My draft is over, nerds!
Hola, dudes. I know it's been a while since I rapped at ya, but I was busy juggling and stuff. You may notice that I skipped rounds 10 and 11. Boo to the muthafreakin' hoo. In actuality, I didn't like those picks - Marc Gasol and Kirk Hinrich. Perfectly fine picks, I guess, but no flair, no pizzazz. I guess I won't lose the league with those picks, and as long as they don't fall of the face of the earth, I'll be fine. I do like that I got a serviceable center who can steal a bit and a guy who may play28 minutes a night (is possible trade bait) and can shoot 3's. Kirk actually triggered my late round run on threes, which is a perfectly swell draft strategy. Since I got my Basketball Monster subscription mid-draft, I started examining where I was deficient. The more big men I took (Nene, Anthony Randolph, ...) I was falling behind in 3's, even with gunners like Ray Allen and Troy Murphy. I don't have a small ball team built on steals/assists/threes, but I do have 3 guys who do other things - Allen with FT% and some scoring, and of course Murphy with rebounding (stay healthy, you filthy Mick (no offense!)). That way I knew I could go with three point shooters late, not damage categories I had built up like percentages, TO's, and boards. So Hinrich started my late three ball roll.
As I watched rounds 11 and 12 go forward ( 22 picks before I had pick 12-12), I had two clear targets in mind for my back to back picks (#144 and #145): Channing Frye and Anthony Morrow. Here's where you've got to love having your draft as close to the start of the season as possible, where you get to see preseason games and at least glimpses of lineups and playing time. You're getting information. You read what is going on with certain teams. You see that Phoenix's roster is not the same as last year. Hey, who's that starting at center? Wait, doesn't he have some sort of outside shot? He's got center eligibility and he will take threes? Why will he still be on the board? Here's where you've got to be selective in your take on preseason. Don't look at his percentages or results - look at where his numbers are coming from. He has had some brutal shooting games so far (1-9, 2-10, 2-11), mixed with some great games. He's taken threes in every game and made threes in (almost) every game. The minutes have been steady. So he's playing every night and has the green light. And he's not playing because someone is hurt (sorry, Robin Lopez). He is the Suns center. Here's where it's good to be like a good poker player - making correct moves not based on results but by the right opportunity. This is your post-pick #120 flyer. I know that there are at least 3 small ball teams who were picking twice each before my 12th round pick. In a true league with starters and benchers, I would have to think one of them should have taken a grab at the C-eligible who shoots 3's. From the comments in round 13, I think they were all counting on him being there. There's your snake draft lesson - it's not a reach if you grab your guy a hair early if you are at the ends.
The next pick - Anthony Morrow. Here can be the danger of preseason. Morrow, my favorite Yellow Jacket in the Association, is not going to play 30 minutes a night in the regular season like he has 4 times this preseason (including a 48 minute / 32 point / 6 threes gem a week and a half ago). But hey, he is playing, he is playing for Nellie, and the right streak in a 4 game week is all I need a few times this year. If he doesn't play, so what, he won't hurt percentages or TO's. And in a moveless league, I'll probably be going up against teams with injured players giving nothing (that would have been me in this league last year). Minimal downside, huge upside - dictionary definition of the 13th round pick. 3 of the next 5 drafters lamented that they didn't get Morrow. Eye Heart Validation.
So keep an eye on preseason if your draft is late enough. Look at numbers, but keep in mind the reasons behind the numbers and get your guys when you can late.
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