip To My Lou sometime soon, I'd like to see what would happen if he had plenty of rest (and soup, maybe a nice tomato basil).

Los Angeles Clippers - Al Thornton. I've got him on a couple rosters. Maybe it's the Italian in me, but he's going to give me the agita like I've eaten to much pasta e fagioli.

Memphis - Darrell Arthur. Nice to see you put up results when they decide to give you the start. Darko's another candidate for your 4 gamer headache as well.

Phoenix - Leandro Barbosa. Holy crap, he had a JJ Redick like week. I don't think this is what people were expecting when they thought to themselves in round 9 of their drafts, "I need a PG and some guy to hit threes."

Sacramento - Beno Udrih. Everybody who stayed away from him on draft day, remember that feeling.

Utah - Carlos Boozer. 20 and 10 - like he'll keep that up all year. No, I mean Paul Millsap. Boy, if they ever traded this guy to Charlotte. It's a shame that Utah is not dumb and Charlotte is not bright.

Oh well, off to watch some Bucks-Knicks on NBA TV. Who's genius idea was it to make the numbers so small on the scorebox in the bottom left corner? I'm in Atlanta, maybe I'll knock on their door.

Enjoy it now, Queen City

2008-10-30T13:07:00.000-07:00

Southeast Division:
Charlotte 0-0
Orlando 0-1

With the same number of wins and losses, Charlotte could compete for the 8th seed.

Good luck tonight - we'll see how much Bron-Bron goes off on his 2004 Olympic coach. And maybe we'll get our first glimpse at what to make of the Charlotte roster. Richardson should be okay, I'm not and never will be a Felton fan, and we can see if Matt Carroll can be a back door three pointer play in your deeper leagues. Also, we'll get to see how many games Okafor plays until his back gives out or either ankle tweaks. Is there a spot for Adam Morrison in this league? Check out JJ Redick's line from last night, there may be your answer. And for those of us enjoying the free League Pass this week, we can answer the age old question, does Sean May sweat gravy or a nice Bearnaise sauce?

Dallas has its first tilt tonight - all y'all who are counting on Dirk to be your true first rounder, here's your first glimpse. And Luis Scola, we're eyeballin' you.

I gotta nap so I can stay up to watch New Orleans/Phoenix. Lots of fantasy type people players in this contest, from CP3 and Amare all the way down to Matt Barnes and James Posey. And supposedly, Shaq's minutes will be down on the 2nd game of a back-to-back. That could help you Amare owners out there, or more accurately, the legions of Robin Lopez owners out there.

Update from NBA.com/fantasy

2008-10-29T10:32:00.000-07:00

Here is an update from the front page of one of my NBA.com fantasy leagues:

Featres Alert: Player trades, standings and the scoreboard will be available in the next 48 hours.

I'm glad they jumped right on this. And I'm especially excited by all of the "featres" we'll be getting, like being able to trade players, make free agent pickups and actually have them show up on a roster, and to see a scoreboard of my matchup. Thanks again, Rotohog! We'll be extra excited to join the Stock Exchange now!

Impressions on the first half of the first game of the year

2008-10-28T18:14:00.000-07:00

Holy crap, KG is a bust! It's over in the leagues where I picked him in the first round! I'm taking trade offers right now, maybe I can get Kirilenko in return. If I'm lucky. Pierce has all the points, but not much else. I know that will change over the year, so if you've got Pierce, enjoy points. Look at Delonte West, getting nearly 17 minutes in the first half and hasn't missed a shot since pregame warmups. What are you waiting for in your shallow leagues - pick him up now! Seriously, West could be a nifty player on your team if you need a PG but have punted assists, as those steals could pick up, and he could approach 50% FG in the Cavs offense (both plays, LeBron left, LeBron right).

There's something interesting in the Cavs boxscore from half 1. Ben Wallace played 13 minutes, got 3 boards and a blocked shot. No way in H, E, double upside down sevens should Wallace be anywhere near your squad, but he picked up some serious PT, didn't smother the boards, and took no shots. That means Cleveland's O has to come from the other 4, which is nice. Of course, a lot will go to Bron-Bron, but that's plenty of pie for Mo Williams and Delonte West and Ilgauskas. You know this coming in to the Cavs this year, but watching it play out on TNT and Yahoo boxscores makes it all real. The non-LeBron Cavs are players to watch all year, especially the 2nd half as there schedule is much more fantasy H2H friendly, with 4 gamers abound.

Give Me The Rrrrrrrrrroarrr! - a look at my GMTR Monster team

2008-10-28T14:31:00.000-07:00

Well tonight starts the season - huzzah! - and I thought I'd give a li'l insight to a draft I had recently in the Give Me The Rock Monster (20 team) League, what happened and how it all went horribly wrong. Kinda like the end of a Monk episode, but with slightly less Traylor Howard - she once had 2 guys AND a pizza place! BTW, I had pick #12, right smack in the gooey center of it all.

Round 1 - Chris Bosh (TOR) I like Chris this year, love the percentages, and with his Yahoo center eligibility, allows me to go a few different ways - as the non-shot blocking center of a small team, or another cog in a big team. I will mention, that Brendan of 2nd Round Reach picked next, and his autopick was set to "alphabetical", as his 1st round pick was Rafer Alston. B, if you can pull off the playoffs in this league, you may become a Fantasy Hall of Famer. The beauty of these drafts is when someone screws up, you can see it immediately in chatbox postings. Mine: "Brendan must think it is an And1 draft - round 2, Escalade; round 3, The Professor."

Round 2 - Joe Johnson (ATL) I would have loved Calderon here for my double Raptor fix, but he went 5 picks prior. Martin and West were on my board, but they went right before me as well. I decided to lock up a PG since I wouldn't be picking for a while, so I went with JJ as he still has Yahoo PG eligibility and his post Bibby arrival splits were stellar. And besides his time on the pine during Tankapalooza 07, he is an 80 game player (which I'll need with Bosh) and a league leader in mpg since Mike Woodson has as much faith in his bench as an NBC exec does in a show he puts up against American Idol on Wednesday nights. Am I right, industry people?

Round 3 - Mike Miller (MIN) - Pick #52, and a lot of the bigs I liked were either off the board or too early to pick. I wanted a scorer, and a guy who shot threes, decent % numbers, and had some roster flexibility. Well that screams Mike Miller. I was counting on some decent bigs being left on my comeback at #69.

Round 4 - David Lee (NYK) Like DL42. Until this guy blows out a knee Livingston-style, I will be all over him this year. I love the percentages and the boards should be +10 this year, as he's got to get over 30 minutes a night in an up-tempo system. And 6 out of every 10 shots Jamal Crawford takes have to land somewhere, why not in the paws of Mr. Good Things?

Round 5 - Marvin Williams (ATL) I had come up short in a few drafts of getting Marvin, and I figured that at #92 was a good a spot as any for him. I expect a slight uptick in minutes with Childress gone (but not a great amount), but the key for me is that Marvin is an 80% FT shooter, and no Hawk got to the line more than he last year. I think he purposely tries to get fouled, since he's a horrible finisher. But hey, play to your strengths. A steal a night is very doable for Marvin, and this guy better bust his heiney in an RFA contract year (just like David Lee).

Round 6 - Nick Collison (OKC) I keep targeting the same players, like Collison. Double double, percentages that won't kill, and maybe can get some hustle categories a night/week. For some reason, I love center-eligibles who don't block shots. They have to be one someone's team. Maybe I can trade him for a reboundless team's castoff. Dare to dream.

Round 7 - Mikael Pietrus (ORL) You know what my team was missing? Guys who had been yanked around by Nellie but still had some nights where he lit up the stat sheet. And since it was a hair too early to pick Kelenna Azubuike, I went with the Frenchie. Quick aside: when I tried out for "Stump the Schwab" back in the summer of 2005, I got past the written test and the 3-man mock game, and was in a one on one with an assitant producer. He asked me to name as many Golden State Warriors as possible, and the first one I mentioned was Mikael Pietrus. Then I went with Dunleavy (go Duke!), and eventually I got to Boom Dizzle. September 2005, I took a trip to New York, taped an episode of STS, and got eliminated in a first round tiebreaker. Thanks a lot, Mikael Pietrus!

Round 8 - Mario Chalmers (MIA) 149 pick in, I hoped to get lucky, especially after his double double the night before in the preseason and his likely startitude for the Heat. If anyone wants to make an offer for him a few games into the season, I'll listen unless he blowses up. And stay away from the weed, Mario, especially that Pineapple Express shizznit. God's vagina and whatnot.

Round 9 - Derek Fisher (LAL) I'll admit it, I choked. I have no problem dropping him for one of my patented waiver wire pickup du jour. Also another one of the 2005 Warriors I mentioned to the ESPN associate producer in my Stump the Schwab tryout. Another side note on that, he asked later to name as many Sacramento Kings as I could. This was post Webber trade, so admittedly I was stumped, so all I could come up with was Bibby and Kevin Martin. He was actually impressed that even though I was at a loss, I came up with the 12th man on the Kings. How far you've come, K-Mart.

Round 10 - Sean Williams (NJN) - Complete flier, haven't decided on whether to hold him until he has a big 5 block game, or dump him quickly. That's what my Derek Fisher spot is for.

Wrapping up, I think this is a biggish team, but who knows. I've got some scorers, some shooters, some rebounders. Maybe things can come together for a string of 5-4's. And we'll see what kind of crap is left over in the free agent pool. First-a glance: not-a so much.

NBA - It's Fantastic.

2008-10-26T17:58:00.000-07:00

I just had a draft on NBA.com, my money league. It's a shallow league, 100 players. It started at 11:00 AM EDT. It should have ended around noonish. It finished around 3:00 because it kept locking up. There were players I couldn't find, and now post draft I don't know who I'm playing in week 1 for this h2h league. Oh, by the way, the season starts in less than 2 days. I enjoyed nba.com last year, but this could kill it for me and throw it back to Yahoo. Yahoo is not 100% perfect, but at least it worked. Good luck, NBA/Rotohog. I think you've managed to piss of a chunk of the fantasy hoops community. I hope you can handle a strongly worded commentary or email.

GMTR live draft - Anything is Possible (but not always justifiable)

2008-10-24T18:01:00.000-07:00

Somehow, I achieved entry into the Give Me The Rock readers league (12 team, 9-cat, H2H), and I would have gotten away with it if it weren't for those meddling Turkish kids! (Please do not click link - long story short, I was writing for Full Court Press Fantasy Basketball, it got hacked by Turks, and I'm just now up to writing again.) Anyway, the draft was Tuesday night I got pick #9, and I thought I'd give all y'all a little insight to one of the most mediocre minds in fantasy basketball.

Round the 1st: Top 4 goes as expected. This year, drafts start at pick 5. In this one, #5 went with Shawn Marion. Color me nonplused (or mauve), but I'm not on the Marion train this year. I can't explain it, I just don't feel it. Anyway, better opportunity for me to get someone I liked here, Nowitzki, Garnett, or Wade (I'd say Brand, but at worst he would be off the board by Nels at #8). I kinda was leaning Wade, but then Brand, Nowitzki, and Wade went off 6-7-8. Well, that pretty much locked me into Kevin Garnett. All those years I wanted KG, I finally get him and it's at number 9. Yay. I still like KG here, and I think his stats will continue from last year since Boston made no significant roster upgrades since July (my apologies, O'Bryant family).

Well, that left me with 5 guys who I would look for at pick #16, which was 6 picks away. None of those five were PG's, and I had to figure a couple of those would go off the board. I liked Butler (pts, steals, FT%), Jefferson (pts, rebs, blks, FG%), Bosh (pts, rebs, FG%, FT%), Boozer (pts, rebs, FG%), and Granger (all-around, would be a SG in a big-leaning lineup). Well, most of them came off the board - Butler: 10, Bosh: 12, Jefferson: 13, Granger: 15. I guess that left ...

Round the 2nd: Carlos Boozer. I will say Josh Smith was a possibility. But now that Yahoo! took away his SG eligibility (why wait until now?), it's just not the same anymore. You changed, J-Smoove. Okay, so now I got a couple of PFs, one with C eligibility. I think I'm leaning biggish, although without the blocks and more points. We'll see how this plays out. The last time I drafted Boozer, he was out for 3/4 of the year. Stay healthy, guy who is from land where you can see Russia from your front porch.

Round the 3rd: Okay, 16 picks until mine, I had to figure who would go off the board. I'm thinking the next level of PG's (Billups, Davis, Nash, Calderon); a couple more bigs (West, Duncan); interesting PF's (Lewis, Smith), gunning SG's (Richardson, Martin). I figured someone would grab Dwight Howard; I had no interest. Paul Pierce might be available, but I really had no interest in him since I had Garnett (Boston's fantasy playoff schedule is brutal, my little wishful thinking). I still don't see how the Lakers roster will shake down, so I'll leave Gasol and Bynum for someone else. Andre Iguodala was a possibility, helping me to shore up steals, decent percentages. And I'm a hair higher on Carmelo this year than in previous years, as I like the percentages and there should be more boards available since the Nuggets have less guys on the team who got UMass put on probation. They guy I really want is ...

J-J-J-Joe Johnson PG eligibility please Mr. Yang? Thank you. I'll just throw out his post Bibby numbers: Pts - 23.2, 3's - 2.5, rebs - 4.6, asts - 6.6, stls - 1.2, FG% - 47.5%, FT% - 80.3%, TO's - 2.8. 4.6 rpg is a nice little figure for a bigball team at PG. I've got my 3's guy, and FT% won't be hurt. It's a shame JJ's game is not more geared to getting to the line, like say a Kevin Martin. So now I've got 2 PF's and a PG that fits my style. Are you happy, Talented Mr. Roto(ol)? And now that I had Johnson, I focused on a guy who would play nice with him.

Round the 4th: Hedo Turkoglu SG/SF eligible - at nearly 6 rpg, he's a SG in my biggish lineup. 2 threes a game - keep on chuckin'. I'm a little concerned about the TO's, that's not part of the overall plan. If you're going to pass it this year, Hedo, dish it to Pietrus, he'll probably be open. So right now, I've got a biggish team that can score, shoot pretty well with the clock on or off, shoot some 3's and no huge injury risks. I can play with that.

Round the 5th: I am now in my third year of being on the David Lee love train. Please keep rebounding, please keep being efficient, if you can steal a ball or 2 a night, that would be great, but don't get into foul trouble so you lose PT to Eddy Curry (snicker). Please do all the little things that Zach Randolph doesn't do (that's a lot of little things). And please Coach D, play him 30+ a night. I don't ask much. I don't think pick #57 is too high for Lee. I knew I wanted him, and I think he's a late 50's to 60's value. The ceiling isn't too much higher, but we shall see this year with the Knicks as he plays for his pre RFA year. Anyway, he's a PF/C and he'll be my 1st or 2nd center. Whee!

Round the 6th: Pick #64, and I could have went a few ways. In my mind, I wanted another scorer, and there aren't a whole heck of a lot left in this realm. Josh Howard was high in my queue, and his 7 rpg would have been great in my G spot (focus! get your head out of the gutter!). Alas, he went in pick #63. Okay, so what do I like? Points, rebounding for a guard eligible, good FT% at a high volume. Well, that's spelled Corey Maggette. He'll have plenty of opportunities to score and shoot free throws in the city by the city by the bay. Maybe he can do it from a better percentage from the field than Captain Jax. Wouldn't that be nice?

Round the 7th and beyond: Okay, here's where I start to get goofy. It's getting to be late in the 7th round, 80 or so guys off the board. I was hoping on Horford, Chandler, even Deng in my spot. All gone in the 7th. One guy was hanging around in my queue, taunting me. 2009 Kia Motors ROTY, Michael Beasley. I really couldn't tell you what Pam's distant cousin will do this year. He'll be on the court so he should do something, and hopefully not be early last season Durant-esque. In the next round, I think I caught the fever, and the only prescription was more rookie - OJ Mayo to be exact. Right about this time, I think I'm losin' it, and not the Tom Cruise / Shelley Long tour de force. Round 9, I went to my lower-middle class version of David Lee, Nick Collison. Maybe he can be not so much of a stiff. And good God, did I draft Al Thornton? He could be seeing the bench in the Clips 2 game weeks and maybe even their 3 game weeks.

Rounds 11-13, the bench rounds, your flier picks. I opened up another packet, got a few cups of sugar, some water and ice, stirred until dissolved, then swigged a couple of quarts of the rookie Kool-Aid: Marc Gasol, Rudy Fernandez, and Brook Lopez. I wouldn't have any problem dropping a single one of them yet, but they all intrigue me. Gasol and Lopez could be interesting pieces to deal as November turns into December, especially if they are getting burn and can block the ball. Since I don't really have a blocking team, I wouldn't mind dishing one or both if they can average over 1.5 a night.

I'll try to throw up more things over the course of the year, but best of luck to the other 11 dudes in this league.