Tuesday, August 25, 2009

09/10 Schedules - Southeast Division


Don't just sit there playing games, Caron, start playing games!

This year's SE division has it all. A team that was 3 wins from an NBA title that kept the Polish Hammer. A team that has steadily improved its win total each of the last 4 seasons with a weak coach and has a bunch of fantasy viable players. A team with a reactivated agent. Super Cool Beas's team. And a team that occupies the space between tee times (now more bluey and less orangey!). Let's take a look at how their schedules come into play this year for fantasy.

Atlanta

4-game weeks: 10
Minimum game weeks: 1
Playoff schedule: 4-3-4-2

Week 20 - teams also at minimum this week: HOU, LAL, PHX

Atlanta has only two 4 game weeks in calendar 2009, with a stretch from week 5 through week 10 of 3 games a pop. Unless Coach Woodson wises up and doesn't have Joe Johnson among the league leaders in minutes, JJ can be quite good in the early season. Pop the hat off of Baby New Year and things get rolling for the Hawks. The Hawks have plenty of guys who want to score; with Crawford in town, there is going to be plenty of outside shooting, with him, JJ, Flip Murray, to a lesser extent than before Mike Bibby, and Jeebus help us Josh Smith. It was unbelievably great to see Marvin Williams shoot 3's. If he keeps up his natural progression and doesn't hurt his back, he'll be a nice SF to fill out your team when you picked PG's and PF/C's in the early rounds. I really like Al Horford, and the way this team runs its offense, he's a sneaky good assists guy for a big man. This team usually gets its injury bug around December, so it's nice that the schedule is spread out at this time. If you can target some guys in January to fill out your team, it will be a great time to trade for some Hawks.

Charlotte

4-game weeks: 10
Minimum game weeks: 1
Playoff schedule: 3-4-4-2

Week 9 - teams also at minimum this week: MEM, NJN, NOH, PHI, TOR

Charlotte is another slow starter: three 3-gamers, one 4-gamer, then three more 3-gamers. You can't really get on a Bobcat roll until March. Man, I just don't see a playoff team here. I never have and likely never will draft Raymond Felton - not even on autodraft, because he's the one guy I make sure to move down. I can't have a guy take that many shots shoot 41% at best. If you've built a big-ball team and need a PG in the middle rounds, you might be able to get by with it; his assists and steals are pretty good, maybe enough to back door those cats in a week (you've given up 3's, right?). His low FG% can be salvaged by a guy like Dwight Howard. Again, it's a way to go.

Crash is the only Bobbin'cat I'd think about taking in the early rounds; he might even be a good sell high candidate near your trade deadline. Tyson Chandler used to be a fave of mine and he's going to be a downgrade from Okafor. There are 3's guys like Augustin and Bell out there, but good gravy, this roster sucks. I'm rootin' for ya, Boris Diaw, but feel free to draft him late and drop him as soon as you see someone in the league doing well.

As presently constructed, I can't see this team making the playoffs. But if they're out of it by March, their schedule picks up and some of the young guys may pay off, like Gerald Henderson and Alexis Ajinca. Pay attention, junior fantasy hoopsters, that's your first mention of Ajinca in the realm of fantasy (this doesn't count). Don't hold your breath for mention #2.

Miami

4-game weeks: 10
Minimum game weeks: 1
Playoff schedule: 4-3-3-2

Week 7 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC, NYK, WAS

The meaty part of the schedule is from weeks 11 through 17 where Miami plays max games each week. That's when you want Heat players on your roster; the way you do that - get the 3rd overall pick. D-Wade is going to be the shizzle, but this team won't give him enough to fill out his fave five. I'm not going to pile on to Michael Beasley, so I'll just wait until we can say "Cool Beans" to Super Cool Beas. Jermaine O'Neal will be The-$23M-Expiring-Contract-of-Jermaine O'Neal. If you can hide a 3-point gunner on your roster, you could do worse than Daequan Cook. If you need a PG late on your big-ball team, I think Mario Chalmers is a better option than the above-mentioned Raymond Felton. Someone has to get rebounds on Miami, might as well be Udonis Haslem. And since Miami's schedule picks up starting Jan. 4th, I predict Dec. 30th as the day I try to get cute and pick him up for FG% and boards, then Jan. 7th for me to say, "What the deuce?!?"

Also, Yakhouba Diawara is on the roster. I submit that he is the worst player in the NBA for fantasy that might actually start games. The Heat would have to have a 7 game week for me to think about picking him up. Maybe that will happen in a lockout shortened 2011 season.

Orlando

4-game weeks: 11
Minimum game weeks: 2
Playoff schedule: 4-3-3-2

Week 6 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC, NOH, OKC, POR, SAS
Week 21 - teams also at minimum this week: DAL, POR

Orlando is one of the best and could be the best team in the league. It is also a team where it comes into play seriously. Their post AS Game schedule is lighter than others, and they very well could lock themselves into an Eastern Conference seed well before mid April, so it might be tough to have Vince on your roster then. D-12 is 1st or early 2nd round pick in H2H leagues; you know he's going to come out early and hard, especially with Rashard Lewis out the first 10 games.

Speaking of that, Orlando got really lucky with the schedule fantasy-wise. Their first 3 weeks are 3-4-3 - Lewis misses exactly 3 weeks. If they were scheduled 3-3-2, he's suspended into your 4th week. If they were scheduled 4-4-4, he's useless for 3 weeks plus you've lost him for 3 max game weeks. So he'll be ready to roll in week 4, and really I'll have no qualms drafting him in a head-to-head league.

The other big thing about Orlando's sked - the short All-Star week (16). Nine teams play only 1 game. Twenty teams play 2 games. Orlando plays 3. This can be a huge advantage if you have a couple of Magic starters on your roster. If you have Howard on your roster, he can win FG%, rebounds, and blocks all by himself, then you can gamble on steals and 3's. If you can counteract FT% and TO's, you can be gunning for a 7-2 / 8-1 this week. This week alone can make it worthwhile to have 2 Magicians on your roster. Milwaukee's 5 game week in late February may get more talk, but this is the most valuable team-week in the season for fantasy. Make sure to check your league rules, though. Some platforms can combine this week with the week before or after, effectively neutralizing this advantage. Yahoo! does not (unless it's an upgrade this year).

Orlando has plenty of big names this year, and they have 4 guys I wouldn't mind drafting to pay off the first half of the season - Howard, Lewis, Carter, and Nelson. And if something happens, I have no prob picking up whoever shines out of the Anderson, Barnes, Pietrus, Redick group.

Of note: Orlando and Portland really don't mesh schedulewise. Thus, I wouldn't pick a Magician and a Blazer in high rounds together, in this case Howard and Roy. I would put later round guys together, like Rudy Fernandez and Mickael Pietrus, or a mix like Howard and Oden. Again, don't screw up your draft, but keep it in mind.

Washington

4-game weeks: 12
Minimum game weeks: 3
Playoff schedule: 4-4-4-2

Week 3 - teams also at minimum this week: IND, MIL, SAC
Week 7 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC, MIA, NYK
Week 16 (AS week) - teams also at minimum this week: BOS, HOU, IND, MEM, NYK, OKC, PHX, TOR

Agent Zero is back! They've got Mike Miller! And Randy Foye! Coach of the Year (CBA) and league champion (CBA) Flip Saunders is running the show! Antawn Jamison is still doing things! No more gold shirts-black shorts! (sniff) Aren't you excited by the Wizards this year?!? Uh-huh, right.

I think the League Pass people will forgive you if you skip the Wizards-Bobcats tilts this season. That said, there are still some fantasy viable options wearing Wizards blue. Good luck drafting Gilbert Arenas this year - he'll be a nice high risk-high reward pick. Caron Butler has been killing you in roto the last couple of years, but when he's in the lineup, he's a serious top 3 rounds player. Jamison is an interesting player - a good small ball PF or big ball SF. I think a lot of people got burned by Mike Miller last year, but if he's on, he'll round out your lineup nicely and can fit into a variety of roster spots. The good thing about Randy Foye this year? He'll be playing and DeShawn Stevenson won't. His points will go down with the other gunners in the lineup, but he could be a nice sources of steals and threes in the later rounds. Brendan Haywood gives a hearty thank you to fantasy commissioners who make their leagues have 2 centers.

Schedule-wise, it's really backloaded for the Wizards, especially come playoff time. Hopefully by then you'll know if Butler and Arenas are hurt. Conversely, their early schedule is wafer thin. If you're shaky on Arenas, you can draft and hide him the first few weeks if you can.


That's it for the y'all division, up next, the rustbelt Central Division.

2 comments:

Henry said...

Nice work on the schedule. I didn't realise that about Orlando's All-Star games in Feb. I think that in itself nearly pushes Howard up the draft boards in my league. Also, thanks for your comment on my blog. Any comment is appreciated, even if you weren't happy about the big Pole and his award. Cheers!

Doneycat said...

I just thought that Eddy Curry deserved a passing mention in regards to salary vs. fantasy production. He doesn't get a chance to win much!

Keep in mind that during the week before the All Star game, Orlando plays Boston, Chicago, and Cleveland. I wouldn't rush out to pick up Jason Williams or Gortat that week, but Jameer, Vinsanity, and D12 need to be ridden hard then.