Friday, September 18, 2009

09/10 Schedules - Pacific Division

This division has everything! The defending champs, a rebuilding team headed for the lottery, a team with a coach who could play anyone and everyone and still finish 11th, and a couple of veteran-laden teams that will make a good push but will most likely be making hotel reservations before a game on in mid-April (as a best case scenario). Let's see how their schedules look for the upcoming fantasy season.

Golden State

4-game weeks: 10
Minimum game weeks: 1
Playoff schedule: 4-3-4-2

Minimum game weeks:
Week 1 - teams also at minimum this week: IND, MIL, UTA

Week one is rough, but after that, you can get a lot of mileage out of Golden State. They never play more than two 4-game weeks in a row, and they have a span of four weeks from mid-Dec. to mid-Jan. where they play 3-games. Their style of play, though, can often make a Golden State 3-game week as valuable, if not more so, as a 4-game week for a team like Detroit. The key here is figuring out who is getting the minutes (and where, if extra position eligibility helps you (for Yahoo leagues whose position eligibilities are quite fluid to your benefit, not ESPN whose leagues lock in eligibility at the start of the season (let me know if they changed this from last year))). Captain Jack led the league in minutes played last year; he'd be the first one you could count on playing a lot, but him playing a lot equals him missing shots a lot and him turning it over a lot. #2 is Monta Ellis. If you were going to target a Warrior, he's the one you want. The last 2 months of the year, he was a top 25 player. He's not going to give you three's, but rebounds and steals the ball quite well for a PG. If someone in your league drafts Derrick Rose ahead of him, say thank you very much and take all moped jokes in stride. Right now on Yahoo! drafts, Ellis is being taken 9 spots behind Rose (40.3 vs. 49.3). Ray Zalinski's American Public is putting too much stock into round 1 of last year's playoffs against the Celtics, I think.

Andris Biedrins is the Warriors other top 50ish player. I think you know what you are getting with him by now. And if someone asks you for your sleeper, don't say Anthony Randolph. Not that he's not a fine player, but maybe you'll be in a league where everyone kinda forgets about him. Stephen Curry is another player on my rookie hold list. Feel free to draft him in the "bench" level of your draft; I don't think he'll have any real value until playing rotations shake out (good luck in that on the Nelson bench) or until the inevitable Corey Maggette injury.

The Warriors schedule is such that it precludes picking someone up for a 3 or 4 week run of 4-gamers. But picking up a hot Warrior is now de rigeur for fantasy players this half of the decade, so you have to keep an eye out for Azubuike, Morrow, Watson, Turiaf, and Wright. What, I didn't mention Acie Law or Speedy Claxton or Devean George? Yeah, how 'bout them Clippers!

Los Angeles Clippers

4-game weeks: 12
Minimum game weeks: 3
Playoff schedule: 3-4-3-2

Week 6 - teams also at minimum this week: NOH, OKC, ORL, POR, SAS
Week 7 - teams also at minimum this week: MIA, NYK, WAS
Week 10 - teams also at minimum this week: DET

Gasp! I almost sorta like this team. Not in a let's-talk-about-their-playoff-chances like, I mean still-crappy-but-is-on-the-rise-and-has-decent-fantasy-players like. I'll take Eric Gordon on my team for the right price. Camby is still a viable fantasy big man. As far as I know, Kaman can still play. Hey, Baron Davis ain't so bad. I'm less of an Al Thornton fan after last year, but on the right squad he could be okay. Go ahead and throw Rasual Butler in the late bench rounds of your draft, he won't be half bad. Blake Griffin will be another overdrafted rookie, which is just fine by this guy. Maybe even the guys they got from Minnesota, Smith and Telfair, can produce.

So there are things to work with. The Clips have a lot of 4 game weeks, so when the injuries happen - and oh yes, they will happen - you could score with a few Clipperinos. They have two spans of three 4-game weeks in a row, once in Jan. and once in late Feb./early March. The Clippers are well under the luxury tax line, have expirings, and if they were a much more savvy organization, they could produce a lot of fantasy opportunity in that late Feb./early March time. I'm not counting on it, but it's there.

Los Angeles Lakers

4-game weeks: 11
Minimum game weeks: 2
Playoff schedule: 3-4-3-2

Week 17 - teams also at minimum this week: none
Week 20 - teams also at minimum this week: ATL, HOU, PHX

NBA Champeens! I hear they got some guy Bryant and a Spaniard - Maximus I think. I was dead wrong last year, thinking that Gasol would shrink next to Bynum. I'd like to think that both would do well, but that shouldn't be the case. Could this be the year that their lack of point guardiness comes up to bite them? Maybe not, but the PG spot on the Lake Show is nigh worthless for fantasy. Man, I would have loved Ariza on this team. Artest? Good luck with that. He'll score and all, but I won't be surprised to see a few 4-11's from the field with 4 TO's, and that's really not going to help you too much.

Anyway, the two minimum game weeks for the Lakers come right after the All-Star break. Right before the break, they have 4-game weeks in weeks 10, 11, 13, 14, and 15. They should be rolling through their schedule then, so if you have one of their big fellas on your roster, ride them out until they play a game in Jerrah Jones's cavern. I'd keep an eye out for Farmar, Walton, and maybe even the Machine, just in case someone gets hurt (cough, Bynum) or something.

Phoenix

4-game weeks: 11
Minimum game weeks: 2
Playoff schedule: 3-4-3-2

Week 16 (All-Star week) - teams also at minimum this week: BOS, HOU, IND, MEM, NYK, OKC, TOR
Week 20 - teams also at minimum this week: ATL, HOU, LAL


Now here's a team you can wrap yourself up in fantasy-wise. A few guys in the top half of the draft (Amar'e, Nash, Richardson), guys who can fill out needs in your roster (Hill, Barbosa), and guys to watch out for in case something crazy happens (Frye, Dudley, Lopez). This team's a shell of its 2005 self, but still not one you'd want to play on the second game of back to back roadies.

Phoenix has a pretty nice schedule for H2H this year (after last year's 1 game week during Christmas - who let that happen?). Their minimum game weeks shouldn't do much damage, as one occurs during All-Star week. They have two runs on either side of the break of 4-gamers three weeks in a row, weeks 12-14 and weeks 17-19. And while their playoff schedule doesn't jump out at you, keep in mind that the first week of the playoffs (week 22), they have 3 games, but those three games are @Golden State, New York, and @ Minnesota. At the Suns pace, that can be better than a lot of 4-game weeks.

(Here's a good a time as any to say it. I have been basing playoff schedule according to how Yahoo! has always done it - 1st round week 22, semis week 23, finals combination of weeks 24 and 25. Well, now Yahoo! has gotten a little wise and you can have a li'l more flexibility in that playoff schedule. I know a lot of leagues won't change, but make sure you know when your playoffs are. Because I believe know is two-fifths or up to half of the battle.)

Sacramento

4-game weeks: 10
Minimum game weeks: 1
Playoff schedule: 4-3-3-2

Week 3 - teams also at minimum this week: IND, MIL, WAS

Screw it, I've almost had enough of these. The Kings roster is quite pre-AI Memphisian in that you've got a lot of guys who can do things for your fantasy squad, but in real life they suck. Kevin Martin screwed over a lot of people last year by getting hurt - don't do it again or someone will go out there and .. hurt you. Spencer Hawes will be taken in your draft, but no one will say, "Whoa, a little early for that!" nor "He was still on the board?" because he will be taken exactly where he should and may even win a week or two for you. Tyreke Evans is going to do some things on the court this year (who else will they play, Beno Udrih?) and I like him more than a lot of rookies that people will reach on. And if you don't do it on draft day, sometime soon keep an eye on Jason Thompson and Francisco Garcia. Garcia is the type of guy who can win you your league with all the stuff he can do if minutes are available, which they should be in Sac-town. And is there a food that Sacramento is famous for? Because if there is, Sean May will probably eat it. A lot of it.

The Kings have one minimum game week early, and other than that, 4 game weeks are spread out like New Jersey's so you never get a good run of those weeks. Like New Jersey, they will be gunning to get 250 out of 1,001 combinations of 14 ping pong balls. It's a shame that right now, the #1 pick is projected to be a point guard. Maybe that would work with Evans. The key to this season will be injuries. We know they will be teh suck, but if a couple of guys go down, someone could get a boatload of minutes and put up really good numbers, maybe Garcia, Thompson, or who knows.


Anyway, the point of this exercise was to look at the schedules of teams at some point in the draft season to look at what you are getting into, so you don't have crappy schedules jump up at you. I don't know about you, but Imma itchin' to draft!

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