09/10 Schedules - Southwest Division

Timmy, why do I feel that come late in the season, you'll be reading a newspaper on the sidelines, a la Willie Beamen in "Any Given Sunday"? (Go Albuquerque!) In the off-season, though, the Spurs and other divisions made moves to make themselves better; they added Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess. Dallas got the Matrix and locked down Kidd for three whole years - and got Drew Gooden! Houston swapped Artest for Ariza and decided to do away with the feeling they would get in February of "Man, we're going good, hope Yao doesn't get hurt." New Orleans got Okafor for Chandler which is OK I guess, but (channeling sportsguy33) anytime you get a chance to trade one of your starters for a 2nd round pick seven years from now, you do it. (But let's not congratulate ourselves too much, that pick is conditional.) And Memphis made deals to get other teams under the luxury tax - aren't they team players!

On to the schedules!

Dallas

4-game weeks: 10
Minimum game weeks: 1
Playoff schedule: 4-4-3-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 21 - teams also at minimum this week: ORL, POR

Dallas's schedule has a few good stretches - weeks 3-6 where they play 15 games, and weeks 17, 18, and 19 where they have 4 games each. You can't complain about their fantasy playoff setup either. It lays out pretty nicely if you take Dirk in round 1, and Jason Kidd with his triple-double potential can be pretty solid since they aren't stuck with a lot of 2 game weeks. It's a veteran team, so don't expect any sleepers to jump out and show themselves from the free agent pool. Marion had a better season in retrospect last year, and likely will be drafted in a better spot than round 1. Erick Dampier is online banking now and will be logging in every 15th of the month to see if his paycheck cleared. I hope Josh Howard can do a few more things this year, but I would not be surprised if he isn't moved come February since his nearly $12M salary next year is on a team option (good agent work - I hope he's got a trade kicker in there).

That's really all I've got to say about the Mavs for now, but I will note that while searching on whether Josh Howard has a trade kicker (he doesn't) - yes, I'm easily sidetracked by salary nerdiness - I did see that Erick Dampier's contract for next year is unguaranteed if he does not make the All Star team or does not play in 2,100 minutes in his 70 highest minute games. ED has never played 2,100 minutes while wearing Mavericks blue. So Dampier and Howard provide Dallas with $21M of very movable contracts come trade deadline time. So while the team now is at least decently constructed, the March/April product can be quite different. And don't underestimate the power of movable contracts - the Lakers turned Kwame Brown's into 2 trips to the Finals. Thanks ShamSports!

Houston

4-game weeks: 11
Minimum game weeks: 2
Playoff schedule: 4-4-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 16 (AS week) - teams also at minimum this week: BOS, IND, MEM, NYK, OKC, PHX, TOR, WAS
Week 20 - teams also at minimum this week: ATL, LAL, PHX

People of the planet Houston! One has to wonder where the pure scoring is going to come from without the Yao and the McGrady. Stretches from Game 5 of the Finals aside, Ariza is not a scorer in the true sense. But he can still steal the ball, I'll give him that. Brooks looks like he'll be in the scoring point guard mold; we'll see how that goes for him. I like Scola - he'll be my consolation prize when I don't get David Lee in round 2 or 3 and I want the greasier haired Spanish speaking version of him a few rounds later.

But back to the schedule, and it's very interesting. Everything comes in bunches, 4-gamers weeks 3 + 4 and weeks 8 + 9, then all 3-gamers the month of January. By then, we should know who the Rockets are. After the 1-game All-Star week, Houston is seriously golden. By then, we could see McGrady, McGrady's expiring contract traded for something, the return of Yao, the one who becomes the dominant threat on offense, a return to relevance of Shane Battier, Aussie David Anderson, or the emergence of some of those 2nd round picks they bought this summer. This Rocket squad is going to be one to watch in Feb. and March.

Memphis

4-game weeks: 11
Minimum game weeks: 2
Playoff schedule: 3-3-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 9 - teams also at minimum this week: CHA, NJN, NOH, PHI, TOR
Week 16 (AS week) - teams also at minimum this week: BOS, HOU, IND, NYK, OKC, PHX, TOR, WAS

The reason I'll try to watch Memphis games on League Pass this year? No, not because they have good young talent. No, not because their opponents will have great nights against them. It's the local commercials, featuring the finest establishments of the Mid-South, like Carl Hogan Automotive in Columbus, MS (I gotta have DeLois Price).

Memphis has a decent enough schedule - their minimum game weeks have a lot of company, so you shouldn't get run over during these weeks. Their playoff sked ain't much to look at, but take out All-Star week and Memphis has 4-gamers from week 14 through week 20. And say what you will about Memphis, they do have fantasy relevant players. I had OJ Mayo for most of last year, and while I don't love him, I understand the lure - he played in every game and had double digit points in 75 of them. His long distance range is good and should only get better. He also likes getting to the line and converting once there. Good for you. You don't hear a lot about it, but Mike Conley was quite the fantasy player from early March 09 on - top 50 and approaching top 25 for that stretch. You fantasy players like n'est pas? Well he did that once last April, why not a few more times this year, preferably in the same week? I wouldn't say Rudy Gay was a bust last year, but we all know he can do better. I have a feeling that this summer of 2010 could be the wrong year to be a restricted free agent, but good luck to you anyways. Gasol the younger was good some games, great others, blech in still others. I wouldn't complain too much if he was my 2nd Center in a must have 2 C's league (I'd like him even better as a third C / Util in such a league for a big ball team and to screw someone else over). And Z-Bo's there! I think he got to Memphis a few years too late because the strip club scene in Memphis isn't as strong as it was 6-10 years ago. Or so I hear. But if anyone can score and rebound, at nudie bars or in arenas near a large river, it's Zach Randolph.

So no, this squad doesn't need AI to make it a fun team to watch, fantasy-wise.

New Orleans

4-game weeks: 13
Minimum game weeks: 4
Playoff schedule: 3-4-3-1

Minimum game weeks:
Week 5 - teams also at minimum this week: CHI
Week 6 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC, OKC, ORL, POR, SAS
Week 9 - teams also at minimum this week: CHA, MEM, NJN, PHI, TOR
Week 25 (last week of season, combined with week before) - teams also at minimum this week: CLE

Last year's Hornets schedule was strongly backloaded, with a lot of 4-gamers around the clubhouse turn. This year? What a hot mess. On the plus side, they have the most 4 game weeks of any team in the league, 13, same as New York. They have nice stretches of those games early on: weeks 2-4 and weeks 11-15. But they have 2-gamers back to back in weeks 5 and 6. The week 5 one is crippling, as only 1 other team (Chicago) has the same sitch, and 14 teams have 4 game weeks at that time. Week 6 is not so treacherous. The playoffs are treacherous - NO plays only 4 games in your finals week, while everyone else plays 5 or 6.

What does this mean for your fantasy team? Well, I like it for Chris Paul - he's almost schedule proof, as his counting stat strengths, assists and steals, can be hard to get, and if he gives you 24 assists and 5 steals in a 2-game week, that's almost as good if not better than your replacement 4-gamer. 2-game weeks hurt the guys like David West who excel in points and rebounds and percentages. The Hornets aren't deep fantasy-wise for your standard 10-13 round leagues- Paul, West, Okafor; maybe Posey and Wright. You can get by with West or Okafor or Wright on your bench for a couple of weeks. Let's see about supporting Paul, looking at who plays max games in weeks 5 and 6: Dallas, Milwaukee, New York, and Toronto.

Let's eliminate Milwaukee - they have no one you'd take at 24 or 25 (12 team league, you have pick #1 and take Paul) or 48/49 for that matter. Dallas - you aren't getting Dirk, but Terry, Marion, and Kidd could certainly help in the next few rounds. New York - you'd have to take a good look at David Lee, then maybe Al Harrington. Toronto - you're not getting Bosh, but I'd put Calderon on my squad any day of the week (preferably Sunday night when lineups lock for the week ahead).

Now you want to take care of your playoff finals, since you will be in the finals, right? Who plays 6 games in the last 2 weeks?

Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Golden State, Houston, Memphis, Milwaukee, New York, Oklahoma City, Philadelphia, San Antonio, Toronto, Washington.

As you can see, you don't need to go out of your way to draft Paul backup, and you shouldn't 5 months away from the playoffs. Just keep it in mind as the All-Star Game approaches.

San Antonio

4-game weeks: 11
Minimum game weeks: 2
Playoff schedule: 4-4-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 2 - teams also at minimum this week: none
Week 6 - teams also at minimum this week: LAC, NOH, OKC, ORL, POR

San Antone starts the year game-wise off slow. Week 2, they have the only 2 game week, and half the league plays 4. San Antonio is loaded at the end, finishing the year with max games from weeks 20 through 25: 4-4-4-4-4-2. If you remember last year, and if you had Duncan on your squad, you do, Coach Pop rested Duncan and/or Parker and/or Ginobli in instances when they had back to back games late in the year. Gee, ya think he'll still do that now that they all are a year older? Maybe. That's why I'm leery of having Duncan on my squad as a high pick this year. 2nd or 3rd round? No, I need a guy I can count on or get value back in a trade come February. Maybe 4th or 5th. Parker? I'll still take him, but at an appropriate time and if I have a team punting 3's and such. Ginobli? Meh.

Does that mean Spurs aren't worth having? Nosiree. Late in the year, I'm looking at guys who will get an uptick late in the year with increased PT, mainly for standard or deep leagues. Antonio McDyess, George Hill, and Roger Mason could all look better in the 2nd half than on draft day. And no, I haven't forgotten about Richard Jefferson. He won't put up numbers like last year, but I can't severely downgrade him, just because I can't see him being rested in the latter months. The Spurs, like the Rockets, need to be watched in the closing weeks.

Thus endth the Southwest Division. Coming next, the ever exciting Northwest Division - they have a team in Utah!

And in honor of the Four Fingers of Fantasy Guide coming out today on Give Me The Rock, here's a cheerleader photo. Dance!