Hey, Boozer can read! He can really read the fine print of his contracts, too. For now, Carlos is in the Northwest Division, with such classics as Denver, Portland, and team that used to play in Seattle and won a title in the 70's. Everyone's clearly chasing the Lakers and Spurs, but each one has their own pieces for fantasy purposes.
Denver
4-game weeks: 9
Minimum game weeks: 0
Playoff schedule: 4-3-3-2
Minimum game weeks:
None
Well looky here! Denver has this year's flat as a board schedule. What does that mean? Well, it means you should never have to take out someone because they play a 2 game week. With guys like Carmelo and Chauncey, you can set them in you lineup then not need to move them all year, like a rotisserie chicken. (RIP, Ron Popeil. What, he's alive? Why yes, with all of those products and infomercials, his legacy will live on for years. Oh, he's not actually dead yet? Carry on then.) You want guys on this squad who can churn out points, rebounds, assists, whatever they do well. As long as he keeps being healthy, Nene could thrive in a schedule like this. Of course, streaky guys (JR Smith) and one-cat wonders (Birdman) only get a few chances to really go over the top for you in 4-game weeks. The playoff schedule won't set off any fireworks, but there should be another fight for seeding like last season, so don't expect any of the Nuggets' top players to sit on the shelf come fantasy playoff time.
Minnesota
4-game weeks: 12
Minimum game weeks: 3
Playoff schedule: 4-3-3-2
Minimum game weeks:
Week 4 - teams also at minimum this week: none
Week 15 - teams also at minimum this week: none
Week 19 - teams also at minimum this week: none
I can't really kill new GM David Kahn's work so far because even though Ricky Rubio no esta en la casa del Target, they just have to stay under the luxury tax line (and the salary cap line if necessary), collect pieces with moderate expiring contracts so they can be moved at some point, hope to hit on one or two 1st round draft picks by collecting multiple ones, and get a good coach to play at a good enough pace to keep fans excited. Heck, the Hawks did only one of those things 4+ years ago and they're in decent shape now. The Wolves can be bad to not-great the next couple of years; they owe the Clippers a #1 pick from the Jaric trade and it's protected top 10 the next 2 years, unprotected afterward - they might as well pounce for the 2011-2012 season to make that pick nigh worthless. Doesn't matter to me, I'm a 2 hr. plus Northwestern/Delta flight away from being effected. But at least I can see some sort of long range plan, and if I ever decide to don the blue n' green, I won't feel so bad.
Anyway, regarding the Wolves for fantasy - Al Jefferson, top 15 player, 20/10, yada yada yada. Kevin Love rebounds the ball, but only after drinking a special serum to control his fatness. New pickup Ramon Sessions should have plenty of people to dish it too, but of course he could use a team with a strong shot blocking presence behind him to take care of his lack of D (because then he would be Damon Sessions, and where's the flair in that?). I like Ryan Gomes and he would not be a bad late round/free agent pickup for the right week - they do have 12 4-gamers. I rate Johnny Flynn as a hold right now, well aware that someone in my league will like rookies more than I, scoop him up, and might get lucky with a decent PG. I'll take my chances. Enjoy the deep league you are in if you are grabbing Darius Songaila, and if something were to happen to Jefferson, he's not a bad pickup (see his percentages). And either my year is shot or I'm in a deep 20 team Yahoo league (where my year is still likely shot) if I'm picking up Brian Cardinal.
Now actually, the thing I just realized while typing this up 20 minutes ago: Minnesota has 3 2-game weeks (not counting AS and final season weeks), and in all 3 cases, they are the only team playing 2 games that week. Week 19 is a serious shot because 19 teams play 4 games that week. This is a major bummer if you picked Jefferson high as the anchor for your big-ball team. (No one else on Minny is worth the hassle of debating on sitting them in a 2 game week.) You need to have a reasonably high level big to back Jefferson up in those weeks, especially in week 19.
Here are the teams playing 4 games in week 19:
ATL, BOS, CHA, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MEM, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHX, SAC.
Here are the teams playing 4 games in week 4 (13 teams total) and 19:
ATL, CHA, CLE, DET, HOU, IND, OKC, ORL
Here are the teams playing 4 games in week 15 (13 teams total) and 19:
ATL, BOS, DEN, LAL, MEM, SAC
The one team to play 4 game weeks while Minnesota plays 2's is Atlanta. For this reason, Al Horford needs to be on your radar if you take Al Jefferson in round 1. Let's say you take Al with the 10th pick, a perfectly fine spot. Your next pick is 15th; future picks are 34th, 39th, 58th, 63rd, and 82nd. 15, 34, and 39 are too high. You can maybe go 58th, but 63rd might be okay. Right now, on ESPN.com, he's ranked at an average of 77 from the rankings of Brian McKitish, Erik Karabell, and Keith Lipscomb (McKitish has him 64th, not in top 85 of Karabell and Lipscomb - sorry he doesn't shoot enough 3's for you guys). GMTR has him ranked 51st in a 9 cat league, so some out there see a good year for him (while healthy).
I'd say the chances of Horford being available for you at 58 are about 40-60%; the number of centers you have to play will certainly be a factor. Also, where you take Al Jefferson in round 1/2 is a factor as well. You'll have a better opportunity at Horford if you pick Al 8th instead of in the 12/13 snake spot. Horford and Jefferson should both be PF/C's. If you take another center (and a scorer at that) between rounds 1 and 5, you can seriously lock in a big ball strategy. If you want to go in another non-big-ball direction with Jefferson, you'll need to take a hard look at Josh Smith and Joe Johnson, too. There, fantasy tips regarding Minnesota/Al Jefferson you can use in your H2H league. You're welcome.
Oklahoma City
4-game weeks: 11
Minimum game weeks: 2
Playoff schedule: 4-4-4-2
Minimum game weeks:
Week 6 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC, NOH, ORL, POR, SAS
Week 16 (All-Star week) - teams also at minimum this week: BOS, HOU, IND, MEM, NYK, PHX, TOR
The Thunder have a player named Kevin Durant. He is a good player. You should draft him if you get the chance. Don't just listen to me, here are his stats, see for yourself.
Oklahoma City has a good little schedule - 4 game weeks are spread out throughout the year, their minimum game weeks won't kill you, and they shouldn't have to worry about resting players for the playoffs just yet. They are young enough that the players you want to see get some exposure are already playing. The Thunder were a average-to-deep league goldmine last year, as they had a lot of players who were worth drafting or picking up at some point last year: Durant, Westbrook, Green, Sefolosha, Weaver, Collison, Krstic, Wilcox. Add in James Harden (and possibly Etan Thomas) to the mix this year, and you could have plenty of guys on the squad who have the opportunity to get 25+ mpg and fantasy relevance. Shaun Livingston isn't on that list yet, but you never know.
Right now, OKC is the only team under the salary cap, which could be important come February as teams scramble to get under the luxury tax number. Their roster may be slightly different after the All Star break, and more likely someone else's roster will be altered by having traded with Oklahoma City. The Thunder won't take on any bad contracts, but they could get a free player or two this spring. Again, just something to watch out for with the Thunder later in the year, but Thunder blue should already be on the brain with their 4-4-4-2 playoff schedule.
Portland
4-game weeks: 12
Minimum game weeks: 3
Playoff schedule: 3-3-3-2
Minimum game weeks:
Week 6 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC, NOH, OKC, ORL, SAS
Week 12 - teams also at minimum this week: NJN
Week 21 - teams also at minimum this week: DAL, ORL
Portland has 12 4-game weeks, four of them in the first five weeks of the season. They also have another stretch right before the All-Star break of four 4-gamers in five weeks. You'll get your money's worth Portland players this year. But if your trade deadline is in late Feb., that's when you may want to deal a little. They have a 2-gamer the week before the playoffs start, and it's a weak 3-3-3-2 after that.
As I mentioned with Orlando, Orlando's and Portland's schedules do not match up well at all. So if you get all down with B-Roy, Rashard Lewis ain't gonna work so well, especially with him playing just 72 games max.
Portland's schedule is frontloaded, so you're going to have to gamble that their playing rotation is settled some come draft time. Steve Blake isn't worth drafting in regular leagues, but Andre Miller is; Miller's value is likely going to be higher later in the year though, as a) Blake may not be there, and b) he will have wrested away a majority of the minutes. Oden may be worth something this year, as he'll have a year's amount of league play under his belt, and I assume that from May until now he hasn't fouled anyone. I wouldn't be afraid of drafting any Blazer or scooping one up early. Just don't look for Travis Outlaw on my playoff roster.
Utah
4-game weeks: 12
Minimum game weeks: 3
Playoff schedule: 4-3-3-2
Minimum game weeks:
Week 1 - teams also at minimum this week: GSW, MIL
Week 13 - teams also at minimum this week: None
You draft Deron Williams real high, looking for assists right off the bat, and oof, you're stuck with a 2-game week 1. Suck it up, bee-yotch, you can have more than one point guard on your roster. Alright, if you're worried, you should be worried about week 13. Utah is the only team playing 2 games that week and 21 teams are playing 4 games. For safety sake, here are the teams that play 4 games in both week 1 and week 13:
LA Clippers, Portland Trail Blazers. That's it.
So if you have Deron Williams, I guess you could go for Andre Miller or Eric Gordon or Baron Davis. If you have Memo Okur, as your center, well, you won't get another one who shoots threes - maybe you could borrow Spencer Hawes for week 13. If you have Millsap or Boozer, they can sit on your bench for a week or two. If you have Ronnie Brewer, well then, your plan to grab steals every week may have taken a hit.
The Jazz have 6 guys on their squad who are useful on standard fantasy squads. Their schedule really shouldn't dictate too much on that, but the big part of their schedule is right after the All Star break, where 5 of the next 6 weeks are 4-gamers. Who knows, the Millsap/Boozer conundrum may have been solved by then due to trade or injury or swine flu.
Thus endeth the Northwest Division. Stay tuned for the last division, the Pacific. Some of those teams are pretty good, like the Lakers. They wear purple and gold.
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