Looking over the new fall (and beyond) schedule

I'm back, nerds!

Man, August is a rough time. It's Africa hot in Atlanta; the foosball hasn't started; back-to-school sales and what not. But the NBA schedule came out recently, and now's always a great chance to look at it for your H2H leagues (and to a much lesser extent, roto), even before you sort out your top 12.

So when the schedule first comes out, I look for a few things: 1) Are there any teams with a 5 game week (Milwaukee week 18 - I'll get to that) 2) Who has good "playoff" schedules, i.e., their schedule the last 4 weeks goes 4-4-4-2. This year, it's Houston, Milwaukee, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Toronto, and Washington. Just one more thing to consider for drafting purposes. It might give me an extra tick in the PRO column if I was choosing between, say Kevin Durant and Danny Granger. 3) I look to see which teams have the most 2 game weeks during normal play (not counting All-Star week and the last week of the season) and 1 game weeks in those weeks. New Orleans and New York each have 4 of the minimum game weeks. In a way, that sucks, but keep in mind that these teams must also have the most 4 game weeks - they each have 13. That's not going to change my mind on CP3 - he's #1 until he pops an Achilles in camp or finds where Julius Hodge is playing this summer and pops him in the jimmy again. But maybe I'll give an extra glance to Wilson Chandler, if not on draft day, then in advance of their hottest schedule stretch, which is just about from mid-February on.

Anyway, I'll be looking at team schedules, division by division, to gauge some strategies pre-draft, like playoff schedule, when 2-game weeks hit (so you don't have your top guys playing 2 games at the same time), and how schedule quirks hit the guys outside the first couple of rounds. Miami plays 2 games in a week, you're not benching Dwyane Wade, but Udonis Haslem's going to have a tough time cracking my lineup. Also, this is a purely integer-based analysis; a team playing 3 games in a week against GS, NY, and NJ might be better off than a team playing 4 games against SA, SA, BOS, and DET. But you'll have to delve into that closer to the zero hour.

First up, Atlantic Division teams...

Boston

4-game weeks: 10
minimum game weeks: 1 (All Star week)
fantasy playoff schedule: 4-3-4-2

Minimum game week:
Week 16 (all-star week/1 game) - teams also at minimum this week: HOU, IND, MEM, NYK, OKC, PHX, TOR. I wouldn't alter drafting too much based on this week, AS week is a crap shoot anyways.

Boston never has a 2 game week during a week with a full schedule, but the rub against them is the stretch from week 3 through week 13 where they play 3 games every week. While I think KG will be just fine and not have a Shawn Marion-in-2009-type-of-year, you don't get a huge push from him during a nearly 3 month stretch. The bulk of the Celts' 4-gamers are post AS, and they very well could be in locked in the third slot role, meaning the Big 3 could be the Big Not-Playing-Over-30-Minutes-a-Game 3. This kind of makes me like Rondo a little more. If he's playing at triple double level early in the season, that will be just fine during 3 game weeks. I'm going to keep an eye on Davis, Perkins, and Rasheed come All-Star time.


New Jersey

4-game weeks: 11
minimum game weeks: 2
fantasy playoff schedule: 4-4-3-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 9 - teams also at minimum this week: CHA, MEM, NOH, PHI, TOR
Week 12 - teams also at minimum this week: POR

New Jersey's schedule is fairly spread out - no huge stretches 4 games in a row, and it is neither front loaded nor back loaded with games in each part of the season. Devin Harris and Brook Lopez are the main guys to watch out for, and if you really like Courtney Lee, don't let the Nets schedule move him up or down in your draft. Same with Yi Jianlian. Basically, Jersey's schedule, like their team - meh.


New York

4-game weeks: 13
minimum game weeks: 4 (1 during All Star week)
fantasy playoff schedule: 2-4-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 7 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC, MIA, WAS
Week 11 - teams also at minimum this week: none
Week 16 (AS week) - teams also at minimum this week: BOS, HOU, IND, MEM, OKC, PHX, TOR
Week 22 (1st rd playoffs) - teams also at minimum this week: none

The Knicks have one of the most volatile schedules, but could turn out to be one of the sweetest. Week 11 (early January) they are the only team off, so unless you have the entire Knicks starting five on your roster (in which case you really love the Knicks and this decade has not been good for you - be like Spike and root for Kobe once in a while) you'll be in pretty good shape. The same goes for week 22, and it's even better if you're in the standard Yahoo-ey playoff format where 1st and 2nd places get 1st round byes. I'll take my chances in early February when the Knicks play 1 (against Sacramento - I peeked) and almost everyone else plays two - not a huge disadvantage in counting stats.

Those 13 4-game weeks are freakin' sweet though. I'm already driving the bus on the David Lee fan club victory tour, so really this changes nothing. I'm not the biggest Al Harrington fan, but going over his stats and his schedule makes me want to look at him further on draft day, especially if Yahoo thinks he played enough games at center for the Warriors last year so he can start on my small-ball team.

Wilson Chandler is the one to watch, especially if he can keep up the 1 three / 1 steal / 1 block per game average. His minutes and daily production can be volatile, but he put up some great numbers in the last 6 weeks of 2009. With this Knicks schedule, I would move him up one round where you would think to draft him, say from 7th to 6th. Nate Robinson - your guess is as good as mine. Krypto-Nate (Metallo?) is going to be just as frustrating this year as last, provided he signs something or plays for the qualifying a la Ben Gordon. I'd love to see Danilo Gallinari get some serious run - a) because he won't be hurt, and b) that should mean Jared Jeffries won't (God bless the Knicks if they ever trade him before Feb). Also, I'd like to like Duhon, since he's going to get some good assist numbers in the brothers D'Antoni system.But if they get Ramon Sessions any time before Feb. 2010, look out.

What about Darko? Well I guess someone in your league will draft him. Excelsior if you do. Let's say you have him on your roster mid-season as a throw-in to a trade. Hold him until just before the Knicks schedule picks up around mid-Jan., then release him. Hopefully, someone ahead of you in the waiver line will pick him up, thinking "Hey, Darko can give me blocks and rebounds." You move up one spot in the waiver order and that can help late in the season. That is how Darko will help you in fantasy hoops this season. You're welcome.

Of note: Eddy Curry is eligible to be drafted or picked up as a free agent at any time.

Philadelphia

4-game weeks: 10
minimum game weeks: 1
fantasy playoff schedule: 3-3-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 9 - teams also at minimum this week: CHA, MEM, NJN, NOH, TOR

Nothing jumps off the board with Philly's schedule. Andre Iguodala is going to be the main man there, and without a bunch of 2 game weeks on the sked, he should do nice things over the course of the year. I'm not sold on Louis Williams as the starting PG this season, so I'll let someone else jump on that grenade. One thing about him if you are lucky enough to get CP3 or Calderon - all three are only playing 2 games in week 9. Nothing to throw your whole draft out of whack, but something to keep in mind.

If healthy, Elton Brand will do Elton Brand things. He'll need to work on that "if healthy" part. I like Thaddeus Young this year - nice little jump in year 3. I've bought a timeshare in the "Don't Want Sam Dalembert Condominium Complex"; I want to see Marreese Speights get more PT. The thing is, the Sixers schedule doesn't have a lot of packs of 4 game weeks in a row. So you'll have to wait for a frontcourt injury or doghousing to pick him up and by then it could be too late. He's on the Watch List for now.

Toronto

4-game weeks: 11
minimum game weeks: 2 (1 during All Star week)
fantasy playoff schedule: 4-4-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 9 - teams also at minimum this week: CHA, MEM, NJN, NOH, PHI
Week 16 (AS week) - teams also at minimum this week: BOS, HOU, IND, MEM, NYK, OKC, PHX

Toronto has a nice and smooth schedule, with a great playoff docket and a stretch from weeks 3 through 8 where they play max 4 games. If you want to get off on a roll early, have all the Raps on your squad take two steps forward (not so fast, Marcus Banks). This could make Jarrett Jack more draftable than you thought, or at least an early free agent pickup. This schedule is great for Calderon and Bosh - not a lot of 2 game weeks and they'll do solid for you in the 3 game weeks, plus can be a great playoff duo, especially since the Raps will be jockeying for playoff position come March and April in real life.

I like this team - with its schedule and all of the guys getting major minutes not named Joey Graham can fill out yer lineup. You damn well better target Bargnani for your small ball team - heck, he's not a bad C for your mid-ball team. If this team starts out hot (depending on how fast they mesh all their new players) having a couple of Raptors would be, how you say? nice. Their strong season ending schedule make them must gets for playoff time, provided guys like Bargnani haven't drifted off to pansy-like 2007 form. It's a shame they have so many games early - not enough time to get max effect out of a guy like DeMar DeRozan to see how he can fit in.

Wait, I haven't mentioned Hedo Turkoglu yet. If I draft him, I'll see plenty of 3 for 14 nights with 4 TO's. If I don't, I'll go up against him when he drops a few 20-5-5 w/2 steals on me. Screw you, you berzerk Turk!


Up next - Southeast Division...

I was wr-, wro-, wr- ...

Fonzie on Happy Days was many things - lover, mechanic, someone with a GED who eventually taught auto shop, shark jumping water skier, all while wearing a leather jacket. But he was loathe to admit he was wrong - couldn't even say the word. Well here is where I can be better than Fonzie (8 year old me would be so proud), I can admit things where I was wrong in fantasy basketball this year:

- I thought Pau Gasol would be a shadow of what he was in recent years and at the end of last year. Shame on me for doubting tall unshaven Spaniards. Of course, I did anticipate decent things from Marc Gasol.

- I saw big things from Jason Richardson this year. Oopsie. There's still time for redemption, and Phoenix's post AS break schedule is nice. But I would have loved to have tucked JR in my SG spot and let him sit there collecting rebounds and 20 point nights.

- I thought Terry Porter as coach of the Suns wouldn't have too much of an impact on Stoudemire and the Suns offense. Yeesh. Safe to say, the days of having 7 Suns on league rosters (even shallow leagues) are over for quite a while.

- I was worried about overdrafting on Danny Granger. That's a guy I could use. Real glad I got Dunleavy though. Go. Pacers.

- Someday I'm going to be right about the dropoff to come for Chauncey Billups. Age, dammit!

- I thought Chris Wilcox would do a few things in the OKC, nothing world stopping, but at least contract year worthy. C'mon, man, step it up. On the bright side, I love the Thunder for fantasy. I've had a bunch of Thunderballers on my rosters or my radar this year - Durant, Green, Westbrook, Collison, Krstic, the aforementioned Wilcox, Watson, and soon Sefalosha. Keep the dream alive, Weaver. Hey, Dreamweaver! Cassandra, schwing!

- I thought at some point, my PG situation would be so horrid, I'd have to pick up Rafer Alston. Thank you, points guards on my rosters.

- I thought that what Mike Miller is going to do now, he would have done all year. Thanks a lot, headband wearing tool! (no offense)

You know, there were probably a lot of other things I was wrong at this year. Let's just leave it at those for now.

Yay Kevin Durant!

I saw that over at GMTR, they were giving out their mash notes for various NBA'ers. I figured I would give my splash of guy love to the dude who's making this season real fun for me, Kevin Wayne Durant (tall guy, plays in city where they usually host 1st and 2nd round NCAA tournament games, wears a blue jersey like a Knicks jersey you'd find at Marshall's).

KD was a target of mine this past fall. I know last December and January, he was dropped and picked up more times than a copy of USA Today that someone left at McDonalds. ROTY, sure, but there were plenty of horrible shots (leading to a FG% near 40) and TO's. He was getting a block and a steal a game, so if your team could handle the other things, he was still giving you 20 a night and really helping your FT%. Also, post All-Star Game last year, his FG% shot up as he was taking better shots, getting on the right side of 45%. This year, I was looking for the 20 point a night guys who were lights out from the line. Now this wasn't the best strategy this year (thanks a pantload, Martin and Dunleavy), but Durant is the perfect guy for that strategy, as he would get that steal and block per night and his 3pt shooting was bound to improve as he had a year under his belt at NBA distance.

Another thing I liked about Durant, fantasy-wise, was that he was SG eligible. At 6' 9" with some rebounding skills, that's especially useful, in an old Josh-Smith-on-Yahoo-of-the-last-few-years type of way. I always thought that PJ Carlesimo was a moronic coach for doing that. Now, LeBron and Kenny Smith last night were suggesting he is more of a 2 guard type. Maybe they're right, I'm sure they know more hoops than I could ever know, but if Durant is your 2, your 4 and 5 have to be pretty good - not be Chris Wilcox and Johan Petro. With Durant at 3, Jeff Green at 4, and Nick Collison at the 5, you can get away with Desmond Mason/Kyle Weaver at the 2. Hence, a better team. Anyway, PJ was around long enough where KD should be SG eligible next year. Thanks Coach!

Okay, so now I targeted Durant pre-draft. Where to pick him? His best case scenario would be at the low end of the top 50. I'm sure many people were going to stay away from him because they overdrafted him the previous year. I thought middle of round 6 would be a good spot for him, which is where I took him in the GMTR Mock Draft, pick #67. Where is he now? Clearly, there are not 66 players you'd take ahead of him. You might be able to take 6. He's going to be a first round pick next year - if he's not, you are getting a steal in round 2 or he's had a catastrophic Al Jefferson-ish injury.

Here are Basketball Monster Rankings for Durant in 9 categories, 8 cat non-TO leagues in parentheses:

Season - 10 (6)
last 60 days - 4 (3)
last month - 1 (1)
last 2 weeks - 6 (3)
last week - 2 (2)

Go check out his numbers for the year and some of his game logs in calendar 2009 - phenomenal. Getting first round value out of someone you drafted in round six - that's fantasy football stuff, not basketball. And next year, he'll be giving first round value in the first round.

One of the best things this year has been following Thunder games on Stattracker (because you sure aren't watching them on TV). Sure, the TO's add up, but his name is constantly in bold because he's always in the game (2nd in mpg behind Stephen Jackson). He's always scoring, and he gets to the line a ton. You'll rarely see zeroes in hustle categories. One Sunday this year, I was trailing in FG% by a decent margin. I would have had to have someone go complete nova, like 15/16 to win the category. Well KD started the game 9 for 9 and it got to the point where I was looking up the NBA record for most FG's in a game without a miss. (It's Wilt, at 18 for 18.) But when you get to the point where you're looking up NBA records while you're tracking someone's game, that's special. So thanks, Kevin, for being the shining diamond in my middle of the road season.

The Greatest Christmas Present Ever

Yep, you guessed it, Frank Stallone.