GMTR Mock Draft Rounds 6+7

Round 4 - Ray
Round 5 - Nene
Round 6 - Andre
They rhyme! Really, that's all you can hope for in a fantasy draft. And I was unbelievably lucky, too. How many words in the English language rhyme with the "Ay" sound? Not many I believe, only slightly more than rhyme with orange and silver.

Round 6 may be my first truly questionable pick. I was at the point where I was looking at my team - I liked where I was going so far, a mix of big and small players anchored by Chris Paul who will cure what ails ya. Right now, there were 3 or 4 teams playing pure small ball strategy, and 2 to 3 teams with strong big leanings. I wanted picks in these 2 rounds that could counteract both types of teams. At this point in the draft, there had been 17 point guard eligible players picked (Yahoo league, so this includes Dwyane Wade and Brandon Roy). I knew that I needed a PG here who could give me assists. After the run on PG's at the end of round 2, I didn't get another PG to shore up assists. Anyone I get at 96/97 (rnds 8+9) would pull in more negatives than I wanted in fg% and/or TO's (think Raymond Felton). I had so far built a solid FG% and TO team, so I wanted that type of PG going forward to get me dimes.

Now in this draft, as a group we have been scared off by a lot of players forcing them further down from what you've been seeing as average draft positions elsewhere. Boozer, Camby, Pierce, Marion - plenty of people just don't want them. Part of this is because this league we're drafting in is a no move league; who we draft is on our roster for the entire year, so you want those 80 game/30 minutes per types. Now with Andre Miller, you'll get the 82 games - he's the league's ironman right now, and probably gets more tail than AC Green. But that's not important right now. I think a lot of dudes and dudettes are scared off by the Portland backcourt sitch, as Steve Blake is there, Roy gets serious minutes, and Rudy Fernandez will get his time too. Will Miller get the minutes he had last year on Philly? No. Will he get more than 24? Yes, and I see something in the 30-32 range, which should give him the opportunity for plenty of assists. His FG% is good for a PG, but that entails the fact he is not a huge 3 point shooter. His steal numbers are average at best, but he can get you the 3 or 4 steal night every once in a while. I left other PG options like Mario Chalmers and Russell Westbrook on the board, fully aware they wouldn't make it back around. I think this pick of Miller was safe, but not exactly game changing. We'll see how it goes.

Now to start off the seventh round, I wanted a good splash pick. Yes, Boozer and Camby are still on the board at this point. And good blocks guys will be off the board soon as teams move into the specialist picks. And there was one guy who I wanted to get so I could follow all year, Anthony Randolph. His last month of the season in 08-09 was incredible. With Brandan Wright going down, he should be the main man as power forward in Oakland. He got 1.2 blocks per game last year - that was in only 18 mpg. Think of the blockingness if his minutes double, which it could. Heck, he got 41-1/2 minutes in a freakin' preseason game last night! I want to see what he does outside tonight in Indian Hills - maybe some Rucker-esque slams and 3rd row putbacks. Barring injury, he's going to be a fun guy to watch, and if he blows up, he can give me top half of the draft value, which, of course, is how you win your leagues.

I'll also say that around the time of these picks is when Basketball Monster went live again for the 09-10 season. So perhaps I'll be overthinking the next few picks, paralyzing things by analyzing things. Don't worry, the numbers won't work out where I pick Sebastian Telfair.

I'll keep review picks I make through round 13. Head back to Give Me the Rock for more round analysis by Erik of GMTR and Points in the Paint fame. He's been so good on recapping that he's practically influencing future picks (not mine... well, maybe). We are witnessing fantasy observer effect, a veritable Schrodinger's Cat of fantasy hoops. Maybe something good can come out of it, and we get Heisenberg compensators to allow for the creation of transporters.

Where I examine the World Wide Leader...

You may not know about it since you might not be on their sites for fantasy hoops, but nba.com and ESPN have brought together their fantasy games into one platform. I have some experience with ESPN's fantasy site for hoops - it runs quite smoothly in drafting and league management and the ability to auction draft is sweet. I still don't like that position eligibility locks in once the season starts. Anyone who has read 82games knows that players oft play more than one position and sometimes, over the course of a season, players move positions due to injuries. I always liked this on Yahoo!, where sometimes a guy gets a position added after a few weeks and can really open up your roster, especially if you incorporate a big-ball or small-ball strategy. Really, it's a small complaint, and ESPN does just fine for many a fantasy player. And from what I've seen, they've opened it up a little so that some players are eligible for more than 1 position, more so than last year. Bully for them.

On the other side, I'm glad that nba.com has moved away from the fantasy side. They were brutal last year. First of all, they started late. Then they didn't have all they players. And then drafts kept screwing up. What should have been an hour long process took over 3 hours. Then it didn't count stats correctly the first 2 weeks. Maybe they fixed it, I don't know, because we ditched it then and there. It's a shame, because they had some things I liked, like free stat tracking, links to in-game box scores on nba.com (still nice, but I don't go out of my way to go to them now), and the chance to make multi-team trades. There is nothing like the satisfaction of pulling of a three team deal where everyone improves (but one team really doesn't and you just wanted to screw them). Their Stock Exchange they had the last couple of years was cool too, but that got real old after a while. Count me as one of the many who started it last October then gave it up by Thanksgiving.

But anyway, I want to look some more at ESPN. This year, they have built upon last year, where everything was revised, fresh, and responsive to what a lot of the people want (just that old SNL skit from the 80's or early 90's where Kevin Nealon and Dana Carvey were male strippers who shaved their pubes "for da people". I can't find it - please tell me someone else remembers this. And no, it's not the only SNL skit from that era I remember. What about Schmitt's Gay?) Now everything isn't so new, and they don't have to tout everything, it's just smoothly up and running. I like a lot of their league options, and leagues are very fungible for what you want. Really, it's 2009, it should be like that.

Since it's been up and running, they take it seriously. While there was not much content over the summer months, they've got their staff putting out product now. For instance, Josh Whitling has a great article up today about 9-cat (turnover) leagues (ESPN defaults to 8-cat, no TO's). It was good to hear him mentioning playing against the "point guards and power forwards" strategy that is ESPN's fantasy basketball mind numbing mantra like "Mola Ram, Sula Ram", with Matthew Berry as their Mola Ram (after a few Long Islands, ladies, they kinda look similar). While they don't turn the fantasy world upside down, they do write good enough articles where the novice and the high intermediate players can get something out of it. And they have content, unlike some platforms that have their big board un-updated since July 31st (cough, Yahoo, cough, Brandon Funs-cough-ton). At least Yahoo's stat tracker is free this year; they must have felt the heat from ESPN who has had it for free already.

Here's one last thing I want to bring up. With all their writers, ESPN did a 10 team mock draft last week. Again, they don't seem to think turnovers matter, so it's an eight cat league. Whatever, but I tend to think that turnovers give you a truer value of a player. Dwight Howard's TO's are a major knock against him, enough that it's tough for me to see him as a real MVP when he can bring two glaring negatives to the table. Anyway, their draft goes along, and you can really see many of them praying to the church of PG/PF's (save for Whitling, even as he got the #1 pick and CP3; needless to say, I liked his draft). I'm going to focus in on one, Keith Lipscomb, a very solid writer for the four-letter.

Keith had the #8 pick and took Dwight Howard, perfectly fine for 8-cat H2H. He comes right back with Al Jefferson. I love it, two 20-10 guys off the board. Now ESPN standard league employ 13 roster spots, 3 bench, only 1 center, and 3 utility. If it were a 2-center must play league, I'd think about coming back with another center to screw other teams over and to lock down big ball cats. ESPN 1 center, I can see going non big or maybe even PF. But Lipscomb goes point guard and at 28 takes Baron Davis. Now even if Boom Dizzle were in his free-wheeling Nellieball time, it's a bad pick. First of all, the Clips pace was near standstill. And while he'll get assists, steals and threes, none of them are really game and roster changers. He's a shooter with FG% in the low 40's, and if he gets any volume, it negates one of your two big men. He made a pure roto pick in a head to head league, and he got sucked into the PG/PF mantra. With a big 2 like Howard and Jefferson, I'd look for a PG that can build off of those 2's FG%, give up 3's, then maybe look for steals from non PG's. I'm thinking Rose, Parker and Miller to name three. Rose isn't that big of a stretch - he went #32. And Lipscomb took Parker in round 5 at #48. Josh Smith went at #31 - that would have been a serious pick for him at 28. Maybe he can trade Davis later in the year. You can pore over the rest of the draft and one writer's analysis. I'm surprised he didn't bring this up.

The deal is, I like ESPN's site, but you can get bashed over the head with their "point guards and power forwards" strategy. I know, there's more to it than that. Just be sure you don't blindly follow it, or you'll be stuck with Randy Foye as your shooting guard. As of right now, I'm not playing ESPN this year, but I can be convinced if someone invites me to a league. Good luck to you if it's your platform of choice.

GMTR Mock Rounds 4+5

The third round in the Give Me The Rock Readers Mock Draft was a tough one to wrap your head around. Point guards Jameer Nelson, Rajon Rondo, and Tony Parker all jumped off the board (as well as Memhet Okur, a good but not great small-ball team center), while more established wings and power forward types came off in round 4 (Josh Smith, Vince Carter, Kevin Garnett, Shawn Marion, Carmelo Anthony, Tim Duncan, and Elton Brand). So after 47 picks, the order of players picked may not have been perfect, the right players were mostly off the board. I had a glimmer of hope that some former 1st round picks with question marks may still be on the board (Brand, Garnett, Marion), but that all happened right before my pick. C'est la mocque.

As the fourth round was rolling around, I could see some teams clear strategies, mainly big ball, small ball, mid ball/across the board, and whatever pick 12 (Project Spurs) is trying to do.

Here are the small ball teams I wanted to attack:
Pick 3 (Kardashian Babymaker) Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson, Gilbert Arenas
Pick 5 (Ncizzle) Kobe Bryant, Chauncey Billups, Kevin Martin, Al Harrington
Pick 6 (Killer Instincts) Danny Granger, Jose Calderon, Mehmet Okur
Pick 10 (pwangsta) Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Antawn Jamison, Jason Terry

At this point in the draft, I wanted with my back-to-back picks to make dents in both big ball and small ball teams by taking one of each. I had one big in mind, and if he was taken, I'd go with 2 guards. Those 2 guards were Ray Allen and Monta Ellis. I knew at some point, Allen would have to come off the board because of his threes and FT%. While his FT% is over 90%, the volume isn't there. But coupled with a big who is mediocre from the stripe but with not a lot a volume, it smooths out into a palatable figure. Anyway, I knew that Ray had to be a target eventually (at least before my pick 72 in round 6) for either the small ball teams to lock down 3's or big ball teams who wanted some 3's without taking a big hit in FG%. So with Allen and Murphy, I had a nice block of threes where I can definitely hold my own week to week. If I wanted to come back with Monta Ellis, I would be solidifying FG% from the guard spot, getting more points, and adding to steals (with little to no addition to threes). In the end, while I thought this would be a good piece, I wanted to get another center since not many had been taken, and I thought there would be a run on C's in the next 10-15 picks.

I thought Nene would be my strongest option for my team. He shot over 60% from the field last year, and I have to believe he can get near that high again. Rebounds are decent but not spectacular. Free throw percentage is fair/good for a center. The big thing for me was that he led all center eligibles in steals last season (even more than Dwight Howard). Since Denver will be playing at least 3 games a week every week of the season, I figure that he should give me 4 steals a week from the center position. That's going to be a bonus that teams who get centers later won't get. So while Monta Ellis would have been good for me in steals, I believe that Nene + a later round guard can give me just as many if not more thefts as Ellis + a later round center who probably won't steal much at all.

Three players I looked at were taken with the next three picks: Al Horford (who can be good for a double-double and a not-bad assist guy for a center eligible), Monta Ellis, and Paul Pierce who made it into the 5th round. While I like PP, I thought the negative he brings would take too much away from what I'm doing so far, namely in FG% and TO's. I have a feeling there are enough SF's out there who can approach his scoring but won't turn it over/miss as many shots.

Right now, things I need to work on are points and assists, possibly more steals, could always use more rebounds, and would not like to lose much in FT%. Is that so much to ask?

GMTR Mock Draft rounds 2+3

Lopez & Murphy

Well, I wanted Jose Calderon if I got Chris Paul in a Head to Head league - NO plays 2 games in weeks 5 and 6, while Toronto plays 4 games in each of those weeks. Since I am counting on doing solidly in assists, I wanted the back-up for that. So my initial plan was to get another top tier PG (with Calderon being my #1 choice) and pairing him with whoever was left of Brook Lopez or Troy Murphy. I figured that whichever PF/C I got would start to mold my team off of the Chris Paul framework. With Lopez, I'd get some boards, great FG%, very good blocks, and very little drop off in FT%. With Murphy, I'd get the boards, FG% that is not a drag, and those delicious threes from a big man that I know that teams who had drafted two guards in the first two rounds would target (teams with picks 3, 5, 6, and 10).

But once Calderon came off the board with the seventh pick of the second round, I had to change my strategery. Calderon is a part of a tier of PG's worthy of being drafted in round 2. Luckily, the next 4 picks before mine were PG-eligible players - Billups, Kidd, Johnson, and Harris. But those players are all under 45% from the field. I am looking to hold onto FG% with Chris Paul as long as I can. I love Lopez this year because of that. And if he can block 2 shots a night, so much the better.

The first pick of the third round may be the one I regret down the road, but I like it from a league strategy point. 10 guards were taken in the 22 picks between my #1 and #2. Three teams took 2 guards (Johnson/Wade, Billups/Bryant, Williams/Nash), along with teams that came back with guards after drafting Durant and Granger. That's 5 teams I know could have used Troy Murphy in round 3. One of them will have to take Al Harrington at some point for their center, and that will pull down their already damaged FG% (by the likes of Harris, Billups, etc.) Also, Lopez, Murphy, and a good for a guard rebounder Paul put me right up there with teams going big ball.

Basically, I'm going a little roto in this H2H league. This year, I think that's a good idea with Chris Paul and it's because of their schedule. This year, New Orleans has the most weeks with 4 games, 13. That also means that they have the most minimum game weeks, 4. So in those max game weeks, you can load up on assists and steals with Paul by himself, then add on the big man's work with the PF's and C's. In those 2 game weeks, it's like a pooch punt in assists and steals (CP3 could still blow up in 2 games though) but you've got the big-ball cats to fall back on. So even in those min game weeks, you can be 5-4, 6-3, or even 7-2. Now if this year New Orleans had a schedule like Denver (no 2 game weeks, least amount of 4 game weeks), I might lean more toward a strategy of guys who can build more on what Paul can do - steals, 3's, points, assists if they are there.

There were a bunch of guys who I was thinking of taking at 24 and 25. I'll discuss them in the comments after they are picked in reality. For a round by round discussion, check out Give Me The Rock recaps written by 2nd best Filipino fantasy guy (sorry E, but this guy is living the fantasy). Later haters!

PS When you put in "Mario Lopez" into Google image, you have to go down a good ways to find one where he's wearing a shirt. I'm scared to do a search with safe mode off.